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MOSCOWRussia is on target to register its first natural population growth since the fall of the Soviet Union, with a slightly higher number of births than deaths being recorded so far this year, the labor minister said Wednesday.
Through the end of October, Russia had recorded 790 more births than deathsa minute advance, but one that could mark a potential turning point in a troubling demographic trend that has seen the country's population on the decline since the early 1990s.
"Cumulative natural growth was recorded from the start of the year for the first time in many years," Labor Minister Maxim Topilin said.So far, Russia's birth rate in 2012 has risen 7% rise on the year with an increase seen in 80 of the country's 83 regions. Meanwhile, Russia's death rate has fallen 1.5% in the same period, the ministry said. In all of 2011, Russia saw 132,000 more deaths than births, the state statistic service said.
The figures stand in contrast to predictions made by many demographic experts in recent yearsincluding the United Nations Population Divisionthat Russia faces a serious demographic crisis, with the potential of seeing its population fall by as much as 30% by 2050. But those who have kept a close eye on the situation warn that despite the signs of a turnaround, Russia faces a long road ahead.
"Demographic trends are like oil tankersyou cannot turn them around immediately," said James Nixey, a Russian policy expert at Chatham House in London. "What seems to me to be important is the working-age populationand actually that is something we do know 18 years ahead of time and it is rather depressing news for Russia."
Russia's demographic decline was so steep in the 1990s that the country was losing more than one million people a year. The problem was driven by plummeting life expectancy ratesRussian men currently live on average only to age 63and high rates of emigration as economic conditions plummeted following the Soviet Union's collapse.
The drop off the demographic cliff spelled huge problems for Russia's creaky pension system, with some analysts speculating that the ratio of the country's working population to pensioners would reach 1-to-1 within two decades.
Russia's official population was 148.3 million in 1991, but by 2009, it had hit a low of 142.7 million. Since then the figure has stabilized somewhat, although experts say this is largely attributable to a high level of immigration of laborers from poorer ex-Soviet states, particularly those in Central Asia.
The problem grew so acute, that President Vladimir Putin has pushed for numerous government programs to help encourage Russians to have more children, proposing stipends for mothers who have more than two children, improved housing and educational prospects, and a more focused assault on high rates of male alcoholism.
Mr. Putin also suggested a new immigration policy to encourage Russians living abroad to return and talented foreign workers to move to the country to work. On Wednesday, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev signed a decree increasing quotas for migrant workers in certain retail areas.
Russia is not alone in facing a population crisis. Many European countries, including Germany, Italy, Spain and Denmark have all experienced declining fertility rates in recent years, leading to similar concerns about long-term economic impact.
Ivan Tchakarov, chief economist for Renaissance Capital in Moscow, said that government policies appear to have had some impact and that "doomsday prophesies" about Russia's demographic future haven't been supported by official statistics that show the gap between the country's birth and death rates steadily closing over the past decade.
"It has been driven by a combination of net migration and conscientious government policies to encourage births," Mr. Tchakarov said. "These doomsday prophesies about Russia's population decline may turn out to be ill-advised."
Russia Nears a Milestone - WSJ.com
Through the end of October, Russia had recorded 790 more births than deathsa minute advance, but one that could mark a potential turning point in a troubling demographic trend that has seen the country's population on the decline since the early 1990s.
"Cumulative natural growth was recorded from the start of the year for the first time in many years," Labor Minister Maxim Topilin said.So far, Russia's birth rate in 2012 has risen 7% rise on the year with an increase seen in 80 of the country's 83 regions. Meanwhile, Russia's death rate has fallen 1.5% in the same period, the ministry said. In all of 2011, Russia saw 132,000 more deaths than births, the state statistic service said.
The figures stand in contrast to predictions made by many demographic experts in recent yearsincluding the United Nations Population Divisionthat Russia faces a serious demographic crisis, with the potential of seeing its population fall by as much as 30% by 2050. But those who have kept a close eye on the situation warn that despite the signs of a turnaround, Russia faces a long road ahead.
"Demographic trends are like oil tankersyou cannot turn them around immediately," said James Nixey, a Russian policy expert at Chatham House in London. "What seems to me to be important is the working-age populationand actually that is something we do know 18 years ahead of time and it is rather depressing news for Russia."
Russia's demographic decline was so steep in the 1990s that the country was losing more than one million people a year. The problem was driven by plummeting life expectancy ratesRussian men currently live on average only to age 63and high rates of emigration as economic conditions plummeted following the Soviet Union's collapse.
The drop off the demographic cliff spelled huge problems for Russia's creaky pension system, with some analysts speculating that the ratio of the country's working population to pensioners would reach 1-to-1 within two decades.
Russia's official population was 148.3 million in 1991, but by 2009, it had hit a low of 142.7 million. Since then the figure has stabilized somewhat, although experts say this is largely attributable to a high level of immigration of laborers from poorer ex-Soviet states, particularly those in Central Asia.
The problem grew so acute, that President Vladimir Putin has pushed for numerous government programs to help encourage Russians to have more children, proposing stipends for mothers who have more than two children, improved housing and educational prospects, and a more focused assault on high rates of male alcoholism.
Mr. Putin also suggested a new immigration policy to encourage Russians living abroad to return and talented foreign workers to move to the country to work. On Wednesday, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev signed a decree increasing quotas for migrant workers in certain retail areas.
Russia is not alone in facing a population crisis. Many European countries, including Germany, Italy, Spain and Denmark have all experienced declining fertility rates in recent years, leading to similar concerns about long-term economic impact.
Ivan Tchakarov, chief economist for Renaissance Capital in Moscow, said that government policies appear to have had some impact and that "doomsday prophesies" about Russia's demographic future haven't been supported by official statistics that show the gap between the country's birth and death rates steadily closing over the past decade.
"It has been driven by a combination of net migration and conscientious government policies to encourage births," Mr. Tchakarov said. "These doomsday prophesies about Russia's population decline may turn out to be ill-advised."
Russia Nears a Milestone - WSJ.com