Russia & Pakistan's Growing Engagement

[monitor]

 

[regular]

Okay this is great news that the two countries are forgetting their past and renewing up their relations for the 21st century challenges.....keepup guyz.....its need of an hour to create a strong and positive bond/relationship for the safety and security of the region........

 

[Rahil khan]

....

Woah! Slow down man! Cargo, oil, exports and imports are the end product what you're expecting here. The simple reason right now most countries are interested in Pakistan is because of one sole objective: security. Russia's underbelly, China's western flank and our northern flank are coinciding there.

With Pakistan being at the helm of the problem zone, it is natural that Russia would want to have some additional leverage in controlling the loonies that are there in Afghan-Pakistan border region that borders with Tajikistan which is well... almost Russian territory. The last thing Russia wants is to send troops to the region once again, although they've been considering it all along.

Specifically, Putin has three important reasons to be interested in Pakistan



That's fine enough but trade relies on one single factor: Security and its involved costs. The area you're talking about is the most hostile in the region. Which insurer would insure those goods transiting from Karachi to NWFP and into Tajikistan? While Tajikistan onwards is safe, Gwadar and Karachi and judging by the current situation in Pakistan, nothing else is



Through Pakistan to where? Russia has a direct land link with China and via its former states Kazakhstan and even via Mongolia The only massive customer of oil and gas in the south across Pakistan is us Indians. Do you really think Pakistanis would allow the gas to reach us without trying to keep it a hostage?

That's where the whole thing changes.



Pakistanis need to get out of their imaginary delusions of how they "defeated the Soviet Union". Afghan war was never your war yet you took part in it, suffering its consequences today.

It was the Taliban and constant supply of money, resources, weapons and political support is what kept the fight alive. One side involved in USSR vs 20+ countries against it.

Had NATO's backing, Saudi's money and China's collusion not been a part of it, USSR and Najibulla government would have crushed Talibunnies with and Iron fist and Afghanistan would have been as developed as Turkey today.

USSR never wanted to fight against Pakistanis. How long do you think would Pakistan have lasted if it was a head-on fight? Two hours is my most liberal bet. The Soviets would have overrun Pakistani territory in a matter of hours without NATO's resource pouring.



Nice flag there. . The US won't leave Afghanistan completely ever. This is such a golden opportunity. Besides, just google around; Putin wants US to stay because till US engages Taliban via Pakistan's duplicity as a double agent, Russian underbelly is free from jihadi terror. Otherwise it would only harm Russian interests if they have to send troops to the Tajik-Afghan-Pakistan region



Please tell me honestly, don't you think they would have thought about this if they could do it? The situation is not as rosy as you think it is sitting in US.

You talked about Russia and Najibullah's regime and said that they could have converted Afghanistan up to a level of Turkey. Woooow. That's a lot exaggeration isn't it. I don't think Pakistan convinced Afghans to resist against the Russia and Najibullah's puppet regime back in 70s. Your thoughts shows your utter ignorance of the fact that Afghans never ever accepted any foreign invasion on its soil. How Najibullah could have converted Afghanistan into Turkey today???? through narcotics? drugs? AK-47s? What sort of developmental plans you know which Russians tried to implement. Bitter reality is that, you would have found not a single structure standing in the major cities due to to heavy bombing. Afghans were resisting heavily against Russians prior to the Western Aid which came in the mid 80s. And i will advise you to check the Soviet "Warm Water Policy" which is very important for you to read because for your information Afghanistan is not a sea linked country............We fought the Afghan war and yes we are proud of it. Just check the no of Afghan refugees still residing in Pakistan. Just check the history how ISI officials trained the Afghan Mujahideens to fire the stinger missiles.....Just check how many times how Hickmatyar, Rabbani, Ahmed Shah Masood, Haqqani, became the guest of President house Islamabad. Just check the history of battle for Hill 3234......Russia was exhausted and tired after 10 years of heavy loses. But let me tell you this. If Russians would have invaded Pakistan, we were ready.......more than 8 intruder planes were shot down by PAF in the 80s. You have noooooooooooooo idea how 15 million tribes men of Pakistan would of reacted to any aggression at that time. So come outa your foolish world......and try to learn something about those Afghan people who live in a "NORTH WEST" and who ruled INDIA for hundreds of years..........

 

[TVVELVEMO$]

Woah! Slow down man! Cargo, oil, exports and imports are the end product what you're expecting here. The simple reason right now most countries are interested in Pakistan is because of one sole objective: security. Russia's underbelly, China's western flank and our northern flank are coinciding there.

