Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[jhungary]

I suspect for the Russians that will have a harsh reality during the winter. Which makes me wonder if the evacuation in Kherson City and claims of Ukrainians will blow up the dam is a way to get the civilians out and put troops into the homes while winter is coming especially for the newly mobilize with lack of winter gear and equipment. Would make more sense.

Well, the Russian can simply expel anyone in those home in Kherson and move into their quarter (which some report suggesting it already happened) they don't need to do all those move in order to move into people's quarter. It is widely believe that this is done so they can blame the Ukrainian when they take down the dam when they leave.

On the other hand, it wouldn't do much for the Russian to actually move into people's home, it is increasing likely Ukraine will take Nova Kakhovka before winter set in, which mean the Russian is going to have to do without water or at least electricity in Kherson anyway. They are going to face a harsh winter in Kherson, with or without living in people's home.

 

[jhungary]

Im not sure how legal it is to drop too many bombs on this guy who is wounded and without a weapon.

International Law only cover soldier that had surrendered. Once you become a POW, you are protected by the Geneva convention. Any hostile action toward POW is strictly forbidden.

Interestingly, First Geneva Convention only covered wounded and sick soldier treatment on your own side, because once you turn over that wounded soldier (it's also strictly forbidden to do so unless in exceptional circumstance), that soldier would become a POW of the other party. Then Third Geneva Convention applies.

Treaties, States parties, and Commentaries - Geneva Convention (I) on Wounded and Sick in Armed Forces in the Field,1949

Treaties, States parties, and Commentaries - Geneva Convention (III) on Prisoners of War, 1949

What so interesting is, First Geneva Convention protect that wounded soldier from being murdered and tortured by his own side, while Third Geneva Convention protect that soldier who upon becoming a POW, from being torture and murdered by the enemy.

Seeing that guy is still in Russian dugout, he is fair game by the Ukrainian until he surrendered (eg waving a white flag) to the Ukrainian and become POW. Because before he became a POW, the Geneva convention does not applies to the Ukrainian. On the other hand, if the Russian shoot that guy when he was in a Russian dug out, then Russia is actually violating the first Geneva convention....

 

[TruthHurtz]

I suspect for the Russians that will have a harsh reality during the winter. Which makes me wonder if the evacuation in Kherson City and claims of Ukrainians will blow up the dam is a way to get the civilians out and put troops into the homes while winter is coming especially for the newly mobilize with lack of winter gear and equipment. Would make more sense.

Are you that high on copium that you believe Russia isn't prepared for the winter? I mean when was the last time they did that, fight in the winter?! Even *if* they lacked modern winter gear, they could simply draw upon millions of winter kits from Soviet stockpiles. Those bided them through all those Russian winters.

On one hand, wiping out Ukraine's power infrastructure will do nothing. But absolutely, Russians will totally collapse in the winter because they don't have warm clothes. Wishcasting delirium ad nauseam. Russia is evacuating Kherson and getting dug in because they're anticipating a large scale counteroffensive. Do you want civilians to stay behind and get caught in the crossfire? Or massacred for being "traitors" like the Ukrainians have stated on their Telegrams?

You do know if it come to worse for the Ukrainian and Ukrainian cannot endure the "Harsh" winter anymore, they can do something call "Leave" for 4 months, A nice and warm accommodation with hot food and hot shower is just 15 hours bus ride pay for by the government, away in Poland. And last I heard Polish government WELCOME ALL Refugee in Ukraine. no one will be turn around. It's not like they had no choice but to stay and endure this "Harsh" winter, I mean, there are already 10 million people left temporary. It's not like it's something they would not, or could not do.

Does the EU even have accommodation for 10 million people for 4 months? Poland is literally burning garbage to stay warm and you believe they and the rest of Europe have all this spare capacity? Stop handwaving the very real consequences of destroying Ukraine's energy infrastructure, it's the backbone of every civilisation. This is a massive logistical problem for Ukraine and NATO which will sap morale and require significant resources that maybe don't even exist to alleviate.

 

[BHAN85]

Russia does not care if a war is legal or not so it is not an interesting point.
Considering that most of NATO has promised support in the case of an attack, it is unlikely that Russia tries. Even without NATO. Russia appears to lack the logistics to execute an amphibious invasion. If Russia would be fighting a legal war, it could legally attack any state which, like Sweden, choose not to be neutral.
A final point is that International Law does not change just because part of it is inconvenient to Sweden.

