Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[jhungary]

Joke of the day on Telegram, Part 2.

Sergei Lavrov sternly request Ukraine to unoccupy Kherson as that belong to Russia forever.....

 

[thetutle]

That's what I expect to see in 2-3 yrs too, but....

1. Belarus
2. Blakans

All balkans are NATO except Bosnia, Serbia and Kosovo. And they are surrounded by NATO. So Russia cant do anything there.

 

[Viet]

It is less than 300 meters in some places, but I guess that does not make any difference,

Ok 300m is less than from what I read: the river is between 1km and 2km wide. The most important issue is how to bring heavy tanks and artillery safe over. Lets the Russians spend Christmas in trenches. while Ukraine can bombard them with himars.

 

[thetutle]

Ok 300m is less than from what I read: the river is between 1km and 2km wide. The most important issue is how to bring heavy tanks and artillery safe over. Lets the Russians spend Christmas in trenches. while Ukraine can bombard them with himars.

I dont know if they actually do this just to cause casualties. I would have thought they are used only to achieve a particular tactical manoeuvre and take a specific position. Not for attrition.

 

[dexter]

Security analyst Prof Michael Clarke explains how a Russian retreat does not make Kherson safe from Russia’s guns and missiles.
He says Ukraine will need to find a way to dislodge opposition forces and push them further back from the river otherwise the city will be at risk of continued missile and rocket attacks.

 

[Viet]

I dont know if they actually do this just to cause casualties. I would have thought they are used only to achieve a particular tactical manoeuvre and take a specific position. Not for attrition.

War is primitiv instinct. War is math. Ukraine can never kick the Russians out if they can’t inflict casualties to Russia at unsustainable rate. I know it’s cruel. But if Ukraine can kill more Russians then Putin can replace them then Ukraine wins. Almost all wars between a smaller country against a bigger opponent ends that way.

 

[Paul2]

All balkans are NATO except Bosnia, Serbia and Kosovo. And they are surrounded by NATO. So Russia cant do anything there.

Two Suspected Russian Agents Among 14 Convicted in Montenegro Coup Plot (Published 2019)

The Russian suspects, believed to be back in Russia, were tried and sentenced in absentia in a plot to prevent Montenegro from joining NATO.

www.nytimes.com

It's not that they will drop their troops there. It's most Balkan states being fragile, and easy to subvert.

If Montenegra coup have succeeded, they might have ended up with a Russian military base there. Weak NATO members are covered by Art. 5, but internal subversion is still something Russians may try at them.

 

[kingQamaR]

It just shows how the Russian forward lines were in complete disarray and uncontrolled panic *queue benny hill theme*. Any combat Engineer or ATO worth their salt could have daisy chained ammunition for a big kaboom. This shows one of two things:

1. Most of the soldiers fighting on the front lines are B teamers or rank amateurs.
2. Russians withdrew so fast there was no chance for an orderly withdrawal due to the speed and ferocity with which the Ukrainians advanced.

My guess is that for many of the Russians fighting in Ukraine, especially the conscripts, they have much less motivation to fight over land which has little importance to them, whereas Ukraine troops are fighting for their homeland. Add to that the problems with supplying good quality food & equipment to Russian troops and the increasingly bad weather, it is no wonder morale is low & effectiveness generally poor amongst the Z army. This war started because of ONE man and his greed for power and land, how many more people on both sides have to die before Russia decides enough?

 

[jhungary]

further advance won’t be easy. Now Russia troop concentration on the East bank however Ukraine army has no amphibious capability. The river is too wide, 1,000m minimum. Maybe 200km foot march via land corridor Saporischa, attacking them from northern flank.

There are a few way Ukraine can cross, but those would come with high price.

