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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

It would be v.v.v.v brave and stupid of Belarus to enter this war right now... perfect opportunity for NATO by proxy to get involved and over throw the current regime there...
Well, considered the Belarusian had swapped their armour with Russian troop.

It really would have to be extremely stupid to try to invade Ukraine. Plus, they don't really have enough troop anyway, the latest intel suggest they have around 20,000 in Ukrainian border, Ukraine have 8 Brigades in that border, or 40,000 men.
 
1.) Heat Signature is going to be a problem, because you are talking about temperature in contrast to the sky. Which depends on altitude, it's range between 10-25 degree C, a 2 strokes engine can warm up to at least 50 degree C, that's a very big contrast.
I am aware, I don't know exactly at what temp the engine would be during flight but what is based on empirical evidence, the Manpad team guarding the Ukrenergo building completely missed, and failed to acquire the target. It had several minutes to do it.

We already have the IR signature of the drone seen on camera, and it is very small. This is a still from a Shahed UAS strike on a UKR position which slightly missed and hit the center of the road, but probably was good enough to damage the vehicle.
1666027123148.png

2.) You aren't answering my question. I asked "Did Shahed 136 have counter measure". I.E. Chaff, Flare, Electronic Countermeasure. Not anti-Jamming device.
No, this is too small for these systems to be integrated, maybe in a later larger design or never. It doesn't need flare/chaff which such a low signature it already has. Adding any high end electronics (even if it is available) is not cheap and defeats the purpose of a mass producible cheap system.
3.) This is not about open source, this is about physical attribute, I mean, unless Iran follow some sort of special physics which the Chinese here usually brag about, if you don't have optics onboard, you can't guide the drone passively on target. Which mean either it will become Fire and Forget, or predetermined waypoint, and the only thing you can change the way point for course adjustment is as if you have eyes on your drones from launch to on target. That's what the optical system for. And if you don't have it, you will need a set of physical eyes on target.
I feel like you just want to argue for the sake of arguing, where did I disagree with anything you said here? These are the limitations I also stated.
Which again, defeat the purpose of launching a suicide drone to begin with, I don't know how or why Iran want to use loitering munition, but if I have to have a spotter on ground or in the air, then why I don't just strike that target with that asset? This is not about open source, this is about how drone was used.
What I said about open source has nothing to do with this. The word open source is meant to describe the physical attributes. Not the doctrine behind the usage.

I already explained this. Because trying to use a UCAV to interdict targets in this airspace is a guaranteed loss of the asset. Lets be realistic a UCAV can't survive long in this war if it acts in a combat role
The very reason to use suicide drone is you don't want to risk your asset on high risk A2/AD laden area, so you use loitering munition, did it not defeat the purpose if you require a set of eyes on target to do course correction if you want to hit your target accurately??
This is true, but the asset that acts as the eyes is far from the danger zone and has low risk. Considering how little aviation is used here, expect that TB2 UAVs for example are far back supporting recon.

Anything well beyond the front is pre-programmed. My only question is how well it can navigate and it does seem to have a decent CEP.
 
Well, considered the Belarusian had swapped their armour with Russian troop.

It really would have to be extremely stupid to try to invade Ukraine. Plus, they don't really have enough troop anyway, the latest intel suggest they have around 20,000 in Ukrainian border, Ukraine have 8 Brigades in that border, or 40,000 men.

It's hard to believe how the pilot can't at least avoid the building.

If the pilot is alive, he deserves jail.
Rusky pilots ain't exactly up to NATO standard putting it politely.
 
I am aware, I don't know exactly at what temp the engine would be during flight but what is based on empirical evidence, the Manpad team guarding the Ukrenergo building completely missed, and failed to acquire the target. It had several minutes to do it.

We already have the IR signature of the drone seen on camera, and it is very small. This is a still from a Shahed UAS strike on a UKR position which slightly missed and hit the center of the road, but probably was good enough to damage the vehicle.
View attachment 887354

It still depends on what type of sensor you use to pick up that drone. A lot of IR sensor is very sensitive, especially the heat seeking one, just because it appear to be a small dot on a infrared cam (which no reference to the resolution) it does not mean it cannot be picked up, or at least hard to pick up.

No, this is too small for these systems to be integrated, maybe in a later larger design or never. It doesn't need flare/chaff which such a low signature it already has. Adding any high end electronics (even if it is available) is not cheap and defeats the purpose of a mass producible cheap system.

Hence my point, once you were targeted, you can't run, you can't maneuver, you can't throw decoy, that's almost a guarantee kill

I feel like you just want to argue for the sake of arguing, where did I disagree with anything you said here? These are the limitations I also stated.

I don't think I said you disagree with me, I am just reiterating my position.

What I said about open source has nothing to do with this. The word open source is meant to describe the physical attributes. Not the doctrine behind the usage.

I already explained this. Because trying to use a UCAV to interdict targets in this airspace is a guaranteed loss of the asset. Lets be realistic a UCAV can't survive long in this war if it acts in a combat role

It actually mean both. Open Source can be doctrinal, In fact, everything can be doctrinal because everything on the battlefield have its own say about the battle.

On the other hand, the entire thesis of drone warfare is cost effectiveness. That's why you use a $30,000 drone instead of a multi-million dollars fighter jet for your mission. But that have a limit when it hit the ceiling of its efficiency.

This is true, but the asset that acts as the eyes is far from the danger zone and has low risk. Considering how little aviation is used here, expect that TB2 UAVs for example are far back supporting recon.

