Look, in Russia's favor will mean they keep the 4 areas they annaxed in return for some guarantee.
None of the 4 provinces claimed as russian are in their control.
even after the rollover of 2014, ukraine did not cede crimea and donbass officialy.
At most i see some sort of Minsk 3.
In reality a frozen conflict based on frontlines as they are on the ground.
Perhaps some land swapping based on guarantees given by either side.
Ukraine defined victory as getting back all their land. This is not possible unless you destroy Russia,
This is very well possible.
What is russia going to do? Nuclear armageddon? They did not do that after the soviet collapse.
Though part of the claim is probably ukraine having a trade “card”.
and please be logical, you think you can destroy Russia without Armageddon? It is really simple logics, sure Putin can get assasinated, but you think the next guy is gonna cave in? After such big sacrifice, estimated 100k deaths to Ukraine's 400k to 500k deaths, no sane Russian will cave in. It is their national character.
russia lost about 25% of the size it had during russian empire. 20% after soviet union.
If putin is ousted and a civil strife starts. It will have its hands full on holding on to russia proper. Let alone contest Crimea.
Russian economy is still humming along with growth,
Based on russian figures…..which were great for soviet union as well…until…
Debt is rising and car sales plummeted.
the war machine is still producing
It is losing 10 times its production capacity.
Even soviet stocks have an end to it.
Do you know what is more dangerous to US than China? A unified Europe with Russia in it using Euros, with immense resource and industrial might and unrivalled technology. I am Chinese so Russians on our side is a good thing. We get resources to power our industries. Look at Germany now, industries getting fcked upside down. Syrian war, who started it? It destabilised Europe with millions of Muslims. Who gains? USA MATEY
I agree with this and was always a proponent of russian integration.
That would have created a third power well matching the USA/China axes.
Russia is having at most a massive pyrrhic victory while europe is getting a massive economic hit.
However world is not black and white.
Russia has been acting like a greater imperialist then america.
Europe went heavy on diplomacy and trade for peace…despite american pressure. Putin threw that all away because it wanted to control its former “colony”.
It also chose to heavily sabotage the EU and manipulate/fund extreme right european parties for 15 years already.
Putin cannot get away with that.
Ukraine needs to get a “win” (perhaps with crimea concession), and russia needs to pay reperations. Then we can repair ties.
