Lady: “Caught between a rock and a hard place”
Larry Jagan, September 18, 2017
Four hundred thousand Muslim Rohingyas have fled across the border to Bangladesh from Myanmar in the last 3 weeks to escape the army’s clearance operations. Human rights groups claim it’s a “scorched earth” policy – reminiscent of the military’s traditional ‘four cuts’ strategy for dealing with other conflict zones. Some 3,000 houses have been razed to the ground, according to local activists.
The international hue and cry has become deafening: with the European Union cancelling an important trade mission in retaliation. The Bangladesh prime minister Sheik Hasina – once a close ally of Aung San Suu Kyi, especially when she was under house arrest – will raise the Rohingya issue as a matter of urgency at the UN general assembly next week, according to senior Bangladesh government officials.
The prime minister will highlight the basic causes behind the Rohingya crisis: “She will ask [the UN] for immediate implementation of the recommendations made by Kofi Annan’s commission [Advisory Commission on Rakhine State],” the Foreign Minister AH Mahmood Ali told a press conference in Dhaka last week. Other world leaders have also urged the Myanmar government to adopt the Kofi Annan recommendations, as a matter of urgency.
Aung San Suu Kyi is skipping the UN meeting next week – with the vice president leading the Myanmar delegation instead — to allow her to concentrate on tackling the Rakhine situation, using the Kofi Annan recommendations as the basis of the government’s approach.
This is in fact was the Lady’s strategy all along, according to government insiders, but the security situation in Rakhine has prevented this so far. “The security forces have been instructed to adhere strictly to the Code of Conduct in carrying out security operations, to exercise all due restraint, and to take full measures to avoid collateral damage and the harming of innocent civilians in the course of carrying out their legitimate duty to restore stability,” said a statement issued by Aung San Suu Kyi’s office late last week.
However Aung San Suu Kyi will address the nation in a few days outlining the government’s roadmap to reconciliation in Rakhine state, according to government sources. As part of this plan, a “Ministerial-led Committee to monitor the progress of the implementation of the recommendations will be established speedily, and an Advisory Board comprised of eminent persons from home and abroad will also be constituted to assist the Committee in its work,” according to Aung San Suu Kyi’s latest statement.
But the Lady is between a rock and a hard place, according to diplomats and analysts based in Yangon. “She does not have complete freedom to move, when it comes to the situation in Rakhine,” a diplomat told SAM on condition of anonymity. It is the army commander who is calling the shots, he added.
The civilian government and the army are in a power sharing arrangement, established by the Constitution drawn up by the previous military regime, before they stood down. Under the constitution, the military appoints 25 percent of MPs in both houses in the national parliament and all 14 regional assemblies. The army appoints one of the 3 vice presidents, and three ministers in the Cabinet – Border and Home Affairs and the Defense minister – including the police.
“With its control over the three key power ministries, the Tatmadaw [the Myanmar military] and it’s minions in the GAD [General Administration Department – the local bureaucratic administration] are running rings around the National League for Democracy’s chief ministers, who find themselves ‘home alone’, cut out of decisions and relegated to ribbon cutting ceremonies” said long-time Myanmar observer, and regional head of the Human Rights Watch, Phil Robertson.
This is certainly the case in Rakhine, where the local NLD administration is close to the military and the hardline local politicians of the Arakan National Party, whose outlook is distinctly anti-Muslim. Inside Rakhine State, the local Buddhist population is even more hostile. Conflict between them and the Rohingya — who they refer to as Bengalis — goes back many decades. This discrimination dates back to before Independence.
In fact much of the looting and burning of Rohingya homes, is actually carried out by Rakhine villagers, who accompany the police and military on their “clearance operations”.
Much of the Myanmar population agrees with the official view that they are not citizens of Myanmar, but illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, even though many Rohingya families have been in the country for generations.
This has left Aung San Suu Kyi in an impossible position in terms of public opinion – she cannot be seen to openly support the Rakhine Muslims, for fear of alienating the majority of the country’s dominant Myanmar ethnic groups – the Bamar. This antipathy has intensified after the attacks by the Arakan Rohingya Solidarity Army (ARSA) last October and again in August.
So instead of using her moral authority, she remained silent on the issue, as far back as the first contemporary outbreak of violence in 2012. Now she has the added complication of having to work with the army. After the election, the two leaders had to find ways to work together. She had the mandate, the generals the real power.
“Since the very first days of the NLD government the two real leaders – the Lady and the General — have had a clear understandings on how they should work together,” said a former senior military officer. “It’s a mutual recognition of their de facto leadership: Min Aung Hlaing leads in security matters and Aung San Suu Kyi the rest,” he explained.
The problem is that there is no arena for the two to discuss overlapping concerns as with the current situation in Rakhine. The National Defense and Security Council is the only meeting ground, but the military holds the numbers: six out of 11 seats are military appointees. But the NDSC also has the power to suspend democratic government. Aung San Suu Kyi is loath to call it for fear she will loose the upper hand.
The NDSC has never met during the NLD government, according to senior government officials. Although there has been two quasi meetings on Rakhine – one last October and the other shortly after the ARSA attacks. The other reason the Lady is resisting calling such a meeting is Senior General Min Aung Hlaing’s term of office is due up shortly – and the only place a formal extension can be agreed is at the NDSC. He wants an extension till 2020. And Aung San Suu Kyi, according to government insiders, wants to avoid a confrontation on this issue – at least for the time being.
http://southasianmonitor.com/2017/09/18/lady-caught-rock-hard-place/
Geo-politics behind India’s U-turn on Rohingyas
P K Balachandran, September 16, 2017
Geo-politics appears to be behind India’s U-turn on Rohingyas. On Thursday, New Delhi swung from voicing unreserved support to Aung San Suu Kyi’s tough militaristic policy on the Bengali-speaking Muslim community to strongly approving Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s view that continued military action by Myanmar against the Rohingyas will destabilize Bangladesh economically and politically with grave implications for the entire region.
