Rush Doshi: Head of China policy at NSC

[crankthatskunk]

China and Pakistan have mutual interests with respect to India. But Pakistan does not want America helping India.

What assistance from China stolen by political thieves ? It is more like your elite scheming with Chinese companies/Chinese government to dump
inflated CPEC deals on the Pakistani public. Chinese are active participants in the whole scheme.

No Chinese projects had been looked in to until now. Because of pressure of Chinese displeasure. When they do , you will find many PMLN leaders had their fingers in the pie. Especially the Aristotle.

 

[nahtanbob]

No Chinese projects had been looked in to until now. Because of pressure of Chinese displeasure. When they do , you will find many PMLN leaders had their fingers in the pie. Especially the Aristotle.

This is $10 billion for a legacy railroad project

ML-1 railway: Pakistan, China decide to execute $10bn project

JCC decides to undertake business-to-business deals under CPEC.Pakistan assures of taking initiatives for security of Chinese.Both sides agree to expand cooperation in information technology.ISLAMABAD:...

www.geo.tv

I can tell you a very small amount of the $10 billion is going into the coffers of Pakistani politicians

To be fair Imran Khan did not sign any of these deals

 

[FuturePAF]

The only problem is that Pakistan is not going to war for China. Maybe with enough carrots against India. Not against America

Pakistan doesn’t have to fight any other country then India. Primarily it is to guard a supply route of commodities (not arms); as a commercial venture. I.e. “Free and Open Indo-Pacific”

If China goes to war with India, there will probably be a Pakistani component to such a war if interests collide. China wouldn’t want to go to full all out war for anything less then a major reason. All other operations would be below a certain threshold. Besides, as the war in Ukraine has shown, commercial trade with Russia isn’t completely cut off when it comes to commodities.

If the corridor is built up enough and managed well enough, it may not be the most cost effective option, but it will keep a certain amount of supplies coming such as food stuffs and energy supplies.

This is all good, but how could China trust Pakistan!! Whose COAS runs to USA on any given chance, ask for their help, provide them basis and no-fly zone.
While a PM of Pakistan, had family and commercial ties with India, invite Modi to family wedding, employ Indian nationals in their sugar mills and provide visas to them without any security checks.
This looks like a nation which wants to contain India!! What about the assistance from China stolen by the political theives!!

Commercial reasons. The transit trade the corridor would generate. Not to mention all the spares Pakistan needs for it’s Chinese origin equipment.

Pakistan wouldn’t do any fighting in a US-China war over Taiwan, and China doesn’t expect Pakistan to do so anyway. It’s about keeping supply routes open for goods and commodities from outside the Indo-Pacific region, sort of like the Burma road during WW2.

The other reason is to build up Pakistan, to keep Indian forces tied down to the Pakistani border. India can’t move and acclimatize it’s troops for a war with China in less then a few weeks. That could be all the time China really needs.

Pakistan’s economy has been pillaged to the point that the nation is desperate for funds. A lot of what is done now, vis a Vu all the concessions you outlined are because Pakistan has to bargain for the meager resources and trade deals it is offered at the moment. If China builds up Pakistan, it will make Pakistan less likely to continue to grant these concessions. Pakistan wouldn’t completely go into the Chinese camp, and China knows it, but it will be able to afford to do the things that are in its own interests and support greater internal stability.

 

[nahtanbob]

Pakistan doesn’t have to fight any other country then India. Primarily it is to guard a supply route of commodities (not arms); as a commercial venture. I.e. “Free and Open Indo-Pacific”

If US Navy blockades Chinese cargo headed for Gwadar let us know what you plan to do ?

Pakistan achilles heel is India. The fear of US or China support for India is enough to keep Pakistan neutral.

 

[crankthatskunk]

This is $10 billion for a legacy railroad project

ML-1 railway: Pakistan, China decide to execute $10bn project

JCC decides to undertake business-to-business deals under CPEC.Pakistan assures of taking initiatives for security of Chinese.Both sides agree to expand cooperation in information technology.ISLAMABAD:...

www.geo.tv

I can tell you a very small amount of the $10 billion is going into the coffers of Pakistani politicians

To be fair Imran Khan did not sign any of these deals

Do you have any idea, if any progress whatsoever is made on this project!!
You know Chinese when they are serious about something, they work at frantic pace.

