Rupee firms against US dollar

[Lil Mathew]

@Lil Mathew, our trade balance have improved compared to last year, don't spread wrong information based on your personal feelings instead of fact.

Trade deficit shrinks 4pc - DAWN.COM

Bro.. In my above post i mean 2014 (jan,feb) trade deficit against the 2013(jan,feb) and not financial year.. As that relevent more in this descussion.. Your trade deficit was an all time high of $2 billion in jan 2014.. The interesting fact is it increased from 1.2 billion in dec 13.. That is 60% increase.. Feb 2014 was also not behind..That is above your source only says the average of 7 months from july 2013 to jan 14 is lower than trade deficit in same period 2012-13..

 

[Nishan_101]

Is there any point where we can say that Dollar will going to drop more in coming time or GoP will freeze it at 100 PKR.

Also if Middle Eastern Investment being welcomed by GoP in Oil, Gas and Coal along with other Minerals then will it be at 70 PKR...

 

[Bilal.]

Bro.. In my above post i mean 2014 (jan,feb) trade deficit against the 2013(jan,feb) and not financial year.. As that relevent more in this descussion.. Your trade deficit was an all time high of $2 billion in jan 2014.. The interesting fact is it increased from 1.2 billion in dec 13.. That is 60% increase.. Feb 2014 was also not behind..That is above your source only says the average of 7 months from july 2013 to jan 14 is lower than trade deficit in same period 2012-13..

You do understand that the rupee appreciation did not happen in january, so your correlation is completely wrong. While febraury the trade deficit actually shrunk by 7.5% YoY, while there might be fluctuations the over all trend is postive. You can't just zoom into one month and call the overall performance bad.

Exports increase 18% YoY – The Express Tribune

 

[My-Analogous]

Is there any point where we can say that Dollar will going to drop more in coming time or GoP will freeze it at 100 PKR.

Also if Middle Eastern Investment being welcomed by GoP in Oil, Gas and Coal along with other Minerals then will it be at 70 PKR...

This year till June-July dollar will be 98 and later further drop to 92 by year end

 

[HRK]

Bro.. In my above post i mean 2014 (jan,feb) trade deficit against the 2013(jan,feb) and not financial year.. As that relevent more in this descussion.. Your trade deficit was an all time high of $2 billion in jan 2014.. The interesting fact is it increased from 1.2 billion in dec 13.. That is 60% increase.. Feb 2014 was also not behind..That is above your source only says the average of 7 months from july 2013 to jan 14 is lower than trade deficit in same period 2012-13..

Balance of trade for Jul - Jan for FY14 & FY13 is almost same .... so plz spare this thread form trolling ........

 

[ziaulislam]

Economy is not a child play. Please note the following point

Pakistan has refused to sell gold worth $2.7 billion (Answer: It is Internationally accept that Gold reserves is consider as an Reserves for any country and writer don't have knowledge regarding that please follow this link to understand that deeply (Old but informative) Gold reserve - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Pakistan’s central bank continued its efforts to build reserves by purchasing dollars from the market. (Answer: To make currency stabilize State Banks of all over the world do that and if SBP don't do that then Dollar will be down disasterly below and hurt Pakistan Economy badly. Even today if Dollar goes below 96 then all Pakistan trade profit will be become loss and this year our exporter will not gain any profit and now in 98(Value of Dollar) our exporter record their profit less with an average of 5 to 7%. So it iss very common that SB interfere and control Dollar. You can check with any economist about this and they will guide you in depth. (SBP warning to speculators strengthens rupee | AAJ News These are major duties of SBP to control PRs. value

In short the person who create this bullshit article is not a guy who have basic knowledge of economy and SP responsibilities. We have plenty of such kind of so called professional shits and they have access in top knots and this news paper must take this responsibility and made clarification about that (Which they will not b/c of their ego)



Our all bubble was busted during previous govt and now in economy we have nothing to lose and you guys don't have an idea about our economy, so please don't comment on that

state bank itself said it had been strengthening it reserves from open market. there were dozens of articles.
anyway exporters wouldnt lose to such a small rupee gains because other regional economies all shown some local currency strengthening too. similarly, local costs of production will go down.

look at indian rupee it gained similarly as ours in term of percentage it gained 8% in recent month.
the author was wrong about the gold but that depends upon statebank whether it was ready to provide the gold as liquidity to market or not.
commonly central banks dont interfere in currency gains or losses thats what IMF dictates. if reserve do reach to govt wishes of around 20 billion dollars only then the real value of rupee can observed.

