Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[Clutch]

 

[gambit]

Russia has air superiority...

Does not.

...and Tu-22 and Tu-95 are all out of range of manpads.

We know that.

Russia so far has not been using mass bombing to limit destruction and damage.

More like because of the lack of PGM. Not because Russia is 'humane'. The major problem with using dumb bombs is that the tactic actually take longer to accomplish what you want, and what you want is enemy submission, not destroying stuff. Destroying wide swaths of land can compel that surrender. But so does destroying more specific targets that will cost you less munition and time while still getting the same behavior.

I don't know why western propaganda and social media keeps creating the idea and illusion that Russia does not have air superiority.

Maybe it is the truth and not illusion.

Russia operates aircraft and even helicopters and drones without resistance although they are attacked and occasionally shot down by manpads and other short range weapons but they do not have resistance and contesting airspace from Ukrainian Airforce.

As of now, there is no need for the Ukrainian Air Force to contend with the VKS mano-a-mano. But consider history of Desert Storm vs Viet Nam. US airpower faced an air defense system that was Soviet sourced same as North Viet Nam, and yet in DS the US lost 75 aircrafts vs thousands over North Viet Nam. In both air theaters, the US dominated numerically and operated whenever it wanted. Until or unless the VKS conduct operations like the US over VN and Iraq, the Ukrainian Air Force should leave air defense to ground forces and take its few fighters straight to Russian ground forces.

Russia probably wants to keep big cities and infrastructure intact.

Not according to the latest news. Why shelling civilian buildings?

Fact is Russia has total air dominance and resistance to that doesn't count as they don't have air dominance.

Then why are Ukrainian jets continues to sortie? Back in DS, some Iraqi jets made flights to Iran and the reason was because we did not get to them quick enough. But Ukrainian jets are not escaping but flying to attack Russian ground forces. If Ukrainian fighters can attack Russian ground forces, they can also challenge the VKS in the air, and for now, it is better to go after Russian ground forces.

If during the last 20 years of US war in Afghanistan had Russia and China both constantly giving Taliban free and plentiful manpads, the US would lose many more aircraft or at least create so much trouble for their mission planning that they have to go high only. Taliban's left over stingers from Mujahideens forced USAF to operate higher.

Russia doesn't have the luxury of time. If they want to stay in Ukraine and fight for another 19 years like US did in Afghanistan then yeah sure go high and minimize losses. Some dumb people want to compare orange with apple and say apple is more crisp lol.

Sorry, but that does not compute. Russia do not have the luxury of time, and yet, Russia self restrained because Russia want to keep intact 'big cities and infrastructure' and that Russia do not want to hurt the Ukrainians too much.

Even in Syria, Israelis lost an F-16 with conflict that isn't even 1/1000 the scale and intensity of this Ukraine Russia one. If Iraqis had 1000s of manpads shipped in constantly over months, the USAF wouldn't have been able to win the high technology war so quickly either.

Then what is preventing China from helping Russia to provide overwhelming odds against the Ukrainians and their US supplied MANPADS?

If it is true that Poutine fired several generals and house arrest his FSB chief, the mental contortions people go thru to try to salvage face for the Russian military is entertainment and nothing more.

 

[Wood]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504927427230904320

 

[Titanium100]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1505198979339980804

Lmao.. This reminds me about a vulture

 

[NotSure]

 

[monitor]

Anti-Tank Guided Cat (ATGC

 

[khansaheeb]

Yes for the first time in my life, I consider the possibility of a full blown nuclear war realistic. That is a terrifying thought.

Yes, It almost started last week when the stupid Indians fired a nuclear capable missile at Pakistan. It's the closest the world has come to use of a nuclear weapon use since Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Indians don't realise how lucky they were not to have New Delhi and Mumbai wiped off the map. I don't know Pakistan's Nuclear doctrine whether it is all for one or one for one exchange but it would be interesting to know.

 

[thetutle]

The assets of Western shareholders from EU and US got wiped out. Russia has frozen shares of Russian companies owned by EU and US citizens for value of $250 billion. And $40 billion of annual dividend payments.

Is this what makes you so happy?

Its fine by me. What did they expect would happen if they invest in Russia.

Enjoy their 250 billion. Congratulations. Its not yours.