 

[nahtanbob]

Do you have any idea, if any progress whatsoever is made on this project!!
You know Chinese when they are serious about something, they work at frantic pace.

You sound like a used car salesman to me. At the end of the day it is $10 billion for a 600 mile legacy railway track line. The $$$ do not add up. I assume you want the money to be repaid

What do I care ? I am not paying for it

 

[Novus ordu seclorum]

If the last year is any pointer, Pakistan at present can best be described as a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. Anyone thinking of long-term policy at this juncture needs to get their head examined.

By the ideology of two-nation theory, Pakistani state requires a Hindu majority India for it's national identity. How absurd is that. Pakistani nationalists provoke and enable Hindu nationalism, and see it as a success to justifiy their existence.

 

[epebble]

By the ideology of two-nation theory, Pakistani state requires a Hindu majority India for it's national identity. How absurd is that. Pakistani nationalists provoke and enable Hindu nationalism, and see it as a success to justifiy their existence.

I don't understand this. Raison d'être for a nation of 220 million is to act like trolls. For 75 years and going? I think for a large number of Pakistanis and its government, the main concern is where will my next meal come from, how about a roof over my head and what will happen to me when I fall sick. Trolling is a luxury for a microscopic fraction of the populace. Most Pakistanis living today are born well after 1947, have never been to India and likely know as much about Hinduism as about Mormonism or Scientology.

 

[Novus ordu seclorum]

I don't understand this. Raison d'être for a nation of 220 million is to act like trolls. For 75 years and going? I think for a large number of Pakistanis and its government, the main concern is where will my next meal come from, how about a roof over my head and what will happen to me when I fall sick. Trolling is a luxury for a microscopic fraction of the populace. Most Pakistanis living today are born well after 1947, have never been to India and likely know as much about Hinduism as about Mormonism or Scientology.

Well, two-nation theory is the founding ideology of Pakistan and they keep falling back to it. That ideology boxes them in, so they cannot 'think out of the box'.

 

[peagle]

Rush Doshi is the head of China policy at the US NSC (National Security Council)

This is probably a good book to read for those wonder what Biden’s policy is going to be toward China. If I had to guess, the author; an Indian-American, is probably going to advocate for enhanced “cooperation” via the Quad. Cooperation can mean anything and everything but not nothing.

For China, to tie down India, building up Pakistan is probably the most cost effective manner, similar to the US providing aid (via us weapons and investment) to Israel until the Arab countries were willing to make the Abraham accords, or similar to building up South Korea and Japan to contain the Soviets, PRC, and DPRK.

Now, before anyone says this is an appeal/begging; should look at the three examples I gave above. Countries that had the will to fight but not the means, like Ukraine. I recall a Chinese official saying Pakistan is there Israel. So now maybe the time for them to double down on that. In turn, Pakistan would make the structural changes to never need to go to the IMF again and have the means to do more regional initiatives, such as a Karakoram Railway, or a rail line from Karachi to Gwadar and on to Taftan, do use to develop the Reko-Diq mine as well as make the SEZs on the coast and not inland where it is more costly to make profitable.

Investment for these rail lines (which would mostly go to Chinese companies anyway) could be strategically important for both Pakistan and China in the near future.

