So lets talk geopolitics.
Situation januari:
Europe and russia starting closer ties. Germany close to open nordstream 2 (despite american pressure)
European defense spending/readiness all time low.
Usa/EU relations weakened (thanks to trump and continuing differing interests)
Capacity gas supplied to europe 10 times that compared to gas to china
Ukraine in frozen conflict. Seeking closer ties eu and nato, but still remaining far away in this process.
Now russia COULD have sought diplomacy and trade to resolve matters with ukraine, then gain immense wealth through trade and european integration.
HOWEVER, they preferred their “stick and..stick” apporach..what the soviets always had done and why so many former warsaw pact came running and screaming to nato for protection.
Sure…if they could have pulled off a full takeover in a week…things would return somewhat to normal. By the time the EU would have finished their first debate things would be over already.
(though still high risk of long insurgancy and long troubled relations/sanctions).
However now russia is:
100 days in a war of attrition with no exit in sight. High russian losses of men and military equipment…constant inflow of arms and support for ukraine.
Under heavy long term sanctions…from their main customers….now thanks to the post corona trade issues this disruption is good for resource prices…in a few years they will lose most of their market. And china will then be able to set the price…
Nation building moment in ukraine…against russian influence. Full in western camp now.
Usa gained the opportunity to get europa back in its grasp
As a result of russian aggression, nato is set to expand with multiple countries.
Nato vs russian military spending was already heavily lopsided….now europe is doubling defence spending…dwarfing the russian spending even more.
European/russian ties heavily damaged for many years.
A complete disaster really….the pain is buffered by the high resource prices (eu did unfortunately not stock up on gas…the idiots…) but this will be temporary. Russia will get hit militarily, economically, and in prestige that will set them back decades.
Winners? USA, China.
Losers? Russia, Ukraine, EU, third world nations (food prices)