 

[Titanium100]

Anti-Tank Guided Cat (ATGCView attachment 825634

 

[tower9]

Its fine by me. What did they expect would happen if they invest in Russia.

Enjoy their 250 billion. Congratulations. Its not yours.

Actually what is unprecedented here is the seizure of personal assets by the western countries. Just think about what kind of message this sends to rich Chinese, Arabs, Pakistanis, Africans about what would happen if your country runs foul of the west and their messianic ideology?

 

[Titanium100]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1505370963545767937

 

[gambit]

I didn't make any declarations. The original statement was: why isn't Russia bombing NATO for supplying weapons causing them heavy losses? I replied, US didn't bomb China either even though China supplied Vietnam which caused heavy US losses. Which is a fact. The US did not bomb China during the Vietnam War.

And you guys tell me to study history? The US did bomb North Vietnamese supply lines, the most prominent one is the Ho Chi Minh Trail which ran thru Laos and Cambodia. The reason why the US did not bomb Chinese soil was because of the Geneva Convention that governs certain rights and duties of neutral powers. The word 'neutral' here denote participation, not any ideological/political biases.

It is one thing to use historical precedents, which is what you did, it is another to actually know and understand the reasons why that are applicable to the current situation without resorting to historical precedents, which is what you do not know how and why.

Then you come in and say that those losses are mostly due to PAVN air defense - which is 100% true but unrelated to the original reply. Those air defenses were supplied by China and Russia, not domestic to Vietnam. Furthermore you say that VKS cannot control the sky over Ukraine. OK, my question is then, if VKS can't control the sky how come Ukrainian fixed wings aren't flying and scoring air to air kills against Russian strikers while Russian strikers are free to do their thing? Seems to me like Russia has air superiority right now.

Because the VKS is not as effective as US in doing the same job, so for now, there is no need for the Ukrainian Air Force to go after the VKS. Attacking Russian ground forces is more important.

 

[Meengla]

Col. Macgregor will be 'cancelled' as soon as he gains some traction in media!! The modus operandi even in the 'free' countries is to tolerate as long as one doesn't become too much of a threat to the dominant discourse. There are hundreds of billions of $$ at stake every year because of foreign or domestic policies and if people could kill for a $50 bill then they would certainly kill for a $50 billion bill...

 

[thetutle]

Possible, dude. Possible.

Average income includes pensioners, students and welfare earners.

Russian average wage is 60k rubles.
Moscow average wage is 140k rubles.
PPP to nominal ratio for Russia is currently 4.
That means average Moscow citizen earns $6k per month equivalent for US wage with free healthcare.

Thats on the level of Bosnia, one of the poorest countries in europe with no strategic industry or any particularly high tech. A country people are leaving en masse due to the poor wages and living conditions. And your real sanctions have just started.

Actually what is unprecedented here is the seizure of personal assets by the western countries. Just think about what kind of message this sends to rich Chinese, Arabs, Pakistanis, Africans about what would happen if your country runs foul of the west and their messianic ideology?

If they had any brain, which they dont, they would not keep their money in the west.

But, what are their options? investing in their own failed countries? nope, they wont do that. Invest in an African bank? In African derivatives? African Bonds? Indian socks? with he level of Indian corporate governance and a country on the verge of civil war and genocide? lol. Keep your money under the pillow? They have no choice.

 

[FuturePAF]

Sure it will impact China but it will be a choice that the west makes, not China. Who started the trade war? Who started vilifying who? Who started a propaganda war? Who is funding hostile interests in Hong Kong and taiwan? Who created Covid to politically vilify who? Who is accusing whom of genocide?

It is very clear that the aggression and hostility is coming from one direction. And the reason why is clear as well. China is becoming much too powerful to contain or control. The west cannot handle having peers who are equals. China could easily coexist with the west as equals and live in mutual respect. The west can’t do the same this is why the media here has to constantly demonize China and dehumanize Chinese people.

So if the day comes that full decoupling is inevitable, China will no longer have any investment in being cooperative with the west and this will be a huge uncontrollable variable because China is now the worlds most powerful industrial superpower.

Classic Thucydides Trap. Pain on both sides, and for the world, but at least the decoupling is better then a war.