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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

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thetutle said:
Yeah if you get shot by the side you're trying to get to, doesnt mean you weren't trying to get to them, just means youre an idiot.

And if they get to stay in Ukraine, you might was well use it for propaganda. turn a new page. There is a lot of pro russian elements in ukraine. they can arrest them all. They just manage it.

anyway, what do you think of the new offensive that coming. 100 or 200 tanks with great combined arms training, I think it will kick some serious arse. They will punch through those lines and cause massive problems for Russians. I would not want to be in their way.
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As I said, the Ukrainian authority would most likely would have checked what they said, I mean they aren't really that incompetent and given that Izyum is back to Ukraine and they like to shoot traitor very much, I doubt they are trying to defect. I mean, not that high profile...

Anyway, we don't know how effective the Ukrainian would be, as I always said, there are a possibility that they F this opportunities up like how the Russian F up their winter offensive, this winter offensive in military term is even worse than the time the Russian got beaten back from Kyiv, because at least they kept bulk of their force in Kyiv, most western intel suggest Russia loses at least 50% casualty of their force in this push into, well, this supposed 3 pronged attack from Kreminna to Torske, Bakhmut and Vuhledar but in reality we all know only Bakhmut has make some progress, That was shown to the west as a sure things to roll Ukrainian back at least 5 to 7% of their land come out literally nothing. There is a chance that this highly anticipated counteroffensive could fail.

What I would say is this. Ukraine probably did their homework and have done some ISTAR, they had preserved their force (They put those counter offensive force out of the Russian offensive) and they most likely stocking up long range rocket artillery ammo by saving the HIMARS for this push. Everything they did at this moment is what they should have done on paper, so by that account, once that 3 armor and mechanised brigades come into play, they should follow the expected result, but again, the offensive could still be retardedly executed, so I can't say this is a sure thing, as nobody can say that.,

As for which way they will go. It depends on how they think of the battlefield. Conventional Wisdom suggest (and seeing Putin visiting those area sort of cemented that idea) a drive into Melitopol or even Mariupol all the way is the way to go, it would cut off the entire Russian battlefield and will have to make them choose to support one or the other, that would be very high risk because that is probably very fortified by now. A more approachable solution is to cut east from Kreminna into Svatove that would not be as hard but that would simply roll back and relief the Eastern front, it would not change the battlefield dynamic a bit, this is what we would called a "Small bite approach" or they could just push thru Bakhmut (if the Russian have not been able to take it before the Ukrainian launch their counter attack) then that would trap most of the Russian force in the area. But that situation is pretty unlikely.
 
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1649429906009325569

Germany has to re-arm. Don't expect Russia Republicans to save Europe, these are on Putins side.

Germany has to make for Germany: Tens of thousands of field artillery. Tens of thousands of mortars. Hundreds of millions of shells and rounds. Tens of thousands of drones. Tens of thousands of shoulder fired anti-tank missiles. Hundreds of thousand of RPGs. Thousands of air/drone/ballistic missile defense systems. Then build lesser priorities of tanks, IFVs, jets.

Russia has overwhelming firepower. Germany must match firepower with firepower.

Germany could not defend from/defeat the Iraqi Army in 1990. They would be crushed by the whole Russian army against Germany. Ukraine is only facing a small taste of the forces Russia can throw at it. And Ukraine is far more well armed with ground forces firepower than Germany. After Ukraine is knocked out, Russia can roll over Poland and Germany. The German Navy is not saving Germany. Russias airforce is barely touched, according to experts. Russia is saving the capability to deal a crushing blow to Poland and Germany. Therefore is not going 100% in the war in Ukraine, as Russia held back in Georgia and Chechnya.

Germany already wasted a year in not building the factories for the arms industry.

Once churning out the military equipment quickly, then get nukes.

If it takes 1000 Russians to destroy one Germany Tank. Russia would spend 1 million to destroy 1000 German tanks. That is the dedication Russia has in defeating Germany.

Russia has proven in two world wars, to sacrifice as many for victory. Putin does not care about Russians. Putin cares about the mission to destroy the EU and Germany.

That is why you need to match Russia ground forces firepower with equal ground forces firepower.
 
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mulj said:
Double this and russians would be in real trouble to contain them till russian border, maybe that is why they conducting intesive fortification worls along whole fronts lines and behind.
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You don't need to double that number because this is going to be combine arms (well, at least that is what we all thought) and combine arms attack usually apply pressure on weak point, Russia had around 200,000 soldiers along the entire frontline (most likely less than that now, but let's just say that it does), all you do is to find a weak point where the enemy concentration is in their favor and attack there, a gap with 10,000 or 15,000 defender within the entire 1200 km frontline and push thru there, you don't need to pit those mechanised brigade against the entire Russian frontline.

