Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[Apollon]

You are also wrong. China's gold reserves are several times that of the United States.

No they are not.

ten countries with the largest gold reserves in the world are:

• United States. - 8,134 tons.
• Germany - 3,364 tons.
• Italy - 2,453 tons.
• France - 2,436 tons.
• Russia - 2,299 tons.
• China - 1,948 tons.
• Switzerland - 1,040 tons.
• Japan - 765 tons.

@RescueRanger

Russian attack on Ukraine a total military planing disaster. They thought they will capture few cities and then go straight to capital but they failed to understand how they will secure supply lines? same mistake Gen Musharaf did he totally ignore about logistics.
If Ukraine got contentiously support and arms from outside I fear Russian forces will trap inside Ukraine and would die but before that Putin would force to use nukes.

A big debacle by Russian military planners.
@PanzerKiel
Your thoughts Sir.

The thing is, that russia never cared for their soldiers. So he propably will push more and more into this chaos.

 

[MH.Yang]

No they are not.

ten countries with the largest gold reserves in the world are:

• United States. - 8,134 tons.
• Germany - 3,364 tons.
• Italy - 2,453 tons.
• France - 2,436 tons.
• Russia - 2,299 tons.
• China - 1,948 tons.
• Switzerland - 1,040 tons.
• Japan - 765 tons.

You should google the news about China's gold reserves again. Any financial institution in the world has determined that China's gold reserves exceed 30000 tons. Maybe only you believe the figure of 1948 tons.


Let me remind you that China has the highest gold production in the world. And China buys a lot of gold every year and never sells gold. The figure of 1948 t was released by China in 1984. 38 years later, this figure has never changed.

 

[jhungary]

There is a bank in China called BKCL, which has been responsible for trade settlement between China and Iran, Venezuela and other countries since 2007.
Of course, USA has repeatedly sanctioned BKCL, but it is useless. Because this bank has no business in western countries. The bank's shareholders are three state-owned enterprises: PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC. But it is strange that USA has never sanctioned these three state-owned enterprises.
Therefore, we know very well how Russia will trade with China.

昆仑银行 - 维基百科，自由的百科全书

zh.m.wikipedia.org

Again, answer me these two question.

1.) Where do you get your money from?
2.) Where do the Russian get their money from?

US never sanction any other bank does not have any bearing in this, because Central Bank of China is the one that initiate monetary policy in China. As long as Central Bank of China was not sanctioned, you can raise whatever fund you want.

But bear in mind that you are no talking about a few billions dollars, or a few hundred billions dollars. You are talking about loaning trillions of dollars worth of your currency to a known default risk. Which mean either the Russia will pay you back with Rouble (which worth nothing) or they will not pay you back at all, at least until the sanction lifted. That mean the only way you can recover those money is to write it off and print new one. Again, A trillions dollars worth or more?

On the other hand, how do you think Russia is going to pay you back? They cannot guarantee their money, which mean there are no way you can set a price with them (Because that would depends on a currency swap deal and again, would you swap Rouble with RMB now? That's the question) unless you are talking about goods to goods trade, then you need to ask yourself this. What good would it do to Huawei, Oppo, SAIC or Chinese bank get oil or gas in return of their goods and service?? Can they spend those oil?

 

[Xerxes22]

Indeed.

USA military budget = 770 billion USD per year*

Russian military budget = 180 billion USD per year (PPP metric)**

*Over 50 billion USD is diverted for Black Projects.

Americans are relatively better funded and equipped for black experiments and creating new technologies by extension.

They will disclose and apply game-changing technologies when up against a well-equipped force. They did this in 1991 (vs. Iraq) and 1999 (vs. Yugoslavia) respectively - won both wars.

- - -

**Details in following source:

Why Russian Military Expenditure Is Much Higher Than Commonly Understood (As Is China’s) - War on the Rocks

Gresham’s Law states that bad money drives out good money, but anyone who has spent time around Washington, D.C., knows that this law can safely be

warontherocks.com

Americans have surprises in store for others even in case of a nuclear war. These include unspecified advances in the EMSO regime. They are developing different technologies to fight a nuclear war if necessary. This matter is no longer limited to use of ICBMs. Many are sold to Cold War era notions in this regard.

For perspective, they complain about Russian (and Chinese) ASAT options but they do not tell much about their own and how they can defend their assets in space:

What Satellite Attack Weapon Might The US Reveal Soon? - Breaking Defense

Space based jammers? Kinetic kill vehicles? Ground based lasers? The Pentagon has a space weapon it's ready to show, but it's not clear exactly what it will be.

breakingdefense.com

You might consider military buildup (for a military operation in a neighboring country) deep inside your territory but you will have to move these forces to the relevant border at some point and it will draw attention at this stage if not earlier. This strategy will add to your costs as well - lot of fuel will be consumed in the process.

Military buildup near the border is cost-effective approach on the other hand. Much of the fuel is preserved for military operations inside another country in this manner.

