Here are the
EXTERNAL outcomes from what Poutine did...All in one week...
- Remind NATO of its original raison d'etre
- Got NATO to reorganize its forces
- Got NATO to rethink its budget
- Pushed neutral Finland and Sweden towards NATO
- Ruined Russian civil aviation
- Further ruined Russian economy
- Degrade Russian global image
- Revealed flaws and ineffectiveness of the Russian military
Granted, maybe item 8 is debatable because it may came from Poutine's originally restrained battle plans. But if that is true, then Poutine should have stayed a spy and left warfighting to the generals.
By sheer numerical superiority, Russia will take Ukraine. But Russia needs Ukraine and by 'needs', I mean Ukraine must be as functional a country as soon as possible in order to act as a geopolitical buffer. In this, there is little difference between Iraq and Afghanistan because the US needed both countries to be as functional as soon as possible under US guidance for Afghanistan not becoming a terrorist haven and Iraq not becoming a predatory state. Whether the US succeeded or not, there are plenty of existing discussions already so I will not get into those subjects here. Back in 1991, Desert Storm ground war lasted from Feb 24 to 28. On the 28th, the US declared a cease fire. Prior to the cease fire, Desert Storm air campaign lasted 30 days before the ground war. We do not see anything similar Ukraine. There was no 'shock and awe' but more like 'schlock and awshuck' from the Russian military. But by sheer numerical superiority, Russia will win.
So aside from the list of external outcomes, what can we expect from the coming guerrilla warfare? I do not believe the Ukrainians will be any less motivated than the Iraqi and Afghanistan insurgencies. The difference is that the Ukrainian insurgency will be much better supported in terms of global moral outrage, international finance, and qualitatively superior weapons. When Iraq fell, the ME did not got angry but actually breathed a sigh of relief. With Poutine, it is the opposite. Now tension increased, especially after Poutine made the nuclear alertness comment. Support for the Ukrainian insurgency will be even more assured.