Battlion25
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First of all, no offence, but most of your point is either BS or conspiracy. You effectively put the frame on what Ukraine and what Zelenskyy does while discounting Russian and Belarus own cause and effect.
Particularly the point of Ukraine being a "Logical" threat for Russia between 2025-2030 timeframe is quite ridiculous. Almost all military analysis agree Ukraine would have to reach at least a trillion dollar level economy with heavy fortified industry base before it can present any sort of a threat toward Russia. The industry base is not there, and still have not relocated from East. There are no plan for domestically made Fighter Jet or Ship at least until 2035 and which is why the state of UAF and Ukrainian Navy is in such a depilated state.
The only way Ukraine can see an drastic increase in defence is either go with Russia or West camp, and seeing how Europe and US unwilling to supply any sort of meaningful offensive weapon, again, all weapon trade between US/EU and Ukraine were defensive, they are almost all Anit-Air and Anti-Armor weaponry, Ukraine is not going to be any creditable threat as Russia made out to be in 2030. They will now with full US and EU backing.
On the other hand, Russia seriously miscalculated and played their hand. As I pointed out before, US and UK jointed Intelligence Service had long intercepted Russian plan to invade Ukraine. To a point that BBC release a purposed map for Invasion which aligned to much of what we actually see happening. Which suggest this invasion is though out long before (at least 2 years +) because you don't just make plan on the go, there is a period of planning and wargaming to redefined the plan. If I have to guess, it's was either already there after 2014, or it was made after Trump got shown the door in 2020, if I have to lean, I would have pick the former because if it was the latter, Putin would probably wait until 2024 to invade, because he know if Trump win, that is a sure thing. And with him invading, Trump is not going to win another election as you can probably already see how their own Republican turn on him for supporting Putin. So if I have to guess, I would have said the plan was made after 2014 annexation of Crimea. Putin is just waiting on a good time to go.
As for whether or not Russia will win. That really depend on the next 3 days, because, they have lost a big chunk of their force already by putting their troop into position. And the tough thing has not even started, If you lost approximately 10% of your combat strength getting there and what you are looking forward is a Urban Street to Street Style combat. Your perspective is not going to be good.
Mind you, US intelligence report suggested most of the Russian unit are combat ineffective as of now (The definition is if a unit have more than 20% casualty, it's combat ineffective) , either too much wounded and too many supply trouble to continue, that is the majority of reason why there virtually no progress since Day 14, which is 10 days ago, that is why they resort to bombing civilian, because there are not enough ready troop to go in and engage. Which mean unless some renewal logistical and supply solution comes with a new batch of troop, I can see the frontline will hardly move for the next 6 months as Spring come in and muddy the ground, which amplified further logistic problem.
Not saying Russia cannot pull it off, but I am saying it will take a lot longer to untangle this mess and continue the advance. You need to know Russia has still to fight Kyiv, Odessa and Dnipro and being hindered at Kharkiv or even Mariupol. both of which have less population and smaller than the 3 city they have not touch, which mean it would be months, for Russian to clear all those city, and that is if they can clear them out. And then on top of that, you are only talking about Eastern Part of Ukraine. Russia have no even move troop West. And you will also need to conquer town like Lviv and Lutsk in order to prevent an insurgency.
By then Finland would be in NATO by then, and that is assume Russia still have enough strength to go over there.
I stopped reading at the part where Ukraine has to be economically strong in order to become a threat? Are you even being serious bro..
Look at Brazil it has huge economy but not even nearly or half as armed as countries far smaller like Morocco, Poland or Algeria etc etc.. Economy is no indictor for armament.. It comes down to ambitions as some countries are more militarily ambitious then others