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Russia is preparing a new Major Offensive with 1million men into Ukraine from the North into Kiev from South-west Russia and Belarus territory

Some sources say 500k men while others say 1m men

Zelensky said the same thing 3 days ago they are preparing for a Russian offensive in Febuary or March
More meat for the sausage press:

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1 million men?

It’s not 1941 mate satellite would know the exact number and if it was 1 million US + NATO would have it all over the news
 
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After spending many hours on the dark web I’ve managed to obtain satellite images of Russian Troops on the outskirts of Ukraine:
 
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Well, considering they have problem to supply with 60,000 troop in Feb last year for the invasion to Kyiv, 1 Million men would be a disaster waiting to be happen, that is if they can find anything to equip these people with. I mean the last time they did mobilisation of the 300,000 men, they raided airsoft store and put their equipment in war.

Yes, the Russian Spring Offensive will happen, it's more like 150,000 strength, and that's already a lot to ask to pull this off. 1 million troop would probably just going to stuck there and not going anywhere.

Also, if they really do have 1 million waiting to launch an offensive in Ukraine in March, they would need to move them 6 months ago, moving 1 million men and materiel is not something you can do overnight, even with logistic capability of the west, 6 months is a tough ask, certainly not Russia after the 40 miles convoy. It took them 4 months to move the 200k troop in Feb for the invasion now. For example, 30kg gear per men per 3 days, (That's individual soldier load in general) 1 million men would mean 30,000,000 kg of gear just for them to fight 3 days, that's moving 30,000 tons of gear just for a 3 day operation, I will let you do the maths on how much it needed for a month or 2 months operation...

they only need 3 months to move into place and most of the movement started back in october
 
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Gosh you think reservists are anywhere near the same as their regular army? And look how badly their regular army did In Ukraine
 
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And do exactly what with 500k poorly armed and trained men?
more cannon fodder for himars?
The old soviet stuff is gradually being replaced by new western weapons in Ukraine meanwhile Russia is scrapping the barrel and massing ancient soviet stuff from Belarus and Iran.
The economy is suffering due to mass mobilization and fleeing of hundreds of thousands of men.
Russian tanks are sitting ducks to ATGMS and other modern IFVs that the west is sending.
 
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The difference is you need to bring supply into Ukraine if Russia want to defend the gain in Ukraine, you need to pipe troop to do that everytime, there is ALWAYS going to be a line of communication from the frontline in Ukraine back to Russia because Russian troop did not originated from Ukraine.
the supply must come into battlefield , its not important where is battlefield or your troops are local or not , do you think Ukraine troops are from Lohansk ?
I said back in June when everybody laugh at me When I said US is going to transfer HIMARS or M270 to Ukraine because exactly of this issue, for Russia, they will need to overcome the entire frontline they are facing to gain ground, for Ukraine, you don't even need to face their frontline to retake those position, all you need to do is to disrupt their rear. Case in point, Ukrainian took Kherson without even facing the Russian troop, you want to know how they did that? They did that by taking out the infrastructure in the rear and make it hard to supply the Russian troop in the front all the way from Russia.
its also the case about Ukraine if Russia manage to disrupt behind the lines , Ukrainian face the same problem Russia have right now .
That is the big different.
so there is no different at all , Ukraine supply line come from west of Ukraine to the east of Ukraine , Russia supply line come from west of Russia to east of Ukraine .
its not like usa meddling in middle east that had a 12000km long supply line . for both country the supply line is several hundred kilometer at most
 
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the supply must come into battlefield , its not important where is battlefield or your troops are local or not , do you think Ukraine troops are from Lohansk ?

It actually, because supply depends on geographical location, say your frontline is bakhmut, Russia cannot ring supply in from Popasna, or Sieverodoetsk you have to go back as far as at least Luhansk if not all the way back to Rostov. Which mean long supply line and more importantly PREDICTABLE supply line, which mean it is prone to attack. Because there are only a few road you can go from Luhansk to Bakhmut (actually only 1, P-66 Highway), All Ukrainian need to do is to position their long range artillery within range to intercept those road, couple with US intelligence who monitor where those column come from (US most likelyy have 24/7 intel on road traffic into and out of Russian control territories. And Ukraine can intercept those column.

