Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[Steppe Wolff]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497943818024501252

 

[jhungary]

Sir,

1. Why the Russian Military has underestimated the Ukraine resistance capability ?

2. From observation, it looks like the Russians don’t have any plans and training in combine warfare for build up areas, do you agree ? And if so why is that so ?

3. Why the Russians were not capable of gaining air superiority?

4. Why the Russians are underestimating and ignorant regarding the fluency of NATO weapons into Ukraine? Would the the Russians take steps against that ?

5. Did the Russians not calculated the ESINT help of NATO to Ukraine? Will they do something about that ?

6. Are this Russian units the “we’ll trained” forces ? Because sometimes ones get the impression It’s just a paper Tiger forces

7. My impression is that the Russians have ignored their logistical war planing, regarding the protection of supplies lines

8. Russian convoy movement looks something like a rag tag Army, without convoy movement discipline and protection

Does all the points which you have described in your analysis and which the layman can obeserve regarding the weaknesses of the Russian military and their misconceptions and miscalculation let us to the conclusion that the Russians Military was never an par in Quality with the NATO ?

Best regards

Thanks for your question. You don't need to call me sir unless you planned to enlist

Anyway, I try my best to answer your question.

1.) Now before I say anything, I am not going to pretend I know what's Russia is doing, I wasn't trained by the Russian, I was trained by the US, which follow NATO Doctrine. I did study how Russia or Soviet Union conduct war extensively, so I probably have some insight on their mind on operation.

Now, going back to your question, why Russia has underestimated Ukraine warfighting capability? Well, many different issue. The usual suspect is failure to collect relevant intelligence, failure to interpret said intelligence, over estimate their own combat capability, all the way down to general laziness.

However, I think (again, I don't know, so take it anyway as you will) the major reason why the Russian underperform is because they have to, the were tied by their own perspective. The Russia see this war as a liberation, which mean they cannot just went in with all the troop and swarm the entire country, that is evident that the Russian troop in Brest had not move to cut off Western Ukraine from Lviv to Odessa. Because once they did that, they will virtually cut off the entire country, no supplies could come in and out of Ukraine, people are stuck there. Which would create a humanitarian problem the Russian Public do not want. Which mean by that, they can't really deal with the issue head on.

The entire operational planning is to have Ukraine submit by separating military and civilian, but that planning is based on faulty intelligence, if you understand what I am talking about.

2.) Yes, I don't think Russia is trained on MOUT (Military Operation in Urban Terrain) also, they can't do what the usual Soviet Doctrine dictated on Ukraine. which is level the city and by-pass the city center, and starve the residence into submission. They can't really do that in Ukraine....

3.) I think the core problem is what I have been saying for a long time, both on PDF and elsewhere, the dependence on cruise and tactical missile. Notice that Russia seems to try to preserve the Airforce and not fly their plane as much as they uses missile. While you can destroy hard target but missile being a point to point attacking tool, the damage is limited. Which mean damage done to them can be repaired quickly. Take a look on this Satellite Photo of Chuhuiv Airbase (near Kharkiv) after missile strike on the 24th February

You can see the airport being hit and black smoke bellowing from the control tower or some sort of administration building area. But the airfield is largely intact, with proper Field Traffic Control, this airport is "Operational" until the runway is render useless or the airport itself is taken by the Russian (which I think they did, but don't quote me on that)

The over reliant on missile contribute to the effectiveness of air campaign. That is the reason why the Russian are having trouble taking Air Superiority. The only real way to do that is to fly 24/7 sorties all the way around Ukraine, but that will expose Russian fighter with SAM and other Anti-Air Asset.

4.) That I can't tell you. I can guess, probably the reason is that Russia brush aside the effectiveness of those NATO weapon being handed to Ukraine. Either they have not studied how we run into trouble with our Bradley and Abrams on Iraqi with RPG in tight corner, and now Ukrainian are doing the same to Russia using RPG, N-LAW and Javelin. Or they somehow think their tank are better defended against those handheld ATGM than the American Tank? That is probably the best answer I can tell you, as for why they do what I think they did? I honestly don't know, that depends on their military tradition, and as I said, I am not trained with it.

