Russia Nears a Milestone

[Arzamas 16]

MOSCOW—Russia is on target to register its first natural population growth since the fall of the Soviet Union, with a slightly higher number of births than deaths being recorded so far this year, the labor minister said Wednesday.

Through the end of October, Russia had recorded 790 more births than deaths—a minute advance, but one that could mark a potential turning point in a troubling demographic trend that has seen the country's population on the decline since the early 1990s.

"Cumulative natural growth was recorded from the start of the year for the first time in many years," Labor Minister Maxim Topilin said.So far, Russia's birth rate in 2012 has risen 7% rise on the year with an increase seen in 80 of the country's 83 regions. Meanwhile, Russia's death rate has fallen 1.5% in the same period, the ministry said. In all of 2011, Russia saw 132,000 more deaths than births, the state statistic service said.

The figures stand in contrast to predictions made by many demographic experts in recent years—including the United Nations Population Division—that Russia faces a serious demographic crisis, with the potential of seeing its population fall by as much as 30% by 2050. But those who have kept a close eye on the situation warn that despite the signs of a turnaround, Russia faces a long road ahead.

"Demographic trends are like oil tankers—you cannot turn them around immediately," said James Nixey, a Russian policy expert at Chatham House in London. "What seems to me to be important is the working-age population—and actually that is something we do know 18 years ahead of time and it is rather depressing news for Russia."

Russia's demographic decline was so steep in the 1990s that the country was losing more than one million people a year. The problem was driven by plummeting life expectancy rates—Russian men currently live on average only to age 63—and high rates of emigration as economic conditions plummeted following the Soviet Union's collapse.

The drop off the demographic cliff spelled huge problems for Russia's creaky pension system, with some analysts speculating that the ratio of the country's working population to pensioners would reach 1-to-1 within two decades.

Russia's official population was 148.3 million in 1991, but by 2009, it had hit a low of 142.7 million. Since then the figure has stabilized somewhat, although experts say this is largely attributable to a high level of immigration of laborers from poorer ex-Soviet states, particularly those in Central Asia.

The problem grew so acute, that President Vladimir Putin has pushed for numerous government programs to help encourage Russians to have more children, proposing stipends for mothers who have more than two children, improved housing and educational prospects, and a more focused assault on high rates of male alcoholism.

Mr. Putin also suggested a new immigration policy to encourage Russians living abroad to return and talented foreign workers to move to the country to work. On Wednesday, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev signed a decree increasing quotas for migrant workers in certain retail areas.

Russia is not alone in facing a population crisis. Many European countries, including Germany, Italy, Spain and Denmark have all experienced declining fertility rates in recent years, leading to similar concerns about long-term economic impact.

Ivan Tchakarov, chief economist for Renaissance Capital in Moscow, said that government policies appear to have had some impact and that "doomsday prophesies" about Russia's demographic future haven't been supported by official statistics that show the gap between the country's birth and death rates steadily closing over the past decade.

"It has been driven by a combination of net migration and conscientious government policies to encourage births," Mr. Tchakarov said. "These doomsday prophesies about Russia's population decline may turn out to be ill-advised."


Russia Nears a Milestone - WSJ.com

 

[Cherokee]

This will Break heart of one very large Russian Neighbor . Nonetheless Congratulations Russia .

 

[veekysingh]

india will be pleased to sell some '' kamasutra'' books to russia. it will make things faster.

 

[xuxu1457]

wine is the enemy, if male Russian drink less wine，their lifespan will be more then 70years old , but 59years old now

 

[Developereo]

Many Russians to whom I have spoken say that lack of social mobility is the biggest reason they left Russia.

Russia: Ascent and dissent - FT.com

While income distribution in Russia creeps towards Latin American levels of inequality, having widened notably since the turn of the millennium, the state has incubated an ever more entrenched and inaccessible elite that now controls government and business, and jealously guards its privileged domain.

 

[kawaraj]

wine is the enemy, if male Russian drink less wine，their lifespan will be more then 70years old , but 59years old now

Russian women leaving the country also contributes to that population problem.

 

[Arzamas 16]

wine is the enemy, if male Russian drink less wine，their lifespan will be more then 70years old , but 59years old now

Its 64 years now, and getting better by the year.

 

[xuxu1457]

Its 64 years now, and getting better by the year.

in 2008, 59years
2010, 60years
average Alcoholism age of Russia male children is 11 years old, wine still a big problem

 

[PteX]

wine is the enemy, if male Russian drink less wine，their lifespan will be more then 70years old , but 59years old now

Wine? Vodka! Have you ever tasted Russian Vodka? It's like rocket fuel in your mouth.

 

[Audio]

From a Russian poster at another forums:

This is the last of the late 80s generation now having kids (there are a lot of people in this group).
Once that tapers off in a few years and the 90s generation start having kids (which is a considerably smaller group of people), we'll see how the numbers hold up.

Congrats anyhow!

 

[+4vsgorillas-Apebane]

I saw a documentary about one Russian city in Siberia where alcoholism and drugs is really rampant. People are resorting to a cheap home cooked drug called Krokodil (crocodile) that turns their skin green and scaly (hence the name).
The sad bit is that the city was once an Industrial hub with massive apartments and factories during the days of the Soviet Union. After the collapse people lost their way and took on unsavory habits like heroin and drinking. Those that remain are basically tearing down the remnant buildings for steel and other construction material to sell for - drugs, heroin and Krokodil.

The city is now full of small, sickly and hedonistic people living on the carcass of past greatness.

 

[KingMamba]

Isn't Putin paying people to have kids?? How is that working out, do people actually go for that?

 

[KingMamba]

Its 64 years now, and getting better by the year.

What is Arzamas doing to help the process??

 

[gpit]

This will Break heart of one very large Russian Neighbor . Nonetheless Congratulations Russia .

Don't use your fragile heart strength to image that of the others.

In addition, the southern biggest democracy of your imaged has even more enormous population. No threat is projected, but the reciprocal is not true (remember such diplomatic jokes as "China India enemy number 1" and a "China killer" missile, etc. )

 

[Cherokee]

Don't use your fragile heart strength to image that of the others.

In addition, the southern biggest democracy of your imaged has even more enormous population. No threat is projected, but the reciprocal is not true (remember such diplomatic jokes as "China India enemy number 1" and a "China killer" missile, etc. )

None of the three statements made sense . Try rewriting it again . Best of Luck.