On the other hand, in Ukrainian term, defending Bakhmut, they can draw supply from literally anywhere. It can either be from the North in Slovanisk or from the West in Pokrovsk, or even further, you cannot predict where that come from, which mean it is a lot harder to interdict.


its also the case about Ukraine if Russia manage to disrupt behind the lines , Ukrainian face the same problem Russia have right now .

The key word is "IF" that is why Russia stop making progress since HIMARS get into play, and that is why HIMARS is important. That's because the present of HIMARS push Russian out of effective artillery range on those target. Because if they position within 20-30km (max range of Russian artillery) they now will either be noticed by Ukrainian drone and attacked or COUNTBAT by Ukrainian rocket artillery station further away when you fire your artillery.

If you go back on the footage, before HIMARS introduced to Ukrainian battlefield, there are sporadic report on Russian attacking Ukrainian arms depot and storage facilities (remember the missile attack on a mall where Russia say they were used to store weapon and munition?) When is the last published footage of Russian strike on those target you saw? More or less the strike footage you saw is Russian launching drone and attack energy structure these day.

so there is no different at all , Ukraine supply line come from west of Ukraine to the east of Ukraine , Russia supply line come from west of Russia to east of Ukraine .

I am not talking about weapon or munition, I am talking about Food, Water and Fuel, Ukrainian don't need the west to supply them food, water and fuel (err,, may be fuel, I don't know) Russian Troop in Kherson retreated not because they ran out of ammunition or manpower, they retreated because essential cannot be brough forward into Kherson because both Antonovsky Bridge and Kerch Bridge was damaged. They cannot sustain the winter if they stay put there, that's why they withdrew.

On the other hand, the length of supply line only come into play if your supply chain is interrupted, because it takes times to fix that line because it is longer, but it wouldn't matter much if they can remain uninterrupted, because you will keep on your supply schedule everyday, not matter if you start 300km away or 3000 km away.


its not like usa meddling in middle east that had a 12000km long supply line . for both country the supply line is several hundred kilometer at most

Actually, it did, at least at the invasion phase, which is what Russia still are at the moment, at the invasion phase, everything US military use come from either the US to Kuwait to the front, or Germnay to Kuwait to the front. I personal know this because the fact that I was being used as infantry officer instead of a cav officer (which is my MOS at that point) is due to supply issue, my Bradley wasn't in Iraq when I was in Iraq.

Post invasion phase, the government of Iraq support the US, then everything can be produced or found locally, again, Russia is NOT at that phase yet.
 
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they only need 3 months to move into place and most of the movement started back in October
Well, it takes 4 months to move 200,000 soldier to start the Feb 24 war, US issue warning to Ukraine back in October about Russia troop buildup, and you are talking about 1 million men....I can already imagine the chaos

This article talks about Russian build up in the past month, it was written on 27 November 2021, that mean that Russian start build up in October


And then you are talking about back then it was already mobilised soldier, no further training, equipment and anything related to mobilisation is needed, these people are on paper, ready to go. You are talking about moving 1 million civilians into military and pump them in battlefield, you need to train them and equip them with basic essential, and those stuff take time, and 8 weeks (or 2 months) I am giving is extremely generous, because I don't think even the US can train that amount of men and equip them in 2 months, you don't just push them from the border and hand them a rifle and push these people into a fight, well, you can do that, but in modern war, this is more or less equate to suicide.
 
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Russia will lose because there is no mandate in Russia for able Russian men to fight the war while Zelensky has mandated that no Ukrainian men can leave the country and are mandated to fight the war against Russian if they like to fight or not.
Ukraine has more soldiers as it is mandated.
the correct term is that its a stalemate. neither side is making any advances due to winter and shortages.
 
