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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

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They are having real logistic problems, they were not expecting a serious resistance and soldiers were not prepared for this large scale war. (Although they were transfered to the locations closed to the border months ago and drills were going on…) been decades since Russia had huge exercises Also the mobilisation and maneuvre capacity of the army seems to be lower than thought.

I don't think you realise what this may entail.

Even if they will be fumbling profusely, and trade 2:1 with Ukrainians, Putin's plan to "have more soldiers than the enemy has bullets" has its cold logic merits.

Even if extremely logistics starved, they still can throw infantry on civilian vehicles at least, or try carrying 20 men per APC.

There is no question now that Kremlin realises that the war is extremely costly for it, but now it commits to making it so for the defending side.

It's a straight Russian mid WW2 move

Also, you don't need talented officers for that, which is we know also a part of Putin's calculus, who don't want his generals becoming too powerful.
 
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You guys duped by laughable Western propaganda are so funny.

So far whole Ukrainian airforce (250+ aircrafts) and Air Defense (200+ S-300 and Buk systems) are completly wiped out.

100k strong Ukrainian army in Eastern Ukraine with 2k armored vehicles and 1k artillery is decimated. 80% of heavy weapon is destroyed and 50% of troops killed or wounded. The rest 50k troops will be encircled and liquidated in next 3 weeks.

The first collapse will happen in 2-3 days with the loss of Mariupol defended by 15k Ukrainian troops and Azov Nazis.

Then 30k troops near Donetsk will be encircled and liquidated.

Then 1,5mil Kharkov will be completly encircled and Russian army will take control of whole Eastern Ukraine up to Dnepr river.

At the same time Russian units on south will make the link to Transnistria and completly cut Ukrainian access to sea.

While Kiev (25% of Ukrainian GDP) defended by 100k Ukrainian troops is already economically destroyed, it will remain blocked and encircled.

After that all the goals of the operation will be reached.

Independent analysis of video footage and photographs suggests Russia has lost more than 200 tanks, almost 500 armoured vehicles, 70 air-defence systems, 13 helicopters and 32 fighter jets. But given that not all incapacitated vehicles have been visually documented, the actual count will be much higher. Even as things stand, the number of tanks lost is already the highest in any military action since World War II. And the scope for reinforcing the troops currently on the ground in Ukraine is diminishing by the day. With 75 per cent of its Battalion Tactical Groups the Russian army's basic fighting unit already deployed,
 
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There is a trojan horse in the social media team of the Kadyrov crew. They presenting content with a nasheed that has become an anti-SAA anthem.
In addition, the actions of the soldiers in the propaganda video are thought-provoking about the quality of training.
 
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I don't think you realise what this may entail.

Even if they will be fumbling profusely, and trade 2:1 with Ukrainians, Putin's plan to "have more soldiers than the enemy has bullets" has its cold logic merits.

Even if extremely logistics starved, they still can throw infantry on civilian vehicles at least, or try carrying 20 men per APC.

There is no question now that Kremlin realises that the war is extremely costly for it, but now it commits to making it so for the defending side.

It's a straight Russian mid WW2 move

The big one on that list is man power. I think the Russians looking to recruit Syrian Chechnya mercenaries is a bigger indication of weakness others might disagree there attack is faltering
 
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Independent analysis of video footage and photographs suggests Russia has lost more than 200 tanks, almost 500 armoured vehicles, 70 air-defence systems, 13 helicopters and 32 fighter jets. But given that not all incapacitated vehicles have been visually documented, the actual count will be much higher. Even as things stand, the number of tanks lost is already the highest in any military action since World War II. And the scope for reinforcing the troops currently on the ground in Ukraine is diminishing by the day. With 75 per cent of its Battalion Tactical Groups the Russian army's basic fighting unit already deployed,

Do we actually have a citation to work with?

Independent analysis from mostly pro-Ukraine groups. Well ignoring that, even assuming not, analysis are efforts from internet users who may be double counting, triple counting vehicles. How do we avoid that even unintentional re-counting of vehicles. I don't think I've seen one single effort at truly trying to compile the real losses with any honesty or accuracy.

What we have seen is a mess and disorganised effort of documenting and in that, a lot of reposting, re-counting, using video game footage, tall tales assumed totally true, footage and pictures used from other events, and so on. Russia however has lost lots of vehicles for sure. But we don't know how many. There is total fog of war, it could be 200 tanks, 2000 tanks or 50 tanks. Although I have to say 200 tanks lost wouldn't be totally surprising. Ukraine is like twice Vietnam and nearly as well armed as Russia on the lower tier conventional level (so not counting strategic bombers and things like SSNs or ballistic missiles). It is a nation of 40 million people and a huge military relative to most countries. It would be nearly as hard as US invasion and war on Vietnam. US did have nearby Thailand offer space for bases but US power projection of course is far beyond Russia or any other country from its carriers and regional bases.
 