Should China provide a steady supply of military equipment and FDI (not loans) to Pakistan; on the order of $5-10 Billion a year for a few decades. A lot of the money could go to Chinese companies to just set equipment, so the money would not leave China, and $6-10 billion ($3 billion for the military and $3 for the civilian economy) is only the equivalent 2-4% of the PLA’s budget, but considering how far that kind of money can go in Pakistan, it could make a considerable difference. Just look at how for a few billion dollars front the IMF has such a large impact on Pakistan’s stability. Investment like this for the next 20-25 years should help Pakistan catch back up with India on a GDP per capita basis, as it would be a stable base investment that would motivate other investors; as proposed for BRI 2.0. By mid-century India’s population is expected to peak, while Pakistan’s population is expected to grow for the next 75 years. Basically I’m saying Chinese money should be turned into mostly grants (with funds to Chinese companies). With this kind of breathing room, Pakistan can spend on social services (which would help better stabilize Pakistan’s western provinces and employ youth that could potential be recruited by miscreant groups), which will bring out the full potential of Pakistan and that is a growing economy China can do more business in; providing artificial intelligence based data integration engines for all Pakistani sectors, helping to upskill Pakistani business and workers. Products and services Pakistani business and workers/students could then afford to buy.

This is the long term kind of investments that build up the Asian tigers into economic and military powers. It would also be the level of investment that would open up Chinese companies to have the opportunity for “smart growth” in Pakistan. The only caveat would be to build in safeguards to prevent corruption and embezzlement by local elites. Smart growth would also be locating and building up Pakistani talent for joint ventures in tech firms inside Pakistan, similar to all the Tech MNC with R&D offices in Israel.

Also, the US wrote off Ukraine’s debt to allow them to focus on fighting Russia. Should China write off Pakistan’s debt so it can pour resources to build up the economy and better contain India?

10:15-11:42

The following video is more informative of how he things China sees the world.

Btw @ 34:20 he credits Minnie Chan on the carrier acquisition story, so you can tell that opinions like Minnie Chan via Doshi make there way up to official recommendations and get presented to the government. So for those that say Minnie Chan should not be believed, should consider that her views are heard in policy formation process.

Without American help Europe, Japan and South Korea would still be backwaters or at most upper middle income countries, hardly able to offer any support to the Americans in the cold war against the Soviets.
Without European money, technology and comprehensive help based on effective partnerships Spain, Southern Europe and certainly Eastern Europe would still be dirt poor, and certainly not in a position to stand up to Russia in the East.

The fact remains, strong allies provide strength to the benefactor nation in the long term. Pakistan is expected to have a population of at least 400 million by the time it stabilises, that will be a massive market and a strong partner for any friendly nation.

Yes it is possible in the future IF AND WHEN that rivalry is subdued by India having narrowed the gap with China.
China and India ARE rational powers.


China would never do that EVER. Remember my words. China is more than happy to see Pakistan allied in its endeavor to slow down the rise of India but it CANNOT create another powerful state that holds ISLAM central to its raison detre .
It is trying its best to bring inhabitants of Xinyang into line via mass imprisonment torture reeducation and teaching a Islam approved by the communist party.
China KNOWS how Pakistan jumps from one owner to another depending on who offers them money. So we have seen Pakistan the most allied ally of USA for many many decades. USA has paid $67 billion to Pakistan in that time.

(((((((((((((((Between 1951 and 2011, the US sent in $67 billion. The US withdrew the last of its troops from Afghanistan in August 2021.Dr Farrukh Saleem
)))))))))))))))

That by the way is OLD money worth a lot more than todays dollar. You also at various points became Arabs Turks etc. Pakistan CREATED the Taliban , wined and dined Osama, nearly every Islamic terrorist got trained in Pakistan at some stage. Insurgencies were propagated from Pakistan into Tajikistan Uzbekistan Russia Kashmir to name a few.
The Chinese are rational people they are not going to arm a idiot nation to potentially create Islamic mayhem in China as Pakistan has done elsewhere.

China will continue to apply pressure through various rational actions. India's job is to side step them and TRY to close the gap.

India's course is strewn with many potholes and sinkholes , there is no certainty that the gap can be closed.

Busy peddling your fantasies, well done, keep up the good work.

Well, two-nation theory is the founding ideology of Pakistan and they keep falling back to it. That ideology boxes them in, so they cannot 'think out of the box'.

Would you care to expand on your two nation wisdom, making statements is one thing but presenting rational discussion is something else.
Let's see what's in that beautiful mind of yours.