This economic bubble is going to be disastorous for Pak economy.. Because biggest advantage of local currency rise is it reduces inflation (only for negetive trade balance economy, that is import greater than export).. But the reality is.. Your trade balance now is worst than last year.. And the worst thing is exporters are now panic due to dollar devaluation and eventually it will increase the negetive trade balance.. So now the chance of high inflation is there..
Also there is a chance that money inflow which caused this bubble will increase inflation..
Proper investment of this loan is the next prob.. Major portion may be used to repay the existing loans.. Investing in defence, health, education ,allowance for pleasing ordinary people are all bad choices as these are all long term investments without any sudden impact in economy.. Now investin in energy sector and infra development is a choice.. But these are also time consuming and proper utilisation is not sure in pakistan..
Anyway there is no short cut for an economy to grow.. Foreign aids and loans are temporary solutions.. Steady and good growth of economy is the only solution for better future .. Now Navaz pm got enough money to enjoy his term..
This temporary bubble is because of pak getting around 6-8 billion dollars foreign aid for next some months from IMF,KSA and USA.

current account deficit is that what matters.
in growing economies even that doesnt matter.

look at Indian econmy and austriain econmy.
their trade deficit and current account deficit are tremendous

 

[Lil Mathew]

You do understand that the rupee appreciation did not happen in january, so your correlation is completely wrong. While febraury the trade deficit actually shrunk by 7.5% YoY, while there might be fluctuations the over all trend is postive. You can't just zoom into one month and call the overall performance bad.

Exports increase 18% YoY – The Express Tribune

But these datas clearly shows that you economy is still weak.. countrie's economic fundas not changed..no high growth in manufacturing and service sectors.. this clearly shows this dollar devaluation is only by the loans and aid from USA and KSA.. As the inflow stops this bubble will collapse... this 8 billion will become an extra burden.. also export sector will be destructed during this short term because of low dollar rate.. your economy is so weak to readjust with these sudden fluctuations... also this 8 billion investment is a matter of concern.. its sure that major share will be mismanaged as the treasury of pakistan is almost dry..

Balance of trade for Jul - Jan for FY14 & FY13 is almost same .... so plz spare this thread form trolling ........

compare jan, feb 2014 with previous months... your datas are about this financial year.. that is from jul 2013 to jan 2014 and FY13 ( Jul 12 -jan13)...

 

[Hyperion]

Good for Pakistan. Bad for me. I had to exchange some money in the coming week......

 

[Bilal.]

@Lil Mathew, now you are going on another tangent. The growth rate won't jump to high in just one year but it is going to be a healthy 4-4.5%. You are repeating the same thing about export going down without hard stats, let's wait till the end of the final quarter and the stats will come in, otherwise it's all conjectures and hypothesis.

Again the most important thing is not a snapshot of a given moment but the trend. If the trend is in the positive direction then it means things are improving.

 

[farhanalee7]

Hoping for Long term efforts and effects

 

[HRK]

compare jan, feb 2014 with previous months... your datas are about this financial year.. that is from jul 2013 to jan 2014 and FY13 ( Jul 12 -jan13)...

so you are basing all arguments & analysis on 1 month figures and that too wrong figures, I would really love to see the source of figures you quoted .....

Now have a look on official source for the trade difference for the months of Jan-Feb 14

hope now you will restrain yourself from further trolling, but don't forget to post the source for your 'quoted figures'

@Lil Mathew, now you are going on another tangent. The growth rate won't jump to high in just one year but it is going to be a healthy 4-4.5%. You are repeating the same thing about export going down without hard stats, let's wait till the end of the final quarter and the stats will come in, otherwise it's all conjectures and hypothesis.

Again the most important thing is not a snapshot of a given moment but the trend. If the trend is in the positive direction then it means things are improving.

ignore him he is just a troll ..... I am having doubt that he is having any understanding of Pakistan's Economic

 

[VCheng]

Now have a look on official source for the trade difference for the months of Jan-Feb 14

The imbalance is somewhat covered by the remittances, which is what keeps the dying show on the road.

 

[HRK]

The imbalance is somewhat covered by the remittances, which is what keeps the dying show on the road.

yap .... very much but not completely

===> (Exports+Foriegin Remitances) - Imports = -763

===> (14,704+9,033) - 24,500 = -763 (all figures are in million $)
For the period of July 2013 till January 2014, sources SBP Monetary Policy Compendium March 2014.

 

[VCheng]

yap .... very much but not completely

===> (Exports+Foriegin Remitances) - Imports = -763

===> (14,704+9,033) - 24,500 = -763 (all figures are in million $)
For the period of July 2013 till January 2014, sources SBP Monetary Policy Compendium March 2014.

Hence the use of the word "somewhat" in my post.

 

[Lil Mathew]

so you are basing all arguments & analysis on 1 month figures and that too wrong figures, I would really love to see the source of figures you quoted .....

Now have a look on official source for the trade difference for the months of Jan-Feb 14

View attachment 22584 hope now you will restrain yourself from further trolling, but don't forget to post the source for your 'quoted figures'



ignore him he is just a troll ..... I am having doubt that he is having any understanding of Pakistan's Economic

https://www.google.co.in/url?sa=t&s...UQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNHhuDi3paHFA3cBdv0cNZInTib2og

https://www.google.co.in/url?sa=t&s...gQFjAB&usg=AFQjCNHtmJ3lnd8u5Ght9adu1Dk_cg_Glg
https://www.google.co.in/url?sa=t&s...sQFjAH&usg=AFQjCNFFkXlFW7gg9Tux70A6V9HsM_fCvg