Ok guys lets forget about IP and concentrate on Shale gas and TAPI
beggars cannot be choosers.
TAPI also has Russian involvement in the last stages as they've significant expertise in pipeline laying. It is essential that most CAR related energy supply. There's nothing beggar about it. Maybe they don't see the right cost-benefit analysis behind this.
Stupid Pakistani government.
Why're you blaming your government? Sometime back, both you and Russians had expressed interest in exploring energy trade in the region together. Now explore is a pretty generic word that doesn't confirm much. This was upto the involved officials who have to have the maturity to accept.
1st mistake: On which bases they claimed that they are ready to invest when they didnt get any solid document or green signal from Kremlin?
MoUs usually ensure the exploratory part more than any serious commitment. It is more like "we will be interested to check whether this is viable or not between our countries". It doesn't guarantee anything. There are many projects that are globally canceled due to last minute cancelations.
2nd mistake: Pakistani officials thought that its US or UK where they used to go. Who will learn them that this Russia where Indian lobby stronger than they imagine and they could put pressure to turn their thinking against Pakistan.
Please read carefully. This has more to do with US pressure than anything remotely related to us. Unlike your vertical-relationship with USA since cold war, ours has been relatively on the same plane whereby Russia never meddled in our affairs and we respect their decisions. The Duma doesn't have any Indian origin members there to have a special lobby. If you mean to say pro-India politicians, most of the Kremlin would simply suggest that we get involved in the project.
We are involved in TAPI already which is both US and Russian clearance. Turkmenistan might be US-friendly but it still cannot avoid Russian influence. Any project that involves us and the Russians would, considering the current geography, involve you or Iran.
Moreover it is important to note that Russian government will not simply go against US pressure unless they will not get guaranty securing their interests in region through Pakistan and investment security. Russian government ever complained about instability of political situation in Pakistan as it effects on international agreements with change of government. Pakistan approved itself a risky investment zone.
BINGO! You're 100% on the mark. The main things Russians and even your friends the Chinese want is:
- Extermination of Taliban-type elements and end of your support to these elements.
- Guaranteed safety to trading products or energy supply channels.
- Guaranteed assurance that the investments they make in your country would give them strong ROIs based on feasibility studies that they might have or are conducting.
See, economics is a very serious thing. It may look picture perfect on paper but a lot of factors totally unrelated to it also suddenly become relevant in your nation's case. Russians invested in our infrastructure and industry in 60s because they saw a massive ROI and it got them that. Today, the goodwill of their investments is paying them big dividends in the form of multibillion import orders of finished steel from Russia (especially the special steel classes) while common steel is either got from Japan or some varieties made in-house.
The same logic applies to pipelines. Think about it; if they invested that sum and some loony Talibunny blew it up. Billions of dollars worth of oil or gas would get wasted. It would then escalate to potential disasters to the environment, the clean up costs, the political cost and the security costs. So?
There are lot of factors may involved while considering Pakistans proposal, security situation is one of them. Meanwhile they are looking in broad perspectives of their business in Pakistan and we can offer them participating and investing in more projects.
And what investment environment do you propose when there is no security of those investments in either tangible or intangible form?
I can relate to this because other states in my region face the same issue of internal problems. My region is super rich in resources and technically if there were no wannabe-ruler tiny bandit (terrorist) groups trying to attempt rule by the gun, my region's states would be far ahead of rest of Indian states.
Security for industries is a big big cost element that any country looks at.
There should be proper backup in Moscow from embassy of Pakistan (Which is doing nothing except stamping visas).In my point of view Prime Minister Gilani had to meet with counterpart in Moscow rather than sending their beauty queen.
No investment security= no investment. Cold and hard logic of businessmen. Put yourself in Kremlin's position and see. If you're a businessman, you will understand what I am saying without taking it otherwise.
I have said so many times and will say again,
India should finance the project, this will be best confidence building measure between India and Pakistan.
Not possible without a guaranteed non-interference from rogue elements in the state. This is where pragmatism trumps emotional drivel. Business has no emotions. It seeks guarantees and return on investments. We have other alternatives rather than such an unpredictable investments that have both a political, regional and militaristic angle to it.
If south asia has to develop, India should take the lead being a bigger nation.
We are not the Thaekedaars of South Asia. Our national territory, national interests and the interest of our closest friends is of primary concern. You need to snap out of it, bhai.
But it is sad statement for Pakistan, beloved friend China and future friend Russia both backing out.
No security = no business possible. Why do you think, for example, my region's states are not like Switzerland or Austria despite massive resource wealth?
Yes Sir. If Indian wants to go under sanctions.
We've outgrown the "sanctions" stage. Sanctioning us would mean sanctioning its own business industries now. That era is over.
Indians are under tremendous pressure not to buy oil from Iran and give gold in return.
We have reduced our supplies, not stopped them. Not even all the P5 can make us change our decisions together. Forget one single country or a group of them. If our policy doesn't hurt another friend's security, it is not military in nature, then we will do what is good for us.
Hint: US buys massive amounts of Venezuelan oil despite being its worst enemy in the region.
This missile thingy fired few days ago was not aimed at China. Indians can roast China with other missiles.
Well you're kind of right. But that would come at the price of reducing our payload. Agni-III can easily reach most relevant parts of your friend easily but with a reduced payload. Agni-V saves us that trouble.
The test was India's protest cry against the US/NATO.
Even if it was like your new buddies say as 8,000 Km and that our government is lying, it still doesn't reach US and doesn't need to as we have zero problems with US.
Europe doesn't interest us because:
- They are devoid of any resources
- They are not hostile to us
- They are our business partners and we don't attack business partners.
So I highly suggest Indians not touching the Iranian hot potato.
You forget who our strategic guru has been.
. We were born with expertise in geo-strategy, mate.
And the very same to you as well.
