Russia-India Marching Ahead

[TimeTraveller]

As the United States and Europe increase their sanctions on Russia, unsurprisingly Russia is moving closer to one of its long term allies: India. America and Europe keep pressuring Russia to change its policy with respect to its support of separatists in Eastern Ukraine, the unintended consequence is America is pushing India into closer relations with Russia.

Russia is the second largest arms exporter in the world, and half of Russian's arms production goes to China and India. When sanctions were announced on Russian military equipment the Indian government rejected them. While the 30 year multi billion dollar Russian oil pipeline deal with China has been widely discussed; the potential deal brewing between Russia and India could be as important as that deal. India is estimated to likely be the world's largest oil importer by 2020. Russian Ambassador to India, Alexander Kadakin expressed hope that the "biggest ever energy project in history (the pipeline) ... would enhance India's energy security." The closeness of the ties between Russia and India were underlined when Prime Minister Modi stated. "...if you ask anyone among the more than one billion people living in India who is our country's greatest friend, every person, every child knows that it is Russia."

Some may find the close relationship between the world's largest democracy and Russia surprising. But Russia has long recognized the benefits of being a friend to a country of one billion people. Not only does Russia have a business partner who will be a consumer of its energy and military products, but India also is a political friend in times like these, when the United States is trying to gather world support to influence Russian behavior.

In response to recent American and European Union sanctions Russia has banned imports for one year of fruit, vegetables, milk, and diary products from the EU countries and America. India will gladly fill the vacuum created by this sanction. The irony of the worlds largest Democracy helping Russia during these times underscores the importance of Russia and India's ties. More significantly Russia and India are discussing the replacement of the dollar and the euro with the rupee and ruble for trade between the two countries. If this happens it will be a sign to Russian allies that that there is a way around western sanctions. Russia has done this with China already and should they succeed with India; Russia will be less affected by the increased sanctions. And the role of the dollar as the world's currency will be reduced.

At the end of the day, if western sanctions serve to increase ties between Russia and India, as well as Russia and China, it may be that the sanctions have backfired and strengthen rather than hurt Russia's standing in the world. While Russia has grown increasingly close with China, India distrusts China due to a long festering border disagreement. However, China has recently attempted to resolve these differences because, like Russia, it believes that a genuine Asian bloc requires the support of India, and an end to their relatively cold relations. China made the first move in warming relations by inviting India to participate in the APEC summit in Beijing, this November, one-upping the United States. Russia and China have recently indicated that they want India to play a more significant role and become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Russia has long advocated this position and it is likely that it has persuaded China to back greater Indian involvement with the SCO. India will undoubtedly seek and receive Russian support to persuade China to back its India's bid for a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council. A seat that will, if brokered by Russia, only serve to diminish western influence in the United Nations.

The consequences of a deeper alliance with India serve to strengthen Russia's resistance to sanctions.


Source:Russia-India Marching Ahead | Elena Ulansky

 

[Bobby]

good............................

 

[Sergi]

Wishful thinking and far stretch form realities
1. China will never support India in UNSC till border dispute is solved on their terms and India will never accept Chinese terms.
2. To break the dollar monopoly you need to take Europe with you. So better option is accept Euro as common currency.
3. India will try to remain neutral as much as possible as it need both East and West.
4. China not only aiming to take down US but also to crown itself in that place.
5. US grip on EU is stronger till today. If it remains so in future there isn't anything that will change.
6. Indian and Chinese markets are big enough for Russia but still it will miss the high gain market.

 

[SrNair]

Wishful thinking and far stretch form realities
1. China will never support India in UNSC till border dispute is solved on their terms and India will never accept Chinese terms.
2. To break the dollar monopoly you need to take Europe with you. So better option is accept Euro as common currency.
3. India will try to remain neutral as much as possible as it need both East and West.
4. China not only aiming to take down US but also to crown itself in that place.
5. US grip on EU is stronger till today. If it remains so in future there isn't anything that will change.
6. Indian and Chinese markets are big enough for Russia but still it will miss the high gain market.

China supported India for UNSC seat.
But for us national interest is our priority .And Russia is still remain as our national priority .Due to the deep links between the two nation.

 

[jaiind]

Both India and Russia are being old allies since decades,They move together to their mutual needs and benefits

 

[sancho]

Both India and Russia are being old allies since decades,They move together to their mutual needs and benefits

True, but this is also a chance for us to gain more out of the relationship, since they are in need. We must take this as an advantage for our interests too.

 

[Abingdonboy]

India should improve relations across the board with all nations that have something useful to offer India. Russia is no longer unique in that sense to India and I actually wouldn't mind if India allowed ties with Russia to cool off right now given how crazy and irresponsible Russia has been acting lately- as long as this doesn't negatively effect Indian interests particularly in defence.

 

[Omega007]

India should improve relations across the board with all nations that have something useful to offer India. Russia is no longer unique in that sense to India and I actually wouldn't mind if India allowed ties with Russia to cool off right now given how crazy and irresponsible Russia has been acting lately- as long as this doesn't negatively effect Indian interests particularly in defence.