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Ukraine has enough men, and weapons. Ukraine has and had a large military complex as well, they develop artillery, planes, etc. even before 2014. That has been pumping munitions and weapons since Feb 2022, in addition to the western support.
 
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msn and businessinsider both say Ukrainian Military Intelligence Service is warning of a major Russian mobilization/offensive.


-------

Said, European arms makers need to be on full shift making weapons for the next 4 years. ... based on ample evidence of Russia threat.

Got 7 gales of stupid laughter.


I destroyed the "Russia is running out of tanks" with evidence. I destroyed the "EU (xFr) does not need nukes" vomit. I destroyed the "Russia is not a threat to EU". I destroyed the "EU does not need more weapons vs 'weak' Russia" argument. I destroyed the "be dependent on Russia Republicans to defend Europe from Russia" vomit.

Europe is at war and needs to run their arms industry 24/7. In arms Europe needs to defend from Russia.


Ukraine is the defense of Europe, from planned Russian further attacks.
 
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It actually, because supply depends on geographical location, say your frontline is bakhmut, Russia cannot ring supply in from Popasna, or Sieverodoetsk you have to go back as far as at least Luhansk if not all the way back to Rostov. Which mean long supply line and more importantly PREDICTABLE supply line, which mean it is prone to attack. Because there are only a few road you can go from Luhansk to Bakhmut (actually only 1, P-66 Highway), All Ukrainian need to do is to position their long range artillery within range to intercept those road, couple with US intelligence who monitor where those column come from (US most likelyy have 24/7 intel on road traffic into and out of Russian control territories. And Ukraine can intercept those column.

On the other hand, in Ukrainian term, defending Bakhmut, they can draw supply from literally anywhere. It can either be from the North in Slovanisk or from the West in Pokrovsk, or even further, you cannot predict where that come from, which mean it is a lot harder to interdict.




The key word is "IF" that is why Russia stop making progress since HIMARS get into play, and that is why HIMARS is important. That's because the present of HIMARS push Russian out of effective artillery range on those target. Because if they position within 20-30km (max range of Russian artillery) they now will either be noticed by Ukrainian drone and attacked or COUNTBAT by Ukrainian rocket artillery station further away when you fire your artillery.

If you go back on the footage, before HIMARS introduced to Ukrainian battlefield, there are sporadic report on Russian attacking Ukrainian arms depot and storage facilities (remember the missile attack on a mall where Russia say they were used to store weapon and munition?) When is the last published footage of Russian strike on those target you saw? More or less the strike footage you saw is Russian launching drone and attack energy structure these day.



I am not talking about weapon or munition, I am talking about Food, Water and Fuel, Ukrainian don't need the west to supply them food, water and fuel (err,, may be fuel, I don't know) Russian Troop in Kherson retreated not because they ran out of ammunition or manpower, they retreated because essential cannot be brough forward into Kherson because both Antonovsky Bridge and Kerch Bridge was damaged. They cannot sustain the winter if they stay put there, that's why they withdrew.

On the other hand, the length of supply line only come into play if your supply chain is interrupted, because it takes times to fix that line because it is longer, but it wouldn't matter much if they can remain uninterrupted, because you will keep on your supply schedule everyday, not matter if you start 300km away or 3000 km away.




Actually, it did, at least at the invasion phase, which is what Russia still are at the moment, at the invasion phase, everything US military use come from either the US to Kuwait to the front, or Germnay to Kuwait to the front. I personal know this because the fact that I was being used as infantry officer instead of a cav officer (which is my MOS at that point) is due to supply issue, my Bradley wasn't in Iraq when I was in Iraq.

Post invasion phase, the government of Iraq support the US, then everything can be produced or found locally, again, Russia is NOT at that phase yet.
so it all come down to HIMARS, not being offensive or defensive
 
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so it all come down to HIMARS, not being offensive or defensive
What come down to HIMARS?

This is about offensive logistic and defensive logistic, you have a longer more predictable and more demanding logistic when you are attacking, and you have a more robust, shorter logistic when you are defending. This is the basic principle for battlefield logistic since maybe Roman time.
 
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