Russia just work around all international laws about war saying that what they do is not a war, it's a "special military operation".

It's like when USA launched "preemptive strike" against Iraq.
USA doesnt launch "first strikes", USA launchs "preemptive strikes"

Russia doesnt start "war", Russia start "special military operation" in a foreign country .

I think both are a pair of criminals evil clowns countries.

 

[jhungary]

Does the EU even have accommodation for 10 million people for 4 months? Poland is literally burning garbage to stay warm and you believe they and the rest of Europe have all this spare capacity? Stop handwaving the very real consequences of destroying Ukraine's energy infrastructure, it's the backbone of every civilisation. This is a massive logistical problem for Ukraine and NATO which will sap morale and require significant resources that maybe don't even exist to alleviate.

Dude, where do you think the 10 million people that HAD ALREADY left Ukraine is living? On the street?

It's the entire EU that help the Ukrainian refugee which have settlement scheme reach as far as United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. They don't just all stay in Poland you know.

You have to be stupid or naive or both to think EU and the Collective west cannot accept the entirety of Ukrainian civilian population for 4 months. When they already done that for 10 millions Ukrainian refugee (that's 1/4 of the ENTIRE Ukrainian population by the way) for 8 months already.

 

[Goritoes]

So Once again... Has Russia Surrendered yet ?

 

[jhungary]

So Once again... Has Russia Surrendered yet ?

Well, not yet, but I would probably thinking about it if I am a Russian soldier in Kherson.

I would not want to be a Russian soldier in Kherson for the next 3 months.

 

[Goritoes]

Well, not yet, but I would probably thinking about it if I am a Russian soldier in Kherson.

I would not want to be a Russian soldier in Kherson for the next 3 months.

As long as they are fighting, I remember reading through the first thread lots of posters here were confident that Russians will surrender within weeks, but here we are.

 

[jhungary]

As long as they are fighting, I remember reading through the first thread lots of posters here were confident that Russians will surrender within weeks, but here we are.

Well, the Russian is hanging on by basically sending untrained troop to replace the people they lost. The problem Russian facing from day 1 is manpower. Which they don't really have enough people to start a 4-front war. And that lost a lot of their experience ground troop. Which is what they still can't recover from 8 months into this war.

As I said, the situation in Kherson is a mess for the Russian, the only reason why they still hold Kherson is because Ukraine is probably under a strict order not to advance into the city and destroy the city with a street-to-street fight. Ukrainian already had troop within 30km border with Kherson, if they want to pull a Russia and bomb Kherson into rubble and then fight thru the rubble they could. It seems like tho, Ukraine wants to starve the Russian in Kherson to buckle, which is why they keep targeting the rear of Russian supply line in Kherson.

I don't know which is worse, defend a city that you are not particularly welcome there and died there, or get starve or frozen to death on the frontline just to prove a point by your superior that they are holding on the city by day.

 

[TruthHurtz]

Dude, where do you think the 10 million people that HAD ALREADY left Ukraine is living? On the street?

It's the entire EU that help the Ukrainian refugee which have settlement scheme reach as far as United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. They don't just all stay in Poland you know.

You have to be stupid or naive or both to think EU and the Collective west cannot accept the entirety of Ukrainian civilian population for 4 months. When they already done that for 10 millions Ukrainian refugee (that's 1/4 of the ENTIRE Ukrainian population by the way) for 8 months already.

It's 7.6 million, you think housing an additional 10 million for *at least* 4 months is some trivial logistical task that won't strain resources? You think Soviet-era transformers and electrical substations are easy to replace within that timespan? I actually think you would have to be stupid or naïve to think refugees would return to a stone age country in the spring.

 

[TruthHurtz]

Well, the Russian is hanging on by basically sending untrained troop to replace the people they lost. The problem Russian facing from day 1 is manpower. Which they don't really have enough people to start a 4-front war. And that lost a lot of their experience ground troop. Which is what they still can't recover from 8 months into this war.

As I said, the situation in Kherson is a mess for the Russian, the only reason why they still hold Kherson is because Ukraine is probably under a strict order not to advance into the city and destroy the city with a street-to-street fight. Ukrainian already had troop within 30km border with Kherson, if they want to pull a Russia and bomb Kherson into rubble and then fight thru the rubble they could. It seems like tho, Ukraine wants to starve the Russian in Kherson to buckle, which is why they keep targeting the rear of Russian supply line in Kherson.