With Pakistan being at the helm of the problem zone, it is natural that Russia would want to have some additional leverage in controlling the loonies that are there in Afghan-Pakistan border region that borders with Tajikistan which is well... almost Russian territory. The last thing Russia wants is to send troops to the region once again, although they've been considering it all along.

Specifically, Putin has three important reasons to be interested in Pakistan



That's fine enough but trade relies on one single factor: Security and its involved costs. The area you're talking about is the most hostile in the region. Which insurer would insure those goods transiting from Karachi to NWFP and into Tajikistan? While Tajikistan onwards is safe, Gwadar and Karachi and judging by the current situation in Pakistan, nothing else is



Through Pakistan to where? Russia has a direct land link with China and via its former states Kazakhstan and even via Mongolia The only massive customer of oil and gas in the south across Pakistan is us Indians. Do you really think Pakistanis would allow the gas to reach us without trying to keep it a hostage?

That's where the whole thing changes.



Pakistanis need to get out of their imaginary delusions of how they "defeated the Soviet Union". Afghan war was never your war yet you took part in it, suffering its consequences today.

It was the Taliban and constant supply of money, resources, weapons and political support is what kept the fight alive. One side involved in USSR vs 20+ countries against it.

Had NATO's backing, Saudi's money and China's collusion not been a part of it, USSR and Najibulla government would have crushed Talibunnies with and Iron fist and Afghanistan would have been as developed as Turkey today.

USSR never wanted to fight against Pakistanis. How long do you think would Pakistan have lasted if it was a head-on fight? Two hours is my most liberal bet. The Soviets would have overrun Pakistani territory in a matter of hours without NATO's resource pouring.



Nice flag there. . The US won't leave Afghanistan completely ever. This is such a golden opportunity. Besides, just google around; Putin wants US to stay because till US engages Taliban via Pakistan's duplicity as a double agent, Russian underbelly is free from ****** terror. Otherwise it would only harm Russian interests if they have to send troops to the Tajik-Afghan-Pakistan region



Please tell me honestly, don't you think they would have thought about this if they could do it? The situation is not as rosy as you think it is sitting in US.

Ahem! I had thought you might come back with something. Sorry to keep you waiting.
I will begin with your last part-question:-I will let Putin tell you how rosy the situation is when he is in Islamabad next month.

You have a problem with my flag? Tough....if in US drop by I will show you how real America lives ...not sitting around as you put it.

I have a keen grasp of US policy in Central Asia. DO NOT need an Indian to explain to me nor do I google around to keep abreast of international developments that impact what I do. I have better means at my fingertips since ,as you put it, I sit pretty in the land of largesse! The remaining part of your para is extremely disjointed and hard to follow. US will find a solution to the Afghan conundrum but it will not be to your liking - stay tuned.

Russia is NOT USSR & is in no shape to send troops back into Central Asia, Afghanistan or Northern Pakistan. Plus it has better things on its radar.

"I" say this with emphasis on I; did not say anything about Pakistan beating USSR in my post yet you presumed.
Read it again. Soviets found Pakistan to be a worthy foe and respected their toughness. I think the Pak-Mil. I have talked with have had a healthy respect for Russians as soldiers (leave out the conscripts). Now that you have gone there; your nation failed to give worthwhile assistance to USSR as an ally in 1980s except the Operation in Nothern glaciers and two pointless mobilizations which ended in a whimper. Kind of the assistance US should expect in the near future? Huh!

As someone pointed earlier, there was no such thing as Taliban in 1979-1991. I believe US dealt with Mujaheddin fighters. One of the half a dozen factions was commaded by Ahmed Shah Masood who was living in Hyattabad, Pakistan.

Russia seeks links through Pakistan to destinations in Persian Gulf, Yemen, Oman, Sri Lanka, Ehtiopia, Maldives, Seychelles, Bangladesh, Australia, Kenya, South Africa, Argentina......& India. See a map. This is the shortest and economical route for heavy cargo. Your point about insurance is partly valid. But if NATO can ship through Pakistan, so can Russia & China. If Pakistan uses Chitral, Broghil Pass, Wakhan, Ishkashim then it bypasses problem areas. You should learn some more about the Quadrilateral Summit at Souchi, Russia.

If global trade were to rely on ONE thing, then it would be unmet need for goods & services by one party and willingness & ability to supply that need by another. Most trade carries some element of risk. Higher the risk > better the profits. Too much obsession with security retards pace of trade. You've got it backwards.

I think I hit most of your points. Look forward to your reponse? But do so after you have heard Putin speak in Pakistan in September.

