What's new

Rupee suffers 4% fall in intra-day movement

.
Pakistan central bank comes to rescue of rupee

ISLAMABAD, Dec. 13 (Xinhua) -- The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) intervened on Wednesday to arrest the continuous slide of Pakistani rupees against U.S. dollar in the interbank and the open markets.

The central bank pumped greenbacks into the interbank market to halt the steep decline in the value of the local currency, which closed the day at 110.52 on Wednesday as against the close of 110.64 rupees recorded on Tuesday.

The local currency moved in a narrow range throughout the day after the central b
ank's intervention, experts told Xinhua, further stating that the SBP directed a few major banks to sell their holdings which put brakes on the U.S. dollar's rally.

The intervention has put an end to a three-day slide of Pakistani rupee against the greenback. Pakistani rupee gave away 5 percent value against U.S. dollars in the three-day fall. During the intraday trade, the greenback surged up to 111.10 rupees besides hitting an intraday low of 110.25 rupees.

Due to the recent decline in the value of the national currency, the burden of debt on Pakistan increased tremendously. The country's overall debt jumped by 352 billion rupees to 22,943 billion rupees from the previous figure of 22,591 billion rupees.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-12/13/c_136823733.htm

SBP has started intervening in the Market again. This will not be appreciated by the IMF and will lead to loss of FOREX which is already in a precarious situation.
 
.
Banks, currency dealers pump dollars in market to stop further falling of domestic unit

Razi Syed

DECEMBER 14, 2017

Dollar.jpg
KARACHI: Commercial banks and private currency dealers pumped dollars into the money market to stop further falling of domestic unit in value versus dollar.

Around an estimated $235 million were put into the market by these two currency controllers besides holding of exporters and forward deal holdings of leading importers in the country were also used to help out the rupee, said forex dealers.

This step was taken after State Bank of Pakistan’s intervention in money market mechanism as the bank asked commercial banks to pump dollars.

Overall, the domestic unit shed around 5.1 percent in three trading sessions since Friday and the current steps helped out the rupee to some extent and ended in a narrow band on Wednesday.

The domestic unit stood at around Rs 110.54 against Rs 110.93 closing versus dollar. The dollar showed a high of Rs 111.12 and low of Rs 110.35.

Analysts said economic managers in the helm of government and finance should take concrete measures to control imbalance between imports and exports.

The economist and leading export-oriented sectors’ businessmen were of the view that fall in domestic unit value will likely to increase general prices of commodities.

Senior executive members of Pakistan Tanners Association and Pakistan Yarn Merchants association Agha Saiddain and Ghulam Rabbani have maintained that Pakistan has already failed raising tax revenue from the present 12 percent of gross domestic product to 15 percent by 2016.



The country’s foreign exchange reserves for payment of export bills and bills on oil, commodities and major raw industrial materials’ imports are also under immense pressure as demand for dollar has increased.

Government has to give incentives to export-oriented sectors including energy solutions, lowering tariffs on utilities, value addition imports and increase share of direct taxes in revenue.

It is blessing in disguise that exports values could be increased during the period of strong dollar versus rupee in coming months with depreciation of rupee against dollar, they opined.

On the other hand current account deficit of the country in July-October 2017 has been increased from $2.25 billion to $5 billion during July-Oct 2017 as compared to same months last year.

The overall size of the debt has risen to Rs 23,990 billion from Rs 22,992 billion recorded on June 30, 2017.

The debt on every Pakistani has increased. Overall debt burden has been increased by Rs 429 billion, but on every Pakistani it has been increased to Rs 1,795 to Rs 116990 from Rs 115,230.


Published in Daily Times, December 14th 2017.

https://dailytimes.com.pk/159166/ba...mp-dollars-market-stop-falling-domestic-unit/

Thats dollar 235 million less from the forex and the currency is still over valued by a fair margin.
 
.
So lets see how much forex Pakistan is losing every month. On Nov 23 SBP's forex reserves were 13.5 Billion dollars ( https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/247970-forex-reserves-decline ). There after SBP acquired 2.5 billion dollars from Sukuk/eurobond. Therefore SBP' reserves out to have increased to 13.5 + 2.5 billion dollars = 16 billion dollars.

Now as per the later figures the reserves have increased to 14.6 billion dollars ( https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/256127-forex-reserves-fall-to-20-686bln ) Thats just 1 billion dollar more. Therefore with in a period of 2 weeks Pakistan's forex decreased by 1.5 billion dollars. Now keeping in mind that 5.8 billion dollars of that amount belongs to commercial banks ( forward contracts). The net reserves with SBP are 8.8 billion dollars as of now.

There is a repayment of 5 Billion dollars to be made by June 2018 ( forex should reduce to 3.5 billion dollars) . Which means, approaching IMF is no longer a choice, especially when the Fiscal deficit for the first 5 month is 15 billion dollars.
Suggestion : Convert your rupee into dollars and earn a fortune. I see PKR at 120-125 by June 2018.
 
.
So lets see how much forex Pakistan is losing every month. On Nov 23 SBP's forex reserves were 13.5 Billion dollars ( https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/247970-forex-reserves-decline ). There after SBP acquired 2.5 billion dollars from Sukuk/eurobond. Therefore SBP' reserves out to have increased to 13.5 + 2.5 billion dollars = 16 billion dollars.

Now as per the later figures the reserves have increased to 14.6 billion dollars ( https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/256127-forex-reserves-fall-to-20-686bln ) Thats just 1 billion dollar more. Therefore with in a period of 2 weeks Pakistan's forex decreased by 1.5 billion dollars. Now keeping in mind that 5.8 billion dollars of that amount belongs to commercial banks ( forward contracts). The net reserves with SBP are 8.8 billion dollars as of now.

There is a repayment of 5 Billion dollars to be made by June 2018 ( forex should reduce to 3.5 billion dollars) . Which means, approaching IMF is no longer a choice, especially when the Fiscal deficit for the first 5 month is 15 billion dollars.
Suggestion : Convert your rupee into dollars and earn a fortune. I see PKR at 120-125 by June 2018.
lol
reserves will be kept at 3-4 months of imports
bonds are always floated to pay old bonds
so 2.5 was simply a replacement
go and dig out 5 years old news where rupee will crash never happened
fact: indian rupee has lost more value than pak rupee since 2012
 
.
Back
Top Bottom