Russia blocks RD-93 to Pakistan?

[araz]

Salam guys.
Whatever anybody says, it just does not make sense to me that such a big project has been embarked on by two countries without one country having any assurance about the engine, think about it!!! Even a lay person like me will tell you they would not have come this far without an alternate engine, especially since the JF17 was designed with 3-4 engines in mind. The second thing of interest is PAF is very quiet about this whole issue. I think this is just a bit of gamesmanship and the deal is comfortably in the bag. Even with WS13, I think it is not more than a year away from production. I think we will see the Thunder fly on 23 March.Have some faith fellas!!Insha Allah.
WaSalam
Araz

 

[Bull]

The Chinese never said they'd come up with it by March. At the very least it should take about 1 to 2 years. It's not panic, but an obvious blow, if all this is true. There has been no confirmation by the Russians, Chinese or the Pakistanis other than that press conference by a guy who was obviously sent to appease Indians.

So you still feel you will get a hand on to the RD-93 ?

How much is deal worth and if the deal goes thru how many engines can they supply before the WS-13 is developed.

 

[Awesome]

I think there was an order for 100.

Also what are the chances Russia might export the RD-93 through the back channel under the garb of WS-13? IMO the WS-13 should be about 2 years away at least. If it comes about anytime sooner, then we can float the possibility of it actually just being the RD-93.

I think the Russians are testing the Indian waters. 2 months to go and we'll know for sure.

 

[Bull]

I think there was an order for 100. .

100 thats it. Is that a big deal for the russians, that they would risk relationship wuth Indian. They have already signed a deal double that size for the RD-33.

The important question is would China want to push Russia to limits for the sake of Pakistan?

As far as China is concerned they can wait for another 2 years for it to get inducted as proof of its capablities and to convince third parties about the same. But PAF cant.

 

[Keysersoze]

100 thats it. Is that a big deal for the russians, that they would risk relationship wuth Indian. They have already signed a deal double that size for the RD-33.

The important question is would China want to push Russia to limits for the sake of Pakistan?

As far as China is concerned they can wait for another 2 years for it to get inducted as proof of its capablities and to convince third parties about the same. But PAF cant.

It has been repeated several times but to constantly wave the India/Russia relationship around has no validity here...... China does more business with Russia. China is not just looking after Pakistan, but looking after all it's potential sales of the JF-17 to other nations looking to replace J-7's. Also Russia can expand it's market (by looking at other buyers for their equipment) and not worry about having other deals affected by blackmail.

 

[Bull]

It has been repeated several times but to constantly wave the India/Russia relationship around has no validity here...... China does more business with Russia. China is not just looking after Pakistan, but looking after all it's potential sales of the JF-17 to other nations looking to replace J-7's. Also Russia can expand it's market (by looking at other buyers for their equipment) and not worry about having other deals affected by blackmail.

The point im making is that its panic for PAF but not for China. China can wait for another 2 years when it has to WS-13 ready and sell it off to its propective buyers with a sanction proof engine. Well in fcat if there is a buyer emerging from elsewhere Russians would be happy to supply the RD 93 for them.

China wont test Russia's sensitivity, there is no need for them to do that. 100engines isnt worth that risk.

 

[Contrarian]

It has been repeated several times but to constantly wave the India/Russia relationship around has no validity here...... China does more business with Russia. China is not just looking after Pakistan, but looking after all it's potential sales of the JF-17 to other nations looking to replace J-7's. Also Russia can expand it's market (by looking at other buyers for their equipment) and not worry about having other deals affected by blackmail.

Russia cannot expand their market mate. When saying market, it essentially means Pakistan. Just Pakistan. If JF-17 has to be exported to other countries , then most likely the other countries will get RD-33 without any hiccups. So if China intends to export lots of these planes, then they will not have major problems. The Chinese know the Indian position well, they cannot make Russia change the stand they have taken for over 4 decades. India is not small market. They cannot lose India. Apart from that, even though everything is based on commerce now, there is a certain aspect of comfortablility and closeness between Russia and India. You could quite easily gather that during Putin's visit.

Pakistan's a not a huge source of revenue, they will never even think about losing India's business so that they can sell to Pakistan. India and China have been buying from Russia for a while now, neither can China put undue pressure on Russia to sell to Pakistan, neither can India make Russia deny the engine to China. But they wont be re-exported to Pakistan. Rest any country will do.