5.) I think they did, they have anticipated NATO help with intelligence front in general, using all available technology at their disposal, flying EMINT sorties, Using Satellite and anything from SIGINT to HUMINT. But there are pretty much nothing Russia can do to that directly because that would involve attacking NATO asset. The only thing Russia can do is to cut off communication between NATO and Ukraine, which is nearly impossible in this information age.

6.) As with any military, some unit are well train and some unit are not. In Russia case, there are draftee and professional soldier. Current intelligence suggest that 20% of those are national serviceman, which mean the quality of Russian troop are uneven. Depends on what Russia actually sent to Ukraine, quality can vary.

However, judging by numerous video leaked/released on purpose, I have a feeling that Russian soldier in theatre is not taking the war seriously. If you have seen a video about a Ukrainian in a car driven by a BMP that run out of fuel and he ask "If he can tow him back to Russia"? That exchange would not have happened if Russian are taking this seriously, I am not saying the soldier should have shoot the man, but I am saying they would have wave him off and not taking a friendly stance. That suggest the war we saw and the war Russian told to its soldier are two different thing.

7.) Yes, especially when they split the advance up into 3, that mean you have 3 logistical responsibility instead of one. General Westly Clark commented on a TV program today saying Russia is choosing the complicated way to invade Ukraine, his guess is that Russia want to finish this operation ASAP, but that mean you now have 3 logistic problem instead of 1. Also, traditional Soviet tactics uses a large armor column to sweep thru the area with overwhelming power, this would not do well unless Russia can catch up with their logistic operation. And that is an issue if they split their force in 3.

In my assessment, I said Day 7 would be D-Day on this war, because by then we will know how much Russia have prepared for in terms of logistic, by Day 7, the Russian should have exhausted what they brought with them, which will expose their logistic problem if they have any, because if they didn't prepare and cannot catch up, the whole operation will fall apart, and Ukraine can really win this thing, normally I would not think this is going to be that but seeing how Russian fight, I am not too sure now.

8.) Well, I think that goes back to my answer to question 6. They act like they are on peacekeeping mission (Which ironically is what Putin tell the world, maybe they did tell the troop that? I don't know) instead of an invasion. The convoy run without flank security and forward security in warzone would most likely be ambush or cut to piece. You don't run convoy like that or you will end up like what happened to Jessica Lynch (Her convoy was lost and ambushed and wipe out by Iraqi near Nasiriyah.

From my perspective, this does not live up to the Russian army hype. I think it's safe to say most Military Pundit like me or anyone else would expect a quick victory seeing how enormous different between the Armed Force of Russia and the Armed Force of Ukraine. But I don't see the advantage show in this war. I don't see effective communication, effective deployment of force or even appraisal of the entire situation.

Now that said, this operation is not going to be representing the true capability of Russia. As there are a lot of thing they can do and a lot of thing they cannot do. But all in all, I don't see at least in this war. Russia is as strong as they projected.

I hope I have answered your question in a satisfactory manner. If you have any other question, please feel free to ask.

 

[RescueRanger]

###

Air to Air missile?

Looks like It's a SMERCH rocket:

 

[jamahir]

Russian bombers wouldn't even dare to fly near Ukraine... they are centuries old junk with non functional precision guidance systems... and now Western Anti Air MANPADS (that actually works unlike Russian junk) started arriving in large numbers, chances of air raids becoming more unlikely.

So why is India purchasing, or has purchased, the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft systems ?

 

[jhungary]

This is what Russians need to be careful about.Instead of going after big cities for propaganda victories ,they need to cut this Ukrainian access to Europe from which resupply would eventually flow. They need to make an amphibious assualt and seize the western regions.

things is, I think they can't.

Russia need to look at public support of this war, if they cut that off (As I said on my reply to a member, they have 40k troop in Brest, and their job is to cut down south and secure the Western Corridor between Lviv and Odessa and cut off Ukraine access to Europe. ) If they do that. they drop their pretence of helping the people of Ukraine, because that move is to contain Ukraine. Make sure nobody come in and nobody leave.

What do you think if you are Russian, probably have relative in Ukraine, and then your government do that?

Russian weapons are dud...

Well, everything is a dud if you don't use it

 

[Piotr]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497941501959102468

Donetsk forces will use this weapons against US-founded Neonazis, not against Ukrainians. Patriotic Ukrainians support Donetsk forcies. Patriotic Ukrainians are against US-founded Banderovites.