Russian force composition in Ukraine is already substantial: 200,000 Russian regular troops are involved along with an undisclosed count of irregular forces such as the Wagner Group and Chechens. These forces breached Ukraine from 6 different directions including through Belarus. Russians have also used hundreds of cruise missiles and ballistic missiles to strike at high value targets inside Ukraine to minimize losses to its Air Force. Russian military operation in Ukraine is well-executed in theory.

Ukranian resistance efforts are commendable on the other hand. Putin assumed that Zelenskky administration is a puppet regime and will fall apart when Russian forces will enter Ukraine and approach Kyiv. He was proven wrong. Not only Zelenskyy decided to stay in Kyiv, he motivated Ukranians to fight and many answered his call. Putin needs to get rid of his current crop of advisors if anything.

Ukranians were relatively underprepared for the war in fact. Ukranian leaders were taking Russians lightly. Misreading of this situation costed Ukraine much since 2014. Zelenskyy administration was also taking Russian military buildup in Belarus and around Ukraine lightly. Zelenskyy probably realizes this error and decided not to abandon his country when Russian forces approached Kyiv.

I have seen some members making fun of Zelenskyy for being a comedian but this man has more spine in him than supposedly well-groomed leaders of numerous countries around the world. Credit where due.

You cannot stop supplies from one country to another unless you are willing to conduct a military operation to this effect. This is time-consuming initiative and will add to your costs as well.

Few countries have sufficient resources to subject another country to military occupation and/or fight increasingly hybrid methods of warfare in another.

Well basically we are saying the same thing. Russia did miscalculate the situation alot. Obviously in both strategic in tactical levels.

On a strategic level they misunderstood the stand that the Kiev leaders and the resistance people would put up against the invasion. On a tactical level, yes I understand it is cost effective to build up forces near the border as they did but even so they kept waiting and waiting after full mobilisation. All the while Ukraine was getting armed. And the American and EU war machine and intelligence was gearing up to support the Ukrainians with military intelligence when the time came.

The west was setting up their infrastructure already to assist Ukraine in a coordinated manner. So that's why I thought instead of just sitting them down like ducks they cudve attacked after the mobilisation was complete.

Also no one cud ever imagine, that Russia wud suffer so much losses. They tried many times to land VVD behind enemy lines without any support and they got wiped out completely on several occasions. Now these are their elite fighters.

However I know, if this was not a former Soviet Slavic country.... Russia wudve just levelled cities like Mariupol, Kiev, Kharkov like Grozny. Their MRLS are very deadly. But they chose rather to get bogged down and encircle the cities and not use as much shelling in order to protect civilians. Which I think is the humane thing to do. And kudos to them for that.

 

[coffee_cup]

2. Germany

A lot of this is held by Fed Reserve and last time Germany wanted to inspect her gold, they flatly rejected their request. So I am not sure, Germany will ever be able to see her gold held in the US, :-(

 

[RescueRanger]

@RescueRanger

Russian attack on Ukraine a total military planing disaster. They thought they will capture few cities and then go straight to capital but they failed to understand how they will secure supply lines? same mistake Gen Musharaf did he totally ignore about logistics.
If Ukraine got contentiously support and arms from outside I fear Russian forces will trap inside Ukraine and would die but before that Putin would force to use nukes.

A big debacle by Russian military planners.
@PanzerKiel
Your thoughts Sir.

I too want to hear what @PanzerKiel has to say, sir your input would be valuable to this thread.

 

[jhungary]

Very interesting. So what do you think will happen to the Russian economy in 30 days time? what will happen in 1 years time? what is your prediction?

In short term? Nothing. There are still foreign reserve within Russia that Russian can use, and until that has depleted, nothing will change. But once that has been depleted, then depends on how much China help out, it range from business as usual to everything close down and Russia went back to coupon system for just about everything.

I don't know how long Russia can hang on to those foreign money and I don't know when will the West lift the sanction, so I cannot tell you what will happen in a year or so.

 

[MH.Yang]

Again, answer me these two question.

1.) Where do you get your money from?
2.) Where do the Russian get their money from?

US never sanction any other bank does not have any bearing in this, because Central Bank of China is the one that initiate monetary policy in China. As long as Central Bank of China was not sanctioned, you can raise whatever fund you want.

But bear in mind that you are no talking about a few billions dollars, or a few hundred billions dollars. You are talking about loaning trillions of dollars worth of your currency to a known default risk. Which mean either the Russia will pay you back with Rouble (which worth nothing) or they will not pay you back at all, at least until the sanction lifted. That mean the only way you can recover those money is to write it off and print new one. Again, A trillions dollars worth or more?

On the other hand, how do you think Russia is going to pay you back? They cannot guarantee their money, which mean there are no way you can set a price with them (Because that would depends on a currency swap deal and again, would you swap Rouble with RMB now? That's the question) unless you are talking about goods to goods trade, then you need to ask yourself this. What good would it do to Huawei, Oppo, SAIC or Chinese bank get oil or gas in return of their goods and service?? Can they spend those oil?