 

[Keysersoze]

The point im making is that its panic for PAF but not for China. China can wait for another 2 years when it has to WS-13 ready and sell it off to its propective buyers with a sanction proof engine. Well in fcat if there is a buyer emerging from elsewhere Russians would be happy to supply the RD 93 for them.

China wont test Russia's sensitivity, there is no need for them to do that. 100engines isnt worth that risk.

Yes but look at the countries that were looking at the plane......
most of them were courted by Pak not China.
If they see China not look after a major partner how do you think they will feel?
Plus the Chinese will not like being held to ransom by the Russians.
What will Russia do if the engines are exported? Clamp sanctions on China? Lose 2 billion in military exports alone. 20 billion in other business?
Worst case scenario is that Pak gets an advance on the J-10 until the WS-13 is ready.
If Iran can get F-14 parts, then I think a engine for Pak should not be a major drama.

 

[Contrarian]

1.Yes but look at the countries that were looking at the plane......
most of them were courted by Pak not China.
If they see China not look after a major partner how do you think they will feel?
Plus the Chinese will not like being held to ransom by the Russians.


2.What will Russia do if the engines are exported? Clamp sanctions on China? Lose 2 billion in military exports alone. 20 billion in other business?
Worst case scenario is that Pak gets an advance on the J-10 until the WS-13 is ready.
If Iran can get F-14 parts, then I think a engine for Pak should not be a major drama.

1.Russia is not holding China to ransom. Russia never agreed in the begning to supply engines to Pakistan. It was bad planning on Chinese part. They suddenly wanted Russia to sell engines to Pakistan, that cannot happen.

2. No, they will continue to sell weapons etc, but drag China to international court over RD-33 and make China pay a HUGE penalty. If the Chinese would be willing, then there should not be a problem.

 

[Bull]

Yes but look at the countries that were looking at the plane......
most of them were courted by Pak not China.
If they see China not look after a major partner how do you think they will feel?.

I think they will understand the issue and ask for a WS-13 powered JF-17,rather than a unreliable RD-93.

Plus the Chinese will not like being held to ransom by the Russians.
What will Russia do if the engines are exported? Clamp sanctions on China? Lose 2 billion in military exports alone. 20 billion in other business?.

Thats not the way either of them wants things to happen.

Nobody is going to hold anybody for ransom. All the three parties understand they all stand on feeble ground and needs each other. Pakistan being the fourth party who is the souce of contention.

China will talk Pakistan into a delivery schedule of JF-17 probably in 2009/2010 and speed up J-10 (as you said).

If Iran can get F-14 parts, then I think a engine for Pak should not be a major drama.

ok guess it happens what about the spare parts, would PAF be happy flying RD-93 powered planes. Do they have a plan to later change all RD-93 powered ones to WS-13 , when its ready ?

 

[Keysersoze]

快讯：第一批两架废材将于3月10日交付小巴空军！

将参加3月23日巴基斯坦国庆节阅兵式。。。
着灰色涂装，取消鸡头空速管。。。


Ok. I don't know Chinese but this apparently claims that the first two will be handed over for the 10th of March.

(I nicked it from another forum )

 

[Bull]

快讯：第一批两架废材将于3月10日交付小巴空军！

将参加3月23日巴基斯坦国庆节阅兵式。。。
着灰色涂装，取消鸡头空速管。。。


Ok. I don't know Chinese but this apparently claims that the first two will be handed over for the 10th of March.

(I nicked it from another forum )

was this info prior to this drama or after that.

 

[Awesome]

100 have already been bought, the contract allows 400 more. 500 engines not worth it? Russia would have to consider what blocking the sale of 500 engines to China would mean. China intends to mostly supply this to Pakistan. Remember the Chinese said a few weeks ago that they would secure the deal.

 

[Contrarian]

No point talking bout it now. Lets wait and see. March 23 was the scheduled right?

 

[Neo]

So the panic setting in, finally.

Everybody was so confident that things will happen so easily and you can take delivery. Russia wont give a chance to India to point figures..

No, on the contrary we're quite calm. It's not the first time we're facing a media stunt of such magnitude.
Inshallah, the JF-17 will fly on March 23rd, just wait and see.