Anything well beyond the front is pre-programmed. My only question is how well it can navigate and it does seem to have a decent CEP.
How do you reckon that? In fact, I would argue that asset is going to be more risk than the drone, because if I know you are using this accurately, which mean there are going to be spotting involved, That mean I will do all I can to seek ut and destroy that spotter. And I know you can't be "far" from danger zone because you need first hand intel to guide the drone in.

TB-2 is not at similar to loitering munition, they don't need that much support to guide their munition in, because TB-2 itself is a ISTAR asset. Which mean if you can stop the TB-2, you will stop the strike, which mean the question will become "Can you stop the TB-2"

Bear in mind, any asset you use to guide the loitering munition in is going to cost multiple fold of the loitering munition itself, again, it depends on whether or not you can bring it down. At this moment. the reason why Shahed drone weren't effectively intercepted is because Ukrainian don't have a vast functioning anti-air system like NATO did, that would depends on whether or not NATO would arm Ukraine with respect to their AA system, if that does, than it will negate the impact of those drone cost.
 
Link contains video of the actual hit on the building and burning plane flying across skyline ..



Putin faces Chechen civil war after rebels attack Kadyrov's militia in 'massive' shootout​


 
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It still depends on what type of sensor you use to pick up that drone. A lot of IR sensor is very sensitive, especially the heat seeking one, just because it appear to be a small dot on a infrared cam (which no reference to the resolution) it does not mean it cannot be picked up, or at least hard to pick up.
Fair point. I will concede, that this a low-end sensor that is observing considering its point of origin
Hence my point, once you were targeted, you can't run, you can't maneuver, you can't throw decoy, that's almost a guarantee kill
Which would be fine, these assets are not worth providing high level protection like this. I reckon if Iran makes a micro-turboject engine version, it would be worth adding some countermeasures. But this may be too expensive and defeats the purpose of cheap and mass producible.
I don't think I said you disagree with me, I am just reiterating my position.



It actually mean both. Open Source can be doctrinal, In fact, everything can be doctrinal because everything on the battlefield have its own say about the battle.

On the other hand, the entire thesis of drone warfare is cost effectiveness. That's why you use a $30,000 drone instead of a multi-million dollars fighter jet for your mission. But that have a limit when it hit the ceiling of its efficiency.
We are stuck in a position that the Iranian AF is completely insufficient for basically most things. And it will likely remain that way. Nothing will beat an F-16 in terms of efficiency with 16 small bombs, but with these limitations their is really no choice but to adapt or die.
How do you reckon that? In fact, I would argue that asset is going to be more risk than the drone, because if I know you are using this accurately, which mean there are going to be spotting involved, That mean I will do all I can to seek ut and destroy that spotter. And I know you can't be "far" from danger zone because you need first hand intel to guide the drone in.
I suppose this really comes down to what your opponent is capable of, Is Ukraine currently capable of intercepting the asset deeper inside enemy lines? Maybe MANPADS from Spec Ops forces can locate them? I don't think with Ukrainians current abilities they could do it very easily. Enemy aircraft may be able to engage it from long ranges hypothetically but is Ukraine capable of that right now? etc...

Hence I think the strategy works depending on your opponent, and it is not viable as an overall strategy for all opponents without serious degradation of your opponents air power.

TB-2 is not at similar to loitering munition, they don't need that much support to guide their munition in, because TB-2 itself is a ISTAR asset. Which mean if you can stop the TB-2, you will stop the strike, which mean the question will become "Can you stop the TB-2"
I didn't mean to make the distinction to loitering munition, just using TB2 as an example of a long range recon & combat asset that can monitor the front with low risk.
Bear in mind, any asset you use to guide the loitering munition in is going to cost multiple fold of the loitering munition itself, again, it depends on whether or not you can bring it down. At this moment. the reason why Shahed drone weren't effectively intercepted is because Ukrainian don't have a vast functioning anti-air system like NATO did, that would depends on whether or not NATO would arm Ukraine with respect to their AA system, if that does, than it will negate the impact of those drone cost.
If Russia uses it as a terror weapon (which can also play the role well), then I think NATO will react to it, and send what they need. Seems like a apartment building was hit, either their was navigational issues or deliberate, can't tell.
 
1.) Heat Signature is going to be a problem, because you are talking about temperature in contrast to the sky. Which depends on altitude, it's range between 10-25 degree C, a 2 strokes engine can warm up to at least 50 degree C, that's a very big contrast.

You may be able to mask the heat signature if that is terrain hugging drone, but that would mean you need autonomous guidance system, which mean the moment it shoots up, that engine will get pick up like a hot rock in freezer.


These flying tuk-tuks are easily tracked even against a hot desert in the background.

 
These flying tuk-tuks are easily tracked even against a hot desert in the background.

This is a Qasef-2-K, which is a commercially made UAS made in Yemen with parts from Ali Express. You're a smart guy, not sure why you are comparing two different models together.
 
The US can kick out regime officials and their children who are grazing on the freedom of the US despite the ''death to USA'' slogans by their daddies back home.

This is a surprise, I know Chinese and Russian princelings love living in the US. I didn't think Iranians were similarly inclined.

This is a Qasef-2-K, which is a commercially made UAS made in Yemen with parts from Ali Express. You're a smart guy, not sure why you are comparing two different models together.

does it matter? the engine is the same or similar. If you notice the IR sensor has no problem tracking the hot engine.
 
This is a Qasef-2-K, which is a commercially made UAS made in Yemen with parts from Ali Express. You're a smart guy, not sure why you are comparing two different models together.
The Iranian Shahed-136 used in Ukraine, its engine can be bought in aliexpress too.

A flying crap too, but so cheap that it works.

If you need more money to shoot down a flying crap than in build that crap, you're already lost.
 

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