 

[jhungary]

Chechen war and Syria, Russia did it and won. Must have gotten experience with the battle of Berlin.

All I can say is Ukraine is not Chechen and Syria, you probably have no idea how much Russian (Normal Russian, not Putin) is connected to Ukraine.

There are going to be a lot of opposition if and when Russia level Ukraine. Russian census data show 1/3 of people living in Russia are either of Ukraine Heritage him/herself or have relative living in Ukraine.

 

[Mad Scientist 2.0]

Not directly linked with war. But extraordinary times create extraordinary examples.

Medical student from Haryana refuses to leave Ukraine, says will take care of house owner’s kids as he joins war - The Tribune

Sunit Dhawan Rohtak, February 26 It is a tale of human values, compassion and universal brotherhood — or sisterhood, precisely in this case — which bind us together even during a war. A girl from Haryana, who is studying medicine...

m.tribuneindia.com

 

[1ndy]

So why is India purchasing, or has purchased, the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft systems ?

because of hype

 

[Spetsnaz.frog]

Situation map update around kiev

 

[dBSPL]

British Foreign Secretary Elizabeth Truss said she would unconditionally support individual Brits who decide to go to war with Russian troops in Ukraine

Liz Truss ‘absolutely’ supports individual Brits going to fight in Ukraine

‘Of course that is something that people can make their own decisions about’

www.independent.co.uk

Special forces will begin to cross into Ukraine in 'volunteers' packaging. If Putin does not put an end to this, a new Syria will be created in the middle of Europe.

 

[jhungary]

Not since Afghanistan. They have already have some experience in Chechnya and Georgia. And recently they have some military operation in Syria, to help Assad.

Chenchen, Syria and Georgia is not the same tho, those are non-peer enemy. Ukraine on the other hand is a peer enemy, they know how the Russian operate and big enough to put up reasonable resistance.

Yeah mate they will fight under the rubble.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497720949227102210

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497834430659919872

That's why Azov is killing civilians who try to flee (there are videos I will not post as it may be against the rules) and the government is calling for foreign volunteers to help them fight. Those are the actions of a well motivated population.

And that was my entire point, that's why they are not carrying out those kinds of tactics, to the point that their own forces are criticizing the policy.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497920342815350784

Please do not quote me again.

 

[Messerschmitt]

Why doesn't the march have to do with Libya and Syria ? I again ask, if that was really an anti-war march then the wars in Libya and Syria should have been mentioned too. Are they not happening on Earth ?

Okay, I think now I get your point. So your main problem is the fact that the tweet described the protests as being "anti-war" (in general) even though it was directed against the Russian invasion of Ukraine specifically and not all wars happening in the world collectively, right? Well, you can call it an "anti war against Ukraine" protest instead if you like. I think calling a protest against a war happening "anti-war" is reasonable.

Are there not wars going on there which, which were initiated by NATO whose one member is your country Germany's government and military ? Or will you only talk of wars not initiated by NATO ?

Again, this thread is about the "Russia-Ukraine War". If you like to have discussions about other wars, feel free to do so in their respective thread.

 

[The SC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497701300368289792

 

[Taimoor Khan]

Not our fault if the Soviet Union and China REFUSED to help Iraq. It is not as if Iraq did not know that it was going to be SEVERELY outnumbered. And where was your Pakistan? But then again, maybe after Moscow and Beijing ran the numbers, they decided to say FU to Baghdad. This is war, not a boxing match. In wars, you gain numerical superiority in both hardware and manpower whenever and with whoever you can, failure and/or refusal to do so, do not complain if you lose. And as for the peanut gallery -- YOU -- mocking the winners when you lost no skin in the game just made you look foolish and ignorant.

Clam your t!ts down kid.

First understand and READ the background of statement. What I wrote was in regards to some American poodles moaning that hey look its been three days and Ruskies havent occupied Ukraine yet. They have failed already! It was in response to remind all these idiots with memory lapses as to how long it took yanks and its allies to occupy Iraq? Iraq which was left on it's own (unlike Ukraine), an Iraq with every neighbour fingering it all over, an Iraq which got ZERO support of any sort, an Iraq which got no military industries like Ukraine, an Iraq which got bombed indiscriminately by yanks and its allies. While you at it, remind us all how long it took to occupy it?

Savy?