Battlion25
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Mariupol is the what we called "Convergent" between Russian Southern Force (From Crimea), Russian Northern Force (From Kharkiv) and Separatist Troop from the East
View attachment 825674
At this point majority of the Russian troop are pinned in Mariupol, they can by-pass it but it they would have to leave troop to pin Mariupol Defender in place, otherwise they will just breakout and hammer Russian rear. Which mean at this point the Russia troop so sorely needed to crush the blue line (The 6 Ukrainian Battalion position at the pre-war demarcation line ) is stuck in Mariupol they cant move until the city is taken.
Once the city is taken, then it free up troops on 3 fronts. and it will allow the Russian freedom of movement to either crush the Blue Line above Mariupol, or go North and take Kharkiv or Go West to try and take Dnipro (Probably not going to do that, if it was me, i will go after the 6 Battalions)
Which mean if I am Ukrainian defence. If I lost Mariupol, that comes a question would I want to leave that blue line (in black circle) to stay there, and potential get crushed by a double envelopment. Or should I withdraw them and put them along the defensive line across the river with the Southern Defender (The Red Circle) If I do that, then I will basically leave the Entire South East open to the Russian, if I don't do that, I risk my troop getting defeat in detail because Russia is going to overwhelm all the position 1 by 1 by local superiority.
View attachment 825679
I think they will leave that line and retreat towards kiev