 

[peagle]

I don't understand this. Raison d'être for a nation of 220 million is to act like trolls. For 75 years and going? I think for a large number of Pakistanis and its government, the main concern is where will my next meal come from, how about a roof over my head and what will happen to me when I fall sick. Trolling is a luxury for a microscopic fraction of the populace. Most Pakistanis living today are born well after 1947, have never been to India and likely know as much about Hinduism as about Mormonism or Scientology.

For someone with such a sanctimonious bs attitude, you sure are full of hate.
Look in the mirror and you might find yourself.

 

[FuturePAF]

If US Navy blockades Chinese cargo headed for Gwadar let us know what you plan to do ?

Pakistan achilles heel is India. The fear of US or China support for India is enough to keep Pakistan neutral.

Has the US done that for Russian cargo/exports on Indian ships? Or other nation for that matter? I’m not taking about arms transshipment, but food, fuel, and other raw materials for civilian use and production; to sustain the lives of Chinese civilians. If the US blocks “Chinese Cargo” going to Pakistani ports, then the ships transporting African goods to Pakistani Ports will fly Pakistanis or some other neutral nation’s flag. Perhaps a Turkish shipping company could transport goods back and forth between Djibouti and Karachi. Same would apply for “Pakistani Goods” going to Africa from a Pakistani Port. Final product assemble can take place in Pakistan and be label a product of Pakistan. Standard business practice. It would be where the deep water port of Gwadar with potential capacity to handle so many TEUs of cargo annually can prosper.

If Pakistan’s Achilles heel was India, that would have been played long ago, say for instance when the Soviets were in Afghanistan. The Chinese wouldn’t support India. If you think Chinese think Pakistan is a peer competitor with China (which no else would claim) then obviously India would be considered a potential peer competitor for China. China can not afford to let India build up against it. China has always viewed Indians as the enforcers of western colonialism. That’s not just a view of what the CCP thinks but Chinese intellectuals and officials from the time of the opium wars and the sacking of Beijing by the west with the use of Indian troops. Just watch the following video from an Indian academic that has studied the subject.

 

[TheSolution]

Well, two-nation theory is the founding ideology of Pakistan and they keep falling back to it. That ideology boxes them in, so they cannot 'think out of the box'.

You spout the same nonsense continuously again and again in nearly every thread. Muslims, Hindus, India, Pakistan. At this point it seems like you're trying to prove something to yourself rather than anyone else.

The ideal society Muslims of the subcontinent envisioned is vastly different to the ideal society Hindus envision. Our social values differ greatly hence Pakistan was created. There's nothing more to it. Move on.

 

[FuturePAF]

You spout the same nonsense continuously again and again in nearly every thread. Muslims, Hindus, India, Pakistan. At this point it seems like you're trying to prove something to yourself rather than anyone else.

The ideal society Muslims of the subcontinent envisioned is vastly different to the ideal society Hindus envision. Our social values differ greatly hence Pakistan was created. There's nothing more to it. Move on.

And with the BJP’s remaking of India into what seemly a majority of Indians want proved Jinnah correct. Btw, at the time of partition the ratio of Hindus to Muslims what what constituted British controlled India was 3:1 as Jinnah ports out intbe following video, while today, 75 years later it is 2:1. In another 75 years, if demographic trends continue, it will be nearly 1:1.

But that is getting off topic. Let’s return back to why it is in China’s interest to help Pakistan with focused aid.

 

[Novus ordu seclorum]

You spout the same nonsense continuously again and again in nearly every thread. Muslims, Hindus, India, Pakistan. At this point it seems like you're trying to prove something to yourself rather than anyone else.

The ideal society Muslims of the subcontinent envisioned is vastly different to the ideal society Hindus envision. Our social values differ greatly hence Pakistan was created. There's nothing more to it. Move on.

So, in other words, Pakistani national identity was founded based on religious demographics, and you don't see Punjabis on the other side as your countrymen, even though you have been ruled by Sikh Punjabis in history. The split in identity happened after British rule.