I don't know which is worse, defend a city that you are not particularly welcome there and died there, or get starve or frozen to death on the frontline just to prove a point by your superior that they are holding on the city by day.

Well, the Russian is hanging on by basically sending untrained troop to replace the people they lost

Why are Ukraine fans so fixated on this "poorly-trained hungry conscripts" meme, all mobiks have prior military service. Ukraine is on their 9th wave of mobilisation and apparently they're all well trained and competent and there's nothing to be concerned about there.

And that lost a lot of their experience ground troop. Which is what they still can't recover from 8 months into this war

And Ukraine hasn't? There are 200k+ Russian soldiers in Ukraine fighting and gaining experience, so I don't know what you're trying to prove here.

As I said, the situation in Kherson is a mess for the Russian, the only reason why they still hold Kherson is because Ukraine is probably under a strict order not to advance into the city and destroy the city with a street-to-street fight.

They hold Kherson because they are getting dug in to repel counteroffensives, setting up defensible positions and mining fields etc. There are around 40k Russian troops in the region. Ukraine cannot simply waltz in and take the city, every incursion so far has been repulsed and Ukrainian forces and supply lines/dumps are being harassed with artillery and loitering drones. The environmental conditions are also not favourable for the Ukrainians, the mud is a death trap for vehicles and a bum-rush through roads would be a suicide mission.

Ukrainian already had troop within 30km border with Kherson, if they want to pull a Russia and bomb Kherson into rubble and then fight thru the rubble they could

They can't, see above.

 

[ZeGerman]

Why are Ukraine fans so fixated on this "poorly-trained hungry conscripts" meme, all mobiks have prior military service. Ukraine is on their 9th wave of mobilisation and apparently they're all well trained and competent and there's nothing to be concerned about there.

And Ukraine hasn't? There are 200k+ Russian soldiers in Ukraine fighting and gaining experience, so I don't know what you're trying to prove here.

They hold Kherson because they are getting dug in to repel counteroffensives, setting up defensible positions and mining fields etc. There are around 40k Russian troops in the region. Ukraine cannot simply waltz in and take the city, every incursion so far has been repulsed and Ukrainian forces and supply lines/dumps are being harassed with artillery and loitering drones. The environmental conditions are also not favourable for the Ukrainians, the mud is a death trap for vehicles and a bum-rush through roads would be a suicide mission.

They can't, see above.

I do see a lot more ukranian losses from russian sources. Kherson is pure grinding for both sides now it seems.

However with the bad logistical lines and if the ukranians can keep up pressure and artillery attacks, it will be a difficult winter for the russians.


As for attacks on electric/water net.
1. Terrorbombing civilian targets often did not break morale in the past.
2. Civilians can be relocated to other parts ukraine/EU.
3. Freezing kids are huge on matter of winning propaganda war/enticing further support. Flow of electric engineering, generators, warm clothes, and further anti-drone-anti air will accelerate.

I do not see this tactic as “winning the war” for russia.

In meantime.
Winter so far in europe is light. (Luckily).
This means were almost at 100% gas reserves, while gas prices are falling. The latter spells big problems for Russia on the economic war front.

Support for war-aid remains high in europe. Despite economic hardship so far.
Even new supposedly pro-russian leaders (Italy) show solidarity.

Some risk from the USA with their GOP nutters winning elections. However there is bipartisan support and i do not see them being able to backtrack lend-lease etc.

 

[jhungary]

It's 7.6 million, you think housing an additional 10 million for *at least* 4 months is some trivial logistical task that won't strain resources? You think Soviet-era transformers and electrical substations are easy to replace within that timespan? I actually think you would have to be stupid or naïve to think refugees would return to a stone age country in the spring.

Lol, it wouldn't be 10 million people leaving now, Russian cannot take down the entire grid, most likely East of the Dnieper because Poland and Romania can and have been redirecting their grid to Lviv and Western Part of Ukraine, which unless you try to bomb the substation one by one which would be in Hundred if not Thousand, those place near the Poland and Romania border will not be affected.

