Russia-China warmth makes Delhi walk the tightrope on Ukraine

[FOOLS_NIGHTMARE]

Officials here said that with key strategic partners on both sides, any hasty moves may shrink the already tight diplomatic space Delhi has.​

On January 19, US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman called up Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla and they discussed “Russia’s concerning military build-up on Ukraine’s borders”. However, Delhi is yet to issue an official statement on the matter, choosing to closely monitor the developments as of now.

Officials here said that with key strategic partners on both sides, any hasty moves may shrink the already tight diplomatic space Delhi has.
So while there is concern about Russia’s “muscle-flexing” and external intervention in national matters, New Delhi does not want to jeopardise its equation with Moscow.

Must Read |Why Ukraine matters to Russia
Almost 60 per cent of India’s military supplies are Russian-manufactured, a significant factor when Indian and Chinese troops continue to be in a stand-off on the eastern border.
At the same time, the US and Europe, which are pushing back against Russia over Ukraine, are both important partners from India’s strategic calculus. Many US platforms have been used for reconnaissance and surveillance along the India-China border. Winter clothing for 50,000 troops has been sourced from these Western strategic partners.
India is also conscious that the hostility between the West and Russia, with talks of sanctions being considered, is likely to push Moscow in the direction of Beijing, hence strengthening the Chinese. Also, how Moscow’s negotiations draw a wedge between US and its European allies is also being watched carefully here.

Another concern for Delhi is the Indian community in Ukraine, comprising mostly students in medical colleges. The Indian Embassy in capital Kyiv has stated collating information on the students, as part of preparations for any hostilities.
As per government estimates, 18,000 Indian students were in Ukraine in 2020, but the numbers may have dipped since due to Covid lockdowns and classes moving at many places online.
Sources in the strategic establishment recall that when Russia had annexed Crimea in early 2014, and the West had lined up against President Vladimir Putin, India had expressed “concern” but also qualified it by talking of “legitimate Russian interests”. The view was articulated at the time, under the UPA government, by then NSA Shiv Shankar Menon.
Explained |What can the US, its allies do to stop Russia from potentially invading Ukraine?
In fact, Putin had thanked India for taking a “restrained and objective” stand on the Ukraine situation, and called up Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to express his gratitude.
Since 2014, India’s strategic embrace with the Americans and Europeans has tightened, but its ties with Moscow have not slackened either.

Keeping these factors in mind, sources said, India won’t be inclined to rush in with any condemnatory statement against Russia, as is being done by the Western powers.

However, if it has to take a call, when, say, the matter comes up in the UN Security Council or other such global platform, the government is likely to advocate “peaceful negotiations”, “restraint” and “abjuring of violence” as part of formulaic statements. For now, Delhi is hoping that the situation is defused by negotiators on both sides.

Russia-China warmth makes Delhi walk the tightrope on Ukraine

🔴 Officials here said that with key strategic partners on both sides, any hasty moves may shrink the already tight diplomatic space Delhi has.

indianexpress.com

 

[SabzShaheen]

The article title devised by this cancerous outlet implies India would dare take a stance on the Ukrainian crisis were it not for the established bonhomie between China and Russia. As if India would jeopardise its precarious balancing act between it’s ties with the West and Russia regardless of Sino influence.

India as a regional power recognises that this is beyond her scope.

For Pakistan, there could be a conundrum around access to upgraded Soviet technology if Ukraine is invaded. Would a Russian puppet state supply arms to India’s nemesis?

 

[Shehryar Ashraf]

For Pakistan, there could be a conundrum around access to upgraded Soviet technology if Ukraine is invaded. Would a Russian puppet state supply arms to India’s nemesis?

I do not see a conundrum. Russia will sell weapons to anyone who can purchase them, especially with them coming under sanctions from the West. The Russian Indian relation is not one of alliance, otherwise you would see the Indians coming out in Phull support for the Russian position on Ukraine. The relation is akin to a drug dealer and his largest customer, no more no less.

Besides that Russia increasing becomes relegated to a junior partner dependent on access to Chinese markets and Chinese Influence. Our good relations with The Chinese could be used to nudge them into agreeing to sell arms.

 

[SabzShaheen]

I do not see a conundrum. Russia will sell weapons to anyone who can purchase them, especially with them coming under sanctions from the West. The Russian Indian relation is not one of alliance, otherwise you would see the Indians coming out in Phull support for the Russian position on Ukraine. The relation is akin to a drug dealer and his largest customer, no more no less.

Besides that Russia increasing becomes relegated to a junior partner dependent on access to Chinese markets and Chinese Influence. Our good relations with The Chinese could be used to nudge them into agreeing to sell arms.

Good points, although within you’ll find the answer to my original question. Russia will not sell major arms on the level of T-80UDs to Pakistan to upset its biggest customer, India.

Indian and Russian interests continue to diverge but both states are in no hurry to increase the rate of deterioration

 

[Shehryar Ashraf]

Good points, although within you’ll find the answer to my original question. Russia will not sell major arms on the level of T-80UDs to Pakistan to upset its biggest customer, India.

Indian and Russian interests continue to diverge but both states are in no hurry to increase the rate of deterioration

provide proof that Russia will not sell major arms on the level of T-80UDs to Pakistan.

edit: The Russians and the Turks are not on good relations, They supported different factions in Libya, the Turks shot down a Russian fighter jet, and are a NATO member. and Yet the Russians were willing to not only sell them S400 air defense system, but also facilitate a technology transfer. I fail to see why they would not be willing to sell weapons to Pakistan, unless Pakistan either cannot afford the cost, or do not wish to purchase Russian weapons for some reason like CAATSA.

Also Indians will buy Russian Weapons regardless. It is extremely expensive to switch military suppliers. to replace 85% of your stocks is not something that can be done overnight, it would take decades. especially with covid related economic downturns.

 

[pc_alt]

provide proof that Russia will not sell major arms on the level of T-80UDs to Pakistan.

Also Indians will buy Russian Weapons regardless. It is extremely expensive to switch military suppliers. to replace 85% of your stocks is not something that can be done overnight, it would take decades. especially with covid related economic downturns.

I think Russia would keep a 'Pakistan' card to influence India to keep buying big-ticket defense items. If India under US pressure starts to significantly curtail Russian arms purchases, then Russia would start to sell major (but still not strategic) arms to Pakistan.