 

[CYNOX]

I Agree with the notion That Russia is Not USSR anymore but, Russia China and Pakistan Would be Far Greater a Power. but we have to solve the Problems with Indians First, and Russia is and always Has been Suspicious of Pakistan. Lets See What Mr. Putin has to Say when he Arrives.

 

[-=virus=-]

Putin's a peacemaker , really the only thing standing between a nightmare scenario in the middle east and US led imperial interests who probably want that nightmare scenario to unfold . Better relations with Pakistan benefits the whole region .

Also , about the India issue .. well , politicians from both sides really need to give their respective "strategic alliances" with the US a serious second look .

That's my opinion on it anyway , scary times eh ?



also : first post .. yaay

 

[CYNOX]

Scary times Indeed. more for Pakistan and Iran than India. but one thing is for sure INDIA and PAKISTAN have to End all Grudges and Enemities.

 

[-=virus=-]

Scary times Indeed. more for Pakistan and Iran than India. but one thing is for sure INDIA and PAKISTAN have to End all Grudges and Enemities.

On the surface , yes . Pak / Iran do seem to be on the receiving end of the corporate media blitzkrieg but tactically I don't see them running over the Iranians and certainly not the Pakistanis from a military stand point . It's all there , the generals , the intelligence within the US and Israel , nobody wants a war with Iran . So far its only campaign rhetoric from the US (sure looks like it). and Netanyahu is just a really big mouth

Indo-Pak issue ? Lets all hope and prey we do , there is simply no other way .. not with all these very real WMDs we lot are hoarding anyway

 

[Rajput_Pakistani]

On the surface , yes . Pak / Iran do seem to be on the receiving end of the corporate media blitzkrieg but tactically I don't see them running over the Iranians and certainly not the Pakistanis from a military stand point . It's all there , the generals , the intelligence within the US and Israel , nobody wants a war with Iran . So far its only campaign rhetoric from the US (sure looks like it). and Netanyahu is just a really big mouth

Indo-Pak issue ? Lets all hope and prey we do , there is simply no other way .. not with all these very real WMDs we lot are hoarding anyway

Putin postponed his visit to Pakistan, thanks to some hidden hands. Regarding Pakistan India relations, we are living in a fools paradise. Pakistan after all her appeasement policy towards India has got nothing. India still interfering in Balochistan, FATA. Shamelessly violating Indus Basin treaty. Also playing dirty diplomatic games when come to Pakistan/Russian, Iran/Pakistan. Pakistan/Afghanistan relations. India is playing fire and its near when she will suffer very costly.

 

[-=virus=-]

Putin postponed his visit to Pakistan, thanks to some hidden hands. Regarding Pakistan India relations, we are living in a fools paradise. Pakistan after all her appeasement policy towards India has got nothing. India still interfering in Balochistan, FATA. Shamelessly violating Indus Basin treaty. Also playing dirty diplomatic games when come to Pakistan/Russian, Iran/Pakistan. Pakistan/Afghanistan relations. India is playing fire and its near when she will suffer very costly.

anyone in bed with western imperialist interests is on the wrong side of history imo , what about the Pakistani govt authorizing NATO to use lethal force inside it's own borders ?

it's a bigger chessboard out there than you think , don't be so nearsighted

 

[Kasim]

........hmmmmm



Look like Russia seeking Market for Second hand MiG Returned by India....

 

[surya kiran]

Ahem! I had thought you might come back with something. Sorry to keep you waiting.
I will begin with your last part-question:-I will let Putin tell you how rosy the situation is when he is in Islamabad next month.

You have a problem with my flag? Tough....if in US drop by I will show you how real America lives ...not sitting around as you put it.

I have a keen grasp of US policy in Central Asia. DO NOT need an Indian to explain to me nor do I google around to keep abreast of international developments that impact what I do. I have better means at my fingertips since ,as you put it, I sit pretty in the land of largesse! The remaining part of your para is extremely disjointed and hard to follow. US will find a solution to the Afghan conundrum but it will not be to your liking - stay tuned.

Russia is NOT USSR & is in no shape to send troops back into Central Asia, Afghanistan or Northern Pakistan. Plus it has better things on its radar.

"I" say this with emphasis on I; did not say anything about Pakistan beating USSR in my post yet you presumed.
Read it again. Soviets found Pakistan to be a worthy foe and respected their toughness. I think the Pak-Mil. I have talked with have had a healthy respect for Russians as soldiers (leave out the conscripts). Now that you have gone there; your nation failed to give worthwhile assistance to USSR as an ally in 1980s except the Operation in Nothern glaciers and two pointless mobilizations which ended in a whimper. Kind of the assistance US should expect in the near future? Huh!