On the other hand, Ukraine still have 3 Nuclear Power Plant functioning in Western Side of the Country (Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Yuzhnoukrainsk) combine with 4000 MW in total, those will not be bombed and take out of action and those can effectively supplies almost 90% of Western Ukraine, consider Ukraine power consumption per capita is 2800kW, which is roughly 1/3 of the entire Electricity output per year. Which mean it will not add another 10 millions refugee, because at least half of Ukraine are men, and half of the women and children and those who can leave had already left, and you are talking about 4 to 5 million people at most that can leave Ukraine. And a lot of those are in Western Ukraine.

So yes, EU can take care of whatever refugee for 4 months without straining supplies. And lol, have you even talked to any Ukrainian refugee? Do you even know why only around 10 million left and not all of them are gone even when there is a war rage on? Don't ask people stupid question like that, if Ukrainian don't feel Ukrainian nationalism, they would have already surrendered a long time ago. You have to be naive to think Ukrainian would just bolt and never come back, if they do, then no one will be fighting the Russian right now.

 

[jhungary]

Why are Ukraine fans so fixated on this "poorly-trained hungry conscripts" meme, all mobiks have prior military service. Ukraine is on their 9th wave of mobilisation and apparently they're all well trained and competent and there's nothing to be concerned about there.

First of all, you do know Russian give on average 1 week of training to the Russian mobilised troop before sending them in Ukraine. IT's about a month (maybe 5 weeks) since the announcement of mobilisation, and approximately half of the mobilised troop are already in Ukraine, which mean at best the best troop in that group have around 2 weeks of trianing.

I personally train an intake of TDF force when I was in Ukraine back in April, it takes me 7 weeks to do that particular intake while their class ends in 9 weeks, just 4-weeks shorts of US Army Basic Training.

How much soldiering can you teach someone in 2 weeks max? I would say even 7 weeks or 9 if you also counted the PT phase, is not enough, how "well train" can you be for if you are trained for 2 weeks?

And Ukraine hasn't? There are 200k+ Russian soldiers in Ukraine fighting and gaining experience, so I don't know what you're trying to prove here.

The problem is Ukraine do not have a manpower issue, not because they are on the 9th round of mobilisation, it's because their mobilisation are trained and equipped with US and NATO advisor, sometime train in Europe. That relief the training staff for frontline service. Russia on the other hand, have almost all of their doctrine and command staff in the frontline fighting, then you wonder who are giving these new recruit their training?

The latest intel suggest Russian recruit are farmed out to Belarus for their initial training, and Belarus is not really know for their strict military discipline nor training regime, the best I can compare is if US ask Iraq to train the new US troop for frontline combat. How does that work??

They hold Kherson because they are getting dug in to repel counteroffensives, setting up defensible positions and mining fields etc. There are around 40k Russian troops in the region. Ukraine cannot simply waltz in and take the city, every incursion so far has been repulsed and Ukrainian forces and supply lines/dumps are being harassed with artillery and loitering drones. The environmental conditions are also not favourable for the Ukrainians, the mud is a death trap for vehicles and a bum-rush through roads would be a suicide mission.

What defensible position? First of all, you know anyone with satellite can see how many defenses fortification is done in Kherson, right? There are only 1 line, and there are 3 behind Kherson between Kherson and Crimea. Which make sense because Kherson is ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE RIVER. And the Russian is on the wrong side of it.

Also, assuming you know something about how Forward defensive position works, it can be easily destroyed by artillery and reduced by bombardment. The Russian forward position is beyond Russian own artillery protection because it was expelled by the HIMARS and US and NATO made Artillery that pushes that line to 60km and beyond. Which mean whatever defensive position in front of Kherson is untenable simply because Ukrainian can bomb it day and night with their ranged artillery that outrange Russian.

And then you talk about supplies. How are you supplying Kherson with 3 broken and blown up bridge? There are no roadway nor railway connecting Kherson and Russian held rear, you are talking about 20,000 to 30,000 troop in Kherson which conventional wisdom suggest you will need 150-200 tons of supply per day to supply those troop minimum, most likely 300+ ton to be considered well fed and well-armed. How are you going to ship 200 tons of supply a day in cars or makeshift ferry?

They can't, see above.

What do you mean they can't? They are within 30km of Kherson, and that's according to Russian reporting. M777 have 45km range, Caeser have 55km Range, Pzh2000 have 60km range, HIMARS have 80km+ range. Even D-30 with rocket assisted round have 30km range, are you saying there are some kinds of forcefield that it cannot be shoot artillery and rocket from even they are well within range??

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1589515456682917888

https://twitter.com/x/status/1589303357134770176