East of Dnieper is a zone where Ukraine mostly uses Buk Osa and similar. Regarding the costs an operation to Kiev might require many Ruaf planes but Avdiivka and Robotyne are not Kiev. There are logistics costs for Ukraine to deploy any system there. Even if they deploy Nasams for example regarding the problems you mentioned. Avdiivka and Robotyne type of areas are different than heavily supplied areas like Kiev or Odessa.
Again, you can't just try to pincer an area, whether it is Robotyne, Kyiv or Avdiivka, you need train troop to do the work, yes, the difficulty level are different, because to Pincer Kyiv, you will need at least 400,000 troop doing an open pincer from North, East and South, that's virtually off Russian menu, but that does not mean you can just use 30,000 untrain troop to try to pincer Avdiivka, because it will ended up like what they do, which is rush in for a frontal assault, not because they lack them number, but because they lack the skill.
The troop itself is a problem, you need 6 - 9 months training and countless of FTX to pull out a pincer movement on a city,
you don't just push 2 fronts into the enemy, that's not pincer, that's just a 2 frontal assault. There are a lot of leapfrogging, firing artillery ahead of your advance, you need blocking, funneling, and anything else I can't remember on top of my head. That is not going to be doable for Russian troop that drafted 4 months ago, and if you cannot put the 2 fronts to works together, again, you are just launching 2 frontal assaults at once, and it will most definitely got beaten back by even a Brigade of Ukrainian defence with potent artillery support. That is like how VC trying to take Khe Shan from US Marine, they don't act like one force, they acted like a separate attack, and one go after the city and one go after the main camp without synchronizing move, and that got beaten back by a division of Marine. That is the problem not how many you are facing.
1-Radars can stay close and disappear. Orion drones enter and zap out artillery and tanks like in Karabagh without intervention. Radars open and down a few Orions but rwr on Orion alerts Su 35 with elint pod to precisely locate Nasams. Then alerting other planes to attack with stand off weapons like fab 250 or more range variants. Some artillery + Nasams Ukraine loss with only unmanned Orion lost from Russian side.
How do you know where is the Ukrainian artillery so you can hit? Are you suggesting those Orion Drone and Su-35 stay airborne and look for those??
Again, you need a theater-wise campaign to map any AA and AS threat, even if you are being attack by artillery, and you figured out where those artillery are, they won't be there when you send your drone and after them, they move. So, what you said will not work, you need active response, not passive. You need to be able to attack them WHISLE the Ukrainian are using their artillery, otherwise what you do is just chasing ghost, you are chasing down location 5 or 10 minutes after they attack, they will be long gone by then, and that's the primary, not to mention you fly in Su-35 in an unsuppressed space you
WILL GET SHOT DOWN.
And you can't just do that in 1 side of the battlefield either, you need to be able to do it at least on the entire frontline, preferably entire country.....
2-Those are true for Patriot installations in Kiev but bringing them to Avdiivka is a huge logistics issue. Nasams as well. Considering they have similar components like S300s in Karabagh conflict many Armenian air defenses were made inoperable by striking only their key compoments not whole installation. Radar is a key component that cannot be easily replaced for sam systems and make them inoperable for a long time. Russia needs to develop and install sensitive elint pods on Su 35s that can distinguish decoys as well and even without needing spy satellite photos high weight less mobile systems like Nasams Iris-T can be precisely located from long ranges.
Those are true for all system, you don't just have 1 single unit in a system other than MANPAD. Buk is made of 10 system a BUK TAR (Target Acquisition Radar) 6 TELAR, and 3 TEL, and they can be link to other Buk System in the area....S-300P have 4 components ( TELAR, LLV, TEL and TAR) with virtually unlimited mix and match.
And then you don't position your system in the frontline in Avdviikva, you position them in range to protect them, which usually 150-200 km from its protection because you don't need to have 0 engagement distant, as in you don't need to be deployed WITHIN Avdviikva to shoot down aircraft or drone that fly into Avdviikva...... While yes there will be some TEL close enough to defend Avdiikva, those are in turn protected by other TEL further away, ...
And finally, you can't assume Ukrainian Air Defence are not deployed in a Balance Approach, I mean sure, if you think they can't or won't deploy whatever system then yes, what you said would happen, but then, does that mean it is true that they won't deploy NASAM or Even Patriot to defend Adviikva?
I mean all that while most you are proposing is true if you can pull it off, but how you can achieve what you say you will do
IS the problem here, I can say if Russian pincer Kyiv from 3 sides and Russia will win the war, that is true
IF YOU CAN ACTUALLY DO IT and have 3 pincer on Kyiv doorstep, but how you achieve that IS the issue, not whether or not pincering Kyiv will win the war for Russia.......