Rupee strengthens to 97.90 against dollar

[VCheng]

And what are those fundamentals?

By the End of this Govt term,Our Economy status will be either like this or even better


*More than 6% Growth rate
*More than 30Billion dollars reserves
*Export if the present growth rate continue so than atleast 50Billion dollars
*We know Alot of energy projects are in the Pipe and will add 2000-3000mw by the next 2-3 years.
*GDP More than 500Billion dollars atleast(If the GDP by the end of june this year Indeed is 28.4trillion PKR Which translate to 298Bn$)

With this happening,I don't know how will PKR reach 150 against a dollar.

I believe PKR crossing 100 again is not possible in this decade.

"With this happening"? Has it happened yet? No?

 

[rockstar08]

i recently buy some Dollars
but i am happy that my country's economy is getting better

 

[farhan_9909]

Well under the musharaf Govt it increased from 51 to 60 in 9long years.

This govt is atleast comparable if not better compared to musharaf govt for economy.

And the Rupee is already over de valued by the last govt under condition signed with IMF.

 

[Bilal.]

I have posted the history of the decline elsewhere on PDF already. As long as Pakistan produces less than what it consumes, it will continue to decline the value of its currency. That is a fundamental fact from which there is no escape.

Historic data is not the basis of calculation, it's more speculative. But since you quoted a very precise 10% decline per year, I would like to see the exact calculation you used to derive this conclusion unless you cooked it up based on gut feeling. The rest of your post is again rhetorical, you spoke of fundamentals, tell me the specifics? We you referring to the trade deficit, which decreased by ~4.5% in the first 8 months, were you talking about FBR revenue collection which increased by 17% in the first 8months, were you talking about fiscal deficit which reduced to ~3.2% compared to last years ~4.2% or were you talking about remittences which increased by 10%+ in the for 8 months? Now again, tell me which indicators we you refering to? How exactly did you calculate 10% decline....

 

[VCheng]

But since you quoted a very precise 10% decline per year,

Please read my post again, slowly:

Given the fundamentals, all indications are that the PKR will remain on a path of steady decline in value of about 10% per year, approaching 150 to the dollar by the end of term of this government.

 

[Bilal.]

Please read my post again, slowly:

Tell me how exactly did you conclude it would be "about 10%" and say not about 5% or about -5%, why the arbitrary 10%? give me the calculation. As for historic charts, it's like saying Turkey used to have hyper devaluation and hyperinflation so they should keep on the same trend since projecting the historic data forward says so, it doesn't work like that. I ask you again, what indicators did you refer too, what formula did you use in your calculation, give me the hard data which you used to come to the conclusion.

 

[xyxmt]

Sheikh Saab Ab to khuda ke lye retire ho jao, jhootey wada khilaf
what happened to his running his had on his face every time and claiming yeh to ho nehe sakta main yeh aur main wo...freaking chutia

Considering that 3Billion worth reserves will also be saved since the Govt wants to import oil for 3 months by banks money.

Most important Pakistan is also discussing a possibility of 10Billion dollars worth oil deal with Saudi arabia and kuwait on deferred payment.

more than a Billion from 3g Auction.

Export has witnessed a 18% growth rate.Which means even if the situation remain so.We will hit 40Billion dollars within 2 or max 2 and half years.

In the end I see the Rupee value to drop upto 90 and remain for this whole year.And by 2016-17 When our Growth rate is more than 6%,Reserve more than 20Billion dollars and export also more than 40Billion dollars.Than the Rupee value against dollars will be more like 70.

It doesnt matter, some people see the dark side always, they would rather put Hassan Nisar show instead and listen to his bhongian.

"With this happening"? Has it happened yet? No?

when this govt ended?

 

[VCheng]

it doesn't work like that.

Okay, we will soon see who is closer to the reality. There is no point in arguing. I am on record saying that this rally will not last and the PKR will continue to decline about 10% per year for the term of this government. I will stand by this assessment.

Turkey and other nations in dire straits as you mention took some hard decisions to turn around their financial situations, not shell games like the Pakistani government. That is a huge difference that you and all others should pay attention to rather than being influenced by the failure to see reality.

..........


when this govt ended?

This is the historic data, the last few months' data since the present government came to power can be easily found online.

 

[livingdead]

expats send money now before its too late .. @Imran Khan

 

[Pakistanisage]

Has Sheikh Rasheed resigned from his Assembly Seat , yet ?

 

[SHAMK9]

Has Sheikh Rasheed resigned from his Assembly Seat , yet ?

 

[Crypto]

@VCheng if it was the real deal, commodity prices should have come down too
Pumping dollars in the reserve to artificially strengthen rupee will not work for too long.

 

[Bilal.]

@VCheng if it was the real deal, commodity prices should come down too
Pumping dollars in the reserve to artificially strengthen rupee will not work for too long.

By commodity I guess you mean petroleum. It will not happen till government decides to pass on the price reduction to consumers, which they may choose not to do fully to bridge fiscal deficit further. All other major commodities are locally produced and will have price impact only if petroleum prices are lowered(transportation cost).

@VCheng, why so defensive? I just ask you your method of deduction and the hard data you used for it. So what was your method? Was it a proper forecasting model or was it just a gut feeling. If you can't provide hard data and your forecasting model then the whole thing is just your speculation andeven if it happens it's just a tukka, hardly an intellectual feat.

 

[Edevelop]

Experts foresee more recovery in rupee value

KARACHI - Economic experts have expressed the hope that government’s efforts to strengthen the local currency against the dollar would benefit country’s economy, saying that timely efforts of the government helped restore the value of Pakistani rupee.
Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP) Chairman Malik Bostan told The Nation that dollar depreciation against rupee would continue in near future. Bostan hoped that the US dollar rate, which had crossed the figure of Rs110 a few months back, would come down to Rs 90 in next few days. ECAP chairman said finance minister Ishaq Dar, after massive decline in rupee value, had clearly warned the banks in a meeting that the ministry would cancel the licenses of banks found involved in speculations. “This warning worked, bringing dollar rate down,” he said.
He claimed, “Actually, the previous situation (massive jump in dollar value) was the result of banking cartel holding dollars to increase its value for profit.” He explained that private banks had held the dollars which were sold by exporters and it created hype in the money market, resulting in increasing the value of greenback. “It all had happed because of previous government’s policy of facilitating those banks which were holding dollars to increase its value against rupee,” he added.
Aimon Khan, analyst at Aerari, said during last few days there was panic in the market and every one tried to sell dollar including the exporters. “Better dollars supply to the market due to different reasons including reserves growth, flow of remittances are some the reasons that brought US dollar price down in double digits,” Aimon said and added rupee appreciation would also bring inflation down. “Consistency is good for the market and Ishaq Dar is still warning the market players to avoid unnecessary speculation, which is good,” she said. “Rapid increase or rapid decrease is not good for economy but we can’t say that current depreciation of dollar is artificial,” she said.
Experts foresee more recovery in rupee value

 

[A.Rafay]

So did Sheikh Rasheed quite politics? Tell me about it.