The West don't fight the way Russian do where they take town center, Combine arms operation aims at taking the road leading into the town center and surround/bypass the town. You punch thru the line with your armour and then drop your mechanised infantry to encircle the town, and then you move on.

What people don't realise is, by defending Bakhmut, Ukrainian is saving their own mechanised force, I mean Bakhmut defence is statics and in the business we call them "Low Cost Defence" because you don't need to use IFV, Tank, Artillery or Aircraft much, you simply put troop in a city to grind down the enemy. Yes, the lost would be appalling for Ukraine, but you save the equipment. Which mean beside what the West gave them, now they have another 3 or 4 of their own Mechanised Brigade that can be put into the fight with the newly formed Western Arms brigade. So instead of mostly Western Tank (Leo 1, Leo 2, Challenger 2 and Abrams), you are going to see some T-72 and T-80 in the mix for the upcoming action. With BMP and Bradley/CV90 bringing in the mechanise infantry.
 
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zectech said:
Germany has to re-arm. Don't expect Russia Republicans to save Europe, these are on Putins side.

Germany has to make for Germany: Tens of thousands of field artillery. Tens of thousands of mortars. Hundreds of millions of shells and rounds. Tens of thousands of drones. Tens of thousands of shoulder fired anti-tank missiles. Hundreds of thousand of RPGs. Thousands of air/drone/ballistic missile defense systems. Then build lesser priorities of tanks, IFVs, jets.
Click to expand...

1. Kick out US/EU/NATO
2. build flying tanks
 
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F-22Raptor said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1649455670935126029
Click to expand...
That's just from what the West gave them, mostly they are spacing it out into 3 ABCT (From the 150-200 Leo 1, Leo 2, Challenger 2 and Abrams we gave them), 3 Styker/Assault BCT and 3 Mechanised Brigade loaded with around 200 Bradley, CV90 and the one that the German gave (forgot the name)) .

Notice that Ukrainian armoured formation was not involved at all in Bakhmut and Adviikva, they are most likely going thru down time and prepping for the upcoming assault as well. I counted 4 Mechanised Brigade and 1 Tank Brigade is missing from the front line. Which mean they are going to have 14-15 Brigade for this assault.
 
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zectech said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1649429906009325569

Germany has to re-arm. Don't expect Russia Republicans to save Europe, these are on Putins side.

Germany has to make for Germany: Tens of thousands of field artillery. Tens of thousands of mortars. Hundreds of millions of shells and rounds. Tens of thousands of drones. Tens of thousands of shoulder fired anti-tank missiles. Hundreds of thousand of RPGs. Thousands of air/drone/ballistic missile defense systems. Then build lesser priorities of tanks, IFVs, jets.

Russia has overwhelming firepower. Germany must match firepower with firepower.

Germany could not defend from/defeat the Iraqi Army in 1990. They would be crushed by the whole Russian army against Germany. Ukraine is only facing a small taste of the forces Russia can throw at it. And Ukraine is far more well armed with ground forces firepower than Germany. After Ukraine is knocked out, Russia can roll over Poland and Germany. The German Navy is not saving Germany. Russias airforce is barely touched, according to experts. Russia is saving the capability to deal a crushing blow to Poland and Germany. Therefore is not going 100% in the war in Ukraine, as Russia held back in Georgia and Chechnya.

Germany already wasted a year in not building the factories for the arms industry.

Once churning out the military equipment quickly, then get nukes.

If it takes 1000 Russians to destroy one Germany Tank. Russia would spend 1 million to destroy 1000 German tanks. That is the dedication Russia has in defeating Germany.

Russia has proven in two world wars, to sacrifice as many for victory. Putin does not care about Russians. Putin cares about the mission to destroy the EU and Germany.

That is why you need to match Russia ground forces firepower with equal ground forces firepower.
Click to expand...
Russia is not the USSR. Russia has so far been able project its land power less than 100 km outside its own territory. Germany is an economic giant compared to Ukraine, Germany is not infiltrated by russian fueled corruption and Germany is part of NATO. Russia couldnt even reach german territory if they tried.
 
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jhungary said:
That's just from what the West gave them, mostly they are spacing it out into 3 ABCT (From the 150-200 Leo 1, Leo 2, Challenger 2 and Abrams we gave them), 3 Styker/Assault BCT and 3 Mechanised Brigade loaded with around 200 Bradley, CV90 and the one that the German gave (forgot the name)) .

Notice that Ukrainian armoured formation was not involved at all in Bakhmut and Adviikva, they are most likely going thru down time and prepping for the upcoming assault as well. I counted 4 Mechanised Brigade and 1 Tank Brigade is missing from the front line. Which mean they are going to have 14-15 Brigade for this assault.
Click to expand...
German IFV is named Marder.
I dont think the Leopard 1 have reached Ukraine yet. Instructors in Denmark are brushing up using Leopard 1s keept in tank museums .. and thats the truth. They were withdrawn from service in 2007.
 
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