As someone pointed earlier, there was no such thing as Taliban in 1979-1991. I believe US dealt with Mujaheddin fighters. One of the half a dozen factions was commaded by Ahmed Shah Masood who was living in Hyattabad, Pakistan.

Russia seeks links through Pakistan to destinations in Persian Gulf, Yemen, Oman, Sri Lanka, Ehtiopia, Maldives, Seychelles, Bangladesh, Australia, Kenya, South Africa, Argentina......& India. See a map. This is the shortest and economical route for heavy cargo. Your point about insurance is partly valid. But if NATO can ship through Pakistan, so can Russia & China. If Pakistan uses Chitral, Broghil Pass, Wakhan, Ishkashim then it bypasses problem areas. You should learn some more about the Quadrilateral Summit at Souchi, Russia.

If global trade were to rely on ONE thing, then it would be unmet need for goods & services by one party and willingness & ability to supply that need by another. Most trade carries some element of risk. Higher the risk > better the profits. Too much obsession with security retards pace of trade. You've got it backwards.

I think I hit most of your points. Look forward to your reponse? But do so after you have heard Putin speak in Pakistan in September.

I, with the emphasis on I, thought I will reply once I hear Putin speak in Pakistan in September. Its October. do you want me to reply or should I wait some more?

 

[Imran Khan]

Chief of Army Staff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani reviewing guard of honour in Moscow, Russia. (04-10-2012) – Photo ISPR

 

[KRAIT]

Imran bhai...FB pe aao...5 min baad milta hun

 

[fatman17]

Opinion Our Russian dreams

Farrukh Saleem
Tuesday, October 09, 2012


Diplomacy runs on two legs: economics and military-strategic. Russia does not produce anything – other than attack helicopters and military airplanes – that would be of value to Pakistan. Pakistan does not produce much that would be of interest to Russia (2011 imports, exports $20 million and $223 million, respectively). The other killer is the $6,000 per container freight between Karachi and St Petersburg.



Yes, there seems to be some convergence of interests over Afghanistan – and that is good. Russia, with whom we fought a proxy war for ten long years, has now come to acknowledge Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan’s future – and that is good. And yes, our Joint Fighter-17 is powered by a Russian engine. But diplomacy on one leg cannot run and when it walks it does not go that far.



On the Pakistani side, Islamabad cannot do without a foreign injection in the amount of $24 billion over the following 24 months and the GHQ is looking at diversifying its supplier base (as America is bound to loose interest in the region).



Yes, there are plenty of dreams. In one of our dreams, Gazprom, Russia’s largest gas and oil joint-stock company, is doling out many billions of dollars building the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. And the climax of that dream is Pakistan in possession of more gas than we will ever need in the wildest of our dreams.



Two questions. First, which bank on the face of the planet would lend Gazprom billions of dollars to build a pipeline that transports Iranian-origin natural gas?



Second, as Iranian gas will be more than 200 percent more expensive than what we get from Sui Southern and Sui Northern, how many in Pakistan will have the dollars to buy it?



In another one of our dreams, we are building a 5,000 km railroad infrastructure stretching from Pakistan to Iran to Azerbaijan, underneath the Caspian Sea, and then right into the Russian Federation. And the climax of that dream is Pakistan selling container loads of fantasies, worth billions of dollars, to 143 million Russians awfully hungry for Pakistani goodies. By the way, has Tez Gam reached Rawalpindi (it left Karachi a week ago).



In the few waking hours, when we are not demonstrating and burning Pakistan down, we need to do a SWOT analysis – our strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.



For starters, SBP’s net foreign reserves have fallen from $15 billion a year ago to around $10 billion. For starters, our 12-month current account deficit is going to be in the vicinity of $5 billion and our 12-month debt repayment is in the amount of $7 billion. That’s a total of $12 billion we need just to avoid bankruptcy over the following 12 months.



So we either print dollars or go begging for a bailout – the pipeline and the railroad fantasies would have to wait a bit longer.



Consider this: The SBP is printing Rs3 billion a day every day of the year. In 2007, Islamabad, to fill its budgetary gap, borrowed Rs230 billion from domestic sources. In 2012, Islamabad, to fill its budgetary gap, has already borrowed Rs1,800 billion from domestic sources.



Will Russia give us $12 billion over the following 12 months? Can Putin pass on a good word to the IMF? Alas, we have so many other nightmares that the pipeline and the railroad nightmares would have to wait for a better night.



On the positive side of things, “those who dream by day are cognisant of many things which escape those who dream only by night.”



The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. Email: farrukh15 *************