If they have to cross for whatever reason, they can use the kakhovka dam as a strong point and cross from there. Or air assault into the rear, that would be extremely risky

The safest and less risky point is they just attack from Orikhiv and move south toward either Mariupol or Melitipol while pressuring the Russian on the other side of the Dnieper. The thing is, you don't want Russia to move majority of those troop eastward, that will surge the ongoing Bakhmut offence, which mean Ukraine would need to offset that by sending freed troop from Kherson and help defend Bakhmut. Ukraine don't want that, they most likely wanted to attack Russian elsewhere riding the high.

 

[kingQamaR]

Security analyst Prof Michael Clarke explains how a Russian retreat does not make Kherson safe from Russia’s guns and missiles.
He says Ukraine will need to find a way to dislodge opposition forces and push them further back from the river otherwise the city will be at risk of continued missile and rocket attacks.

Traps aren't usually militarily decisive when your opponent knows exactly what your are doing. Russian communications are insecure and Ukraine has access to sophisticated intelligence gathering equipment plus its own very capable reconnaissance units. Russia has removed its best troops and heavy equipment but poured in conscripts in the hope of slowing down the Ukrainians. Once the cold weather settles in they will surrender in droves. As for their artillery, it has the fundamental problem that Ukraine now has far more sophisticated equipment with longer range. They have sophisticated counter battery radar and much faster shoot and scoot times. On top of that, if rumours that Russia is having to buy ammo from N Korea are true, then it indicates they have an ammo shortage. The situation is even worse in the air, with Ukrainian held territory able to deny access to Russian aircraft and drones but Russian air-defences being inadequate and degraded day by day.

 

[jhungary]

It just shows how the Russian forward lines were in complete disarray and uncontrolled panic *queue benny hill theme*. Any combat Engineer or ATO worth their salt could have daisy chained ammunition for a big kaboom. This shows one of two things:

1. Most of the soldiers fighting on the front lines are B teamers or rank amateurs.
2. Russians withdrew so fast there was no chance for an orderly withdrawal due to the speed and ferocity with which the Ukrainians advanced.

Ukraine just liberate an arms depot, in there were ten of thousand rounds of 152 munition.

Unlike in Kharkiv, they know they are going to have to abandon their position, yet they didn't try to detonate (not much of a point to bring it with you) those munition and denied them for the Ukrainian. That showing how much training and control these troop have.

What my friend suggested is that the regular, experienced guy left without telling the mobik and national guard, and the latter was left behind and retreat in panic.

That's what I expect to see in 2-3 yrs too, but....

1. Belarus
2. Blakans

I don't thin Lukashenko would have an easy time if and when Russian was defeated. Would he suck up to China? And would China take them??

Balkan was surrounded by NATO, I don't see anything Russia can do except maybe in Serbia.

 

[thetutle]

War is primitiv instinct. War is math. Ukraine can never kick the Russians out if they can’t inflict casualties to Russia at unsustainable rate. I know it’s cruel. But if Ukraine can kill more Russians then Putin can replace them then Ukraine wins. Almost all wars between a smaller country against a bigger opponent ends that way.

I'm not sure you can deplete any countries ability to raise troops. I've never seen it in any conflict. US killed a million Vietnamese, nazis killed 6 million jews. You cant really deplete anyones ability to raise an army.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591386593201459207

 

[BHAN85]

France has a unique exception given to them by NATO that their nukes will be not Art. 5 triggerable.



Russia didn't dare to use NBC against a non-NATO Ukraine even in the most opportune moment in May-July, and they will be afraid even more to use it against NATO Ukraine. That's simple.

Take a look how it's in Kharkow. They kept pounding the city with incendiaries, remote mining, and cluster.

UA started reacting with drone strikes on Bylhorod, and they went quiet after very light losses on their own territory.

If NATO-Ukarine will threaten to level a mid-sized Russian city on the border, they will concede.

Art V dont specify how states will defend each other.
Any state is free to choose the way they prefer.

But even if that was not the case, only a very naive person would think that Americans will help.

Americans are the main instigators of Ukraine mayhem.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591358702950309889

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591400066069192704