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Ukraine is now officially Syria 2.0

Dji drones in Ukraine war
FONsoUKXwAsYBJP
 
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The big one on that list is man power. I think the Russians looking to recruit Syrian Chechnya mercenaries is a bigger indication of weakness others might disagree there attack is faltering

Well, I see Syria scenario more, and more.

Just like that, Russian land operations were very weak, but in the end, after years of fighting, heavy artillery, hammering of deserters, and airforce made its deed.

This is definitely his plan now. He knows it will eventually work if he can keep the West sit tightly.
 
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You don't think Putin's Generals predicted that NATO and US sending so many pieces of weaponry would result in insurgents and Zelensky's desperation would see him go so far as to even release prisoners and give weapons to civilians?

I think Putin's Generals would have realized that if Russia wanted to occupy and control Ukraine it would be all in and against Ukraine all in with total support of West.

If indeed his Generals didn't anticipate that, they are not worthy of their titles. However, I think this is all in your thoughts. There isn't really any solid evidence that Putin predicted and his Generals predicted Ukraine would fall after only a few days. Surely they would have expected insurgent fighting to last years even. I mean they can look at US experience in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan for a start to realize occupying Ukraine would be costly and take a long time. Putin must have some sort of plan and he probably wanted the favorable outcome to be gained in his pushing Zelensky towards negotiations.
Then you have to explain the Poutine purge of his generals. Not only that, what were some Russian generals doing on the frontlines and got killed? Am not army but USAF, but even so, it is tough for me to buy into the defense that Russian generals leads from the front. Now the other argument is that they were at the front to find out why is the Army stalled and possibly to salvage low morale, and then some are KIA-ed. Both the purge and the frontline deaths do not correlate with what you posited. Of the generals Poutine fired, what are the odds that it contained THE army commander and THE air force commander, and not just their lieutenants? Also, the FSB chief is under house arrest. FSB is internal intelligence and security. GRU is external intelligence with focus on military related subjects. What if the GRU chief was in that purge? This would be like Nimitz, Eisenhower, Patton, Clark, Marshall, and MacArthur fired at the same time.
 
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Then you have to explain the Poutine purge of his generals. Not only that, what were some Russian generals doing on the frontlines and got killed? Am not army but USAF, but even so, it is tough for me to buy into the defense that Russian generals leads from the front. Now the other argument is that they were at the front to find out why is the Army stalled and possibly to salvage low morale, and then some are KIA-ed. Both the purge and the frontline deaths do not correlate with what you posited. Of the generals Poutine fired, what are the odds that it contained THE army commander and THE air force commander, and not just their lieutenants? Also, the FSB chief is under house arrest. FSB is internal intelligence and security. GRU is external intelligence with focus on military related subjects. What if the GRU chief was in that purge? This would be like Nimitz, Eisenhower, Patton, Clark, Marshall, and MacArthur fired at the same time.

Have these been verified? That the Russians lost these Generals on the frontline and FSB chief in under house arrest.

If all true, then indeed concerning and indicative of what you are suggesting.
 
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There isn't really any solid evidence that Putin predicted and his Generals predicted Ukraine would fall after only a few days
Correct. I have not seen such evidence either. In fact, I remember in days leading to the invasion as report in NY Times that had American experts predicting a quick liquidation of the Ukrainian military machine. If Putin was wrong then so were others. Anyway, Ukraine is not so outgunned and outnumbered as made out to be especially considering the Western help and considering Ukraine fighting on their home turf, and fighting for their lives and land.

There is no question now that Kremlin realises that the war is extremely costly for it, but now it commits to making it so for the defending side.

It's a straight Russian mid WW2 move

Yes, this like the Russian WW2 move---where taking casualties is not such a huge consideration as long as overall objectives are met. And I believe Russia will likely accomplish enough to strike a hard bargain.
 
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Have these been verified? That the Russians lost these Generals on the frontline and FSB chief in under house arrest.

If all true, then indeed concerning and indicative of what you are suggesting.

The Fifth Service of the FSB, Russia’s main intelligence service, has been targeted and the leadership placed under house arrest, according to the authors’ sources.​
Its head, Colonel-General Sergei Beseda, and his deputy were being held after allegations of misusing operational funds earmarked for subversive activities and for providing poor intelligence ahead of Russia’s now-stuttering invasion. The operation has hit serious obstacles, not least fierce resistance by the Ukrainian armed forces and the unity of the population, including most Russian-speakers, behind President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his government.​
This is the best info we have at this time.
 