Nah,that won't be necessary or even serve our interests.Best course of action would be to follow what Mr @sancho said.

 

[Sam.]

we should never join SCO until they changed the bloc name as it is purely china centric.

Shanghai Cooperation Organization doesn't look like Asian union to me but more like Chinese pawns.

 

[anyrandom]

India to shouldn't see Russia with western lenses. What Russia does in Ukraine is an interplay of several issues. We should not see it simply as domination. India also does some questionable things in Kashmir but we know it is justified which the westerners and pkastinis don't understand. Similary Russia has full right to protect its interests.

 

[Sahasranama]

True, but this is also a chance for us to gain more out of the relationship, since they are in need. We must take this as an advantage for our interests too.

LOL....seriously ?

...they are in need and we are not ? What sort of Russian "need" do we satisfy ?

we should never join SCO until they changed the bloc name as it is purely china centric.
Shanghai Cooperation Organization doesn't look like Asian union to me but more like Chinese pawns.

Of all the reasons for not joining the org. this one must surely be the strangest ............. because we din't like the name.

 

[Sam.]

LOL....seriously ?

...they are in need and we are not ? What sort of Russian "need" do we satisfy ?



Of all the reasons for not joining the org. this one must surely be the strangest ............. because we din't like the name.

It's not about liking the name but what it represent is matter. ( hope you understand now otherwise i have no intention explaining)

 

[Sahasranama]

It's not about liking the name but what it represent is matter. ( hope you understand now otherwise i have no intention explaining)

What it represents another instance of nations building an organization that is designed to make the world multi polar. That is what it represents.

 

[Tshering22]

Wishful thinking and far stretch form realities
1. China will never support India in UNSC till border dispute is solved on their terms and India will never accept Chinese terms.

Very true.

Unless and until both countries can sit down and understand the global realities to address the issues mutually, it won't change any equation no matter what the trade equation is.

2. To break the dollar monopoly you need to take Europe with you. So better option is accept Euro as common currency.

European Union's strongest economy, aka Germany, is close to US. I may be putting this politely but without US nod, Germans won't even move an inch forward or backward. The US is powerful enough to make Europeans bow down financially and thus weaken any third party stand. Remember Iran's attempts at using Euros?

The best alternative is to increase manufacturing, reduce taxation in manufacturing and try to prop INR as a trading currency.

3. India will try to remain neutral as much as possible as it need both East and West.

Yup.

Looking at Pakistan, we have learnt well; never take sides in other people's fights.

4. China not only aiming to take down US but also to crown itself in that place.

It requires more than military and economic muscle to achieve that.

 

[sancho]

India should improve relations across the board with all nations that have something useful to offer India. Russia is no longer unique in that sense to India and I actually wouldn't mind if India allowed ties with Russia to cool off right now given how crazy and irresponsible Russia has been acting lately- as long as this doesn't negatively effect Indian interests particularly in defence.

You are highly mistaken buddy. Name a single other nation that can provide us with the same array of arms and techs for air force, navy and army, in joint developments?
There is none! The Israelis covers radar, avionics or weapons, or armored vehicles mainly, but neither can they provide us aircrafts, naval vessels. The French sadly showed us, that even the selection of Rafale is not enough for them to look forward to joint developments, the US are not even close to be seriously considered for licence production, so who is left at that level?

Russia is still the best option for arms and techs for us, but we have to tilled the game more in our favour! We lover their fighters and radars, or that they share a good amount of techs and now even offer joint ownership and development shares. The problem is, as long as we can't contribute industrially to the joint development, our contribution is too limited and they will remain on the upper side on each joint development. That's why we hardly can make any major decisions in MTA or FGFA (IAF would had been happy if both would had been a bit smaller, but the Russians insisted on bigger sizes). So when we can't contribute much because of our lack of capability so far, we have to use such weakpoints of the Russians in our favour, to serve our interests!
The Russians actually did the same too, by making themselfs less dependent on us, by forming industial partnerships with Europeans and open their own market for European arms and techs. An excellent move back then, but US now have countered it with pushing NATO against Russia again and now they are in need for older and more reliable partners. We still stand at their side no matter what, but they also have to unstand that they have to give us more in return for our funds and more importantly for our reliability!
Not using their current weakness, would be a huge waste and it doesn't need to be a cheap move, just a reminder that we are the most reliable partner that Russia has and that it is in their interest to provide us with what we want.

LOL....seriously ?

...they are in need and we are not ? What sort of Russian "need" do we satisfy ?

- the biggest market for their defence products
- one potentially big market for their civil aircraft devision (one reason why they offer us to jointly produce the regional airliner they have developed)
- the only reliable country that they can jointly develop arms and techs with
- the most reliable political partner that Russia has
- one of the biggest markets for Russian energy supply

Just to name a few, Russia is not the Soviet Union and needs partners, that's why they tried to open up in the last few years with a forward policy towards Europe, similar to our look East policy. But at the end of the day, India remains to be the best choice for them on so many levels!