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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

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Nah, not gonna happen, Russia will win, there are not much of a fight, they will probably lose the initial contact, but they can just call another group. I can't see how Ukraine not crumble under this pressure. As my assessment said, Ukraine probably have 10% chance to come out of this war winning.

The problem is, even if Russia win, they still lost. Because the price to win is making them a pariah, and Central Asian country may shift to China even if Russia did not. NATO lost nothing in Ukraine (They were never theirs) but will probably gain Sweden and Finland or even Bosnia and Georgia as a member (Both Bosnia and Georgia are in latter stage of NATO membership application than Ukraine) . That creeps into Russia even more.

Ukrainians put up an insurgency after Stalin took control for 10 years. A diet of potatoes and vodka keeps the gas tank going apparently.
 
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This explicitly means two things.

1.) Everybody need an alliance. You go neutral, you are the odd man out.
2.) Appeasement does not work.

Set aside Putin narrative for war (I keep telling people this war is not about Ukraine, nobody cares...anyway) what Putin want is not what Putin want, he want to stay on top of things, he wanted to be in control, but that is one thing he can control people within his border, it is another thing he can control the action outside his border, you can say this is where is insecurity come from, while we all accept the fact that people have independent thinking. He can't. This is not about ego, this is not about what other people do, this, the entire wat, is about CONTROL.

Things is when you ignore other people will and try to control them, they, well, fight back. I sincerely think Putin thought all these people will just drop their arms and go home when he tell them to. Otherwise there are no reasonable explanation that he would actually start this war. This is a zero gain war, basically, in specific term, even Putin win this war, he will lost the batter against NATO, you don't even need a general or half competent politician to see that.

As for Ukraine, Ukraine was a threat to Russia (At least in Putin Mind) is because they are neutral. He can take either they are with them, or they are against them. But neutral give Putin a extra layer of uncertainty, will they turn? will they remain? What will they do? All these question is what playing trick in his mind, not knowing is actually worse then they are hostile.

I don't know if that make sense to you....
If that was the case Russia wouldn't have sent in an army of 200K + to invade Ukraine and blast them with cruise missiles , thermobarbaric bombs etc-"I sincerely think Putin thought all these people will just drop their arms and go home when he tell them to. "
 
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Translation by someone in the comment:

"7.30 this morning I got a call from the commander of a Russian battalion, offering to keep all the infrastructure intact and help maintain order in the city without any impact on the civilians, or face an assault on the city. I agreed."


Someone should update the doomsday clock.
It's set at around year ~2250. So I am relaxed. No nuclear war is going to end the world.:angel:
 
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This is my thought to make Kiev to surrender. Russian don't need to enter the city.
1. Cut the electricity
2. Cut the internet
3. Cut the water supply
4. Cut the food supply chain to the city
5. Cut the telecommunication to the city.
6. Cut the medical supply.
7. Put jammer around the city so no telecommunication device can active.
8. Then terror the nerve of the defenders to destroy their morale. Make they feel hopeless.

Look how long can they stand on their guard. I'm sure Russian know this already.

We are still withholding firepower and that kind of tactics, I believe this is because we are trying to limit the civilian causalities. But soon we won't have any options left, because this will result in huge losses of military personal. I hope Ukrainian government will change it mind soon.
 
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If the nato and the U.S keep moving weapons in Ukraine. Russian could also screw the west with weapon proliferation all over the world to countries that are unfriendly to the west as well. Both side will get hurt and the world just became a much more dangerous place from now on.
 
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Moral is high



Kyiv is not completely surrounded yet. A major Russian push from the south towards the north is still needed, there are still strategic locations in the surroundings of Kyiv that need to be taken before we can speak about 'surrounding'. Process of Russian Army is steadily.
 
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Most likely surplus MiGs and Sukhois ... at least at first
It will only be soviet kit because they need kit UAF pilots can just jump in and fly.

So that will be Mig-29’s from Slovakia, Bulgaria and Poland.
 
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