Again, answer me these two question.

1.) Where do you get your money from?
2.) Where do the Russian get their money from?

US never sanction any other bank does not have any bearing in this, because Central Bank of China is the one that initiate monetary policy in China. As long as Central Bank of China was not sanctioned, you can raise whatever fund you want.

But bear in mind that you are no talking about a few billions dollars, or a few hundred billions dollars. You are talking about loaning trillions of dollars worth of your currency to a known default risk. Which mean either the Russia will pay you back with Rouble (which worth nothing) or they will not pay you back at all, at least until the sanction lifted. That mean the only way you can recover those money is to write it off and print new one. Again, A trillions dollars worth or more?

On the other hand, how do you think Russia is going to pay you back? They cannot guarantee their money, which mean there are no way you can set a price with them (Because that would depends on a currency swap deal and again, would you swap Rouble with RMB now? That's the question) unless you are talking about goods to goods trade, then you need to ask yourself this. What good would it do to Huawei, Oppo, SAIC or Chinese bank get oil or gas in return of their goods and service?? Can they spend those oil?

China purchases oil, natural gas and other resources from Russia through CNY used by BKCL. Russia uses CNY to buy the goods they need from China. What's the problem? Of course, China will not agree to use rubles for settlement. Russia has agreed to use CNY for settlement.

Russia can also exchange some physical dollars and euros through offshore CNY. This is not difficult to operate.

 

[jhungary]

Yes indeed and as the US markets are indicating govenments globally have taken notice and are moving their national reserves from the dollar. Alternatives will be found. The world knows now the real power is the economic power. Even more so than military. Just watch this space

I honestly don't think so.

A replacement for Dollar denominated system would mean whatever currency that is going to replace the USD would have to have MORE circulation than USD, and that is before US call in EU for help, then you are not looking at 61% reserve, but closer to 90% world reserve. Can a single currency do that without bankrupting their own economy?

Look at it this way, RMB is currently at 1.2% world reserve basket, they will need to expand at least 60 times to overrun USD (which is at 61.2%) that expanding may have been possible in the next 100 years if RMB have a complete currency reform (nobody are going to willing to trade a currency that is controlled by the government) I do not see China can do that without seriously deflate their own currency.

Either that or a third world war happened and nobody but China survive. Which is how US get to dominate world currency back after WW2.

 

[dBSPL]

You should google the news about China's gold reserves again. Any financial institution in the world has determined that China's gold reserves exceed 30000 tons. Maybe only you believe the figure of 1948 tons.


Let me remind you that China has the highest gold production in the world. And China buys a lot of gold every year and never sells gold. The figure of 1948 t was released by China in 1984. 38 years later, this figure has never changed.

Is there an official report confirming this 30,000 tons claim? Central banks' trading operations should be transparent in terms of market reliability and auditability. So there should be official reports on how much gold China's CB buys annually. Don't get me wrong, I do not intend to enter into the discussion between you, only the monetary policies of the countries are of my interest.

 

[jhungary]

China purchases oil, natural gas and other resources from Russia through CNY used by BKCL. Russia uses CNY to buy the goods they need from China. What's the problem? Of course, China will not agree to use rubles for settlement. Russia has agreed to use CNY for settlement.

Russia can also exchange some physical dollars and euros through offshore CNY. This is not difficult to operate.

Where does the "Russia uses CNY" come from??

And no, they cannot exchange dollars and Euro thru offshore CNY........Set aside legality for a minutes, I mean how do you suppose they do that when all their asset outside Russia and China is frozen?? Who guarantee that "exchange"? And then the entire legality come into question. you do that and you will probably will pay a big fine, remember how US get Canada to arrest Huawei Director's daughter for "circumventing Iranian sanction?"

 

[SIPRA]

I too want to hear what @PanzerKiel has to say, sir your input would be valuable to this thread.

@PanzerKiel Sahib hum sub ko kissi Ghotki jannay waalay truck ki batti kay peechhay laga dain gay.

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

The US had nothing to do with it?

Orwellian logic.

Russians and Americans cut a deal.
The Cubans had no say there.

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1504408059648655367

A winning side would never put land-mines in their territory. This is proof that the Ukrainians know that it is just a matter of time before the Russians seize Odessa.

 

[MH.Yang]

Is there an official report confirming this 30,000 tons claim? Central banks' trading operations should be transparent in terms of market reliability and auditability. So there should be official reports on how much gold China's CB buys annually. Don't get me wrong, I do not intend to enter into the discussion between you, only the monetary policies of the countries are of my interest.

No, the official figure of the Chinese government is always 1948 t. But you can search any institution for analysis of China's gold reserves. The United States, Europe, India and so on. They will tell you how to calculate and estimate China's gold reserves.