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If indeed his Generals didn't anticipate that, they are not worthy of their titles. However, I think this is all in your thoughts. There isn't really any solid evidence that Putin predicted and his Generals predicted Ukraine would fall after only a few days. Surely they would have expected insurgent fighting to last years even. I mean they can look at US experience in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan for a start to realize occupying Ukraine would be costly and take a long time. Putin must have some sort of plan and he probably wanted the favorable outcome to be gained in his pushing Zelensky towards negotiations.
Well, if Putin original intention is to force a regime change, then he would have to aim at capitulate Ukraine as soon as possible, the longer it got drag on, the more time he is giving the Ukrainian to organise a defence. And you also want to do it with minimal civilian lost. So the take over will not be opposed.

The Russia battleplan echo this fact, first we see the amount of troop Russia use, it pointed at a surgical assault, not a general assault, a quick in and out action with minimal occupation force (You usually need 2 to 3 times the invading force to occupy a city) Also the diversion of 3 avenue of attack which amplified the supply and logistic requirement as they are all 100 of km apart, which mean they want to take multiple city simultaneously which also point to quick capitulation. And finally the way the initial assault carry the troop and the forward deployment of troop also point to the fact the battle plan is for a quick victories.

I am pretty sure if Putin plan originally was to face an insurgency, he would have used more than 200,000 troop for this. He would probably bring along around 5-600000 troop with the majority of those National Guard troop trained with Riot control, This was not the case tho.

Another issue is Russia intelligence and counter intelligence operation. For starter, the fact that US and UK broadcasted Russian battleplan before Russian launch their attack is a good indication that Russia have a counter intelligence problem, and the fact that they follow thru the invasion with the original plan that US and UK announced before hand would suggest an intelligence handling problem , set aside whether or not Putin expect Ukrainian would welcome them with open arms is another issue, but the first two already exposed the Russian intelligence problem without the need to go to underestimate the Ukrainian willingness to fight.

And finally, you cannot force a deal if you do not own any city, you simply cannot trade road or bus junction for a more favourable deal on the negotiation table. Say for example, if Peace talk is going on tomorrow, there are virtually no bargaining chip for Russia to demand anything from the Ukrainian, at this point in time, they hold 2 medium to small size city (Kherson and Melitopol and Kherson is actually under counter attack for now) You can't really go on for a bigger piece of the pies if they were to negotiate. I don't even know if it will change the calculus if they took Mariupol because that city is now in ruined, it does not worth anything.

So with all of this put together, one can assume what the Russian expect is not what we saw here on day 24. If you compare this to US invasion in Iraq, by Day 24, the US had already took Baghdad, and Russia still have not start the fight or even bombard Kyiv yet. What you are looking is street to street fighting 3 or 4 times the scale of what we are seeing in Mariupol and Kharkiv, where both city still remain in Ukrainian hand. You are talking about 5 to 6 times the current casualty number ahead.
 
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Independent analysis of video footage and photographs suggests Russia has lost more than 200 tanks, almost 500 armoured vehicles, 70 air-defence systems, 13 helicopters and 32 fighter jets. But given that not all incapacitated vehicles have been visually documented, the actual count will be much higher. Even as things stand, the number of tanks lost is already the highest in any military action since World War II. And the scope for reinforcing the troops currently on the ground in Ukraine is diminishing by the day. With 75 per cent of its Battalion Tactical Groups the Russian army's basic fighting unit already deployed,

Theres no such analysis. What you said is nonsense actually. All available video and photos can only prove the loss of 3-5 Russian fighter jets and about same number of Russian air defense systems. As well as few dozens of armored vehicles. BTW Ukies love to show their own destroyed tanks and other vehicles as Russian ones.
 
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You guys duped by laughable Western propaganda are so funny.

So far whole Ukrainian airforce (250+ aircrafts) and Air Defense (200+ S-300 and Buk systems) are completly wiped out.

100k strong Ukrainian army in Eastern Ukraine with 2k armored vehicles and 1k artillery is decimated. 80% of heavy weapon is destroyed and 50% of troops killed or wounded. The rest 50k troops will be encircled and liquidated in next 3 weeks.

The first collapse will happen in 2-3 days with the loss of Mariupol defended by 15k Ukrainian troops and Azov Nazis.

Then 30k troops near Donetsk will be encircled and liquidated.

Then 1,5mil Kharkov will be completly encircled and Russian army will take control of whole Eastern Ukraine up to Dnepr river.

At the same time Russian units on south will make the link to Transnistria and completly cut Ukrainian access to sea.

While Kiev (25% of Ukrainian GDP) defended by 100k Ukrainian troops is already economically destroyed, it will remain blocked and encircled.

After that all the goals of the operation will be reached.

So is that what mainstream Russian medias are feeding you with ? :lol:
 
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