From wholeheartedly endorsing Suu Kyi’s view that the Rohingya issue is essentially an Islamic terrorist plot with security implications for both Myanmar and India, New Delhi is now saying that international pressure will be brought on Suu Kyi to take a more “restrained” (humanitarian) and “mature” approach to the issue.
Late at night on Thursday, the Indian External Affairs Minister, Sushma Swaraj, rang up Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to say that India is pushing Myanmar both “bilaterally and multilaterally” to take back the refugees. According to Bangladeshi officials what India is saying is that Myanmar must stop atrocities against the Rohingyas and take the 400,000 displaced back.
India rushes aid
Earlier in the day, Indian High Commissioner in Bangladesh, Harsh Vardhan Shringla, handed over 53 tons of relief material to the Bangladesh authorities.
Sensing great disappointment with, and anger against India in Bangladesh, Shringla met Indian Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar in New Delhi on Wednesday and secured sanction for the supply of humanitarian assistance to the Rohingyas.
The supplies arrived Chittagong on Thursday and the Indian High Commissioner himself distributed the relief material among the displaced Rohingyas at Cox’sBazaar..
Preceding this, last Saturday, the Bangladesh High Commissioner in New Delhi, Syed Muazzem Ali, had worked on Indian Foreign Office officials and secured a statement from South Block saying that Myanmar should approach the Rohingya issue with “restraint and maturity with focus on the welfare of the civilian population alongside those of the security forces”.
“It is imperative that violence is ended and normalcy in the state is restored expeditiously,” the Indian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Raveesh Kumar had said.
Indian High Commissioner in Dhaka, Shringla’s was then called to New Delhi urgently to brief the Foreign Office in South Block. The security-conscious officials at the Home Ministry in North Block were also briefed as, after all, it was the Deputy Home Minister, Kiren Rijiju, who had declared the 40,000 Rohingya refugees in India are “illegal immigrants” who ought to be thrown out.
Reasons behind change
While the immediate reason for the policy change can be attributed to diplomatic pressure from Bangladesh, there are deeper causes.
Although China continued to back Myanmar on the Rohingya issue, India felt isolated, with every country including its strategic ally, the United States, condemning Suu Kyi. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Chief, Prince Zeid, had also criticized the Indian government’s plans to deport Rohingyas.
A stage had been reached at which India had no option but to abandon its policy of copying China in every sphere in a bid to outdo it. It had to take an independent stand based on a cool calculation of its own interests.
If New Delhi failed to back Bangladesh’s plea that if Myanmar did not stop military action and take back the Rohingyas Bangladesh would be under tremendous economic strain, the consequences to India itself would be multifarious and highly detrimental.
And if the Bangladeshi economy were to break down, the common Bangladeshi would blame India for it. That would go against the India-friendly Sheikh Hasina in the next Bangladeshi parliamentary elections.
Bangladeshi Islamic militants, who are now kept on a leash by strong police action, will gain popular support to the detriment of Hasina’s Awami League and to the advantage of the not-so-India- friendly Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).
Sheikh Hasina herself might go easy on the Islamic militants to retain public support. She may have no incentive to take stern action against Indian Jehadists seeking shelter in Bangladesh. Indo-Bangla security cooperation, which has been working well for India so far, might be a thing of the past.
And finally, Rohingyas, now pouring into Bangladesh, may spill over into India (as they are already doing) and cause communal tension in West Bengal, ruled by the anti-Modi Chief Minister Mamata Banerji.
In short, a problem in distant Myanmar might become a domestic headache for the government of India and the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Economic stakes in Myanmar
Furthermore, India’s ambitious economic projects in Myanmar, like the deep-water port in Sittwe and the road linking Mizoram in India with Thailand passes through the now troubled North Myamnar. Sittwe is in Rakhine State – the home of the Rohingyas.
These projects, taken up to counter growing Chinese influence over Myanmar, will grind to a halt if the area continues to be restive and violence-ridden.
http://southasianmonitor.com/2017/09/16/geo-politics-behind-indias-u-turn-rohingyas/
Where is Myanmar? What is Going on There?
Where is Myanmar?
The Republic of the Union of Myanmar, previously known as Burma, is located in south east Asia. It is bordered by Thailand in the southeast, Laos in the east, China in the north and northeast, India to the northwest, Bangladesh to the west, and the Bay of Bengal in the south. The capital of Myanmar is Naypyidaw, and the majority in the country practice Theravada Buddhism.
The history of Myanmar is marked by turbulent strife – first against British colonial rule, then against the military junta, and then the civil war that has been fought between the various ethnic groups that form the country. More recently, in 2015 democratic elections were held after two decades, and a popular government installed. The recent Rohingya crisis has once again cast a shadow over the country.
Who are the Rohingya?
The Rohingya are a minority ethnic community that live in Myanmar, but are not recognized by the government as indigenous Myanmar citizens. As of 2015, about 1.1 million Sunni Islam practicing Rohingya Muslims were living in the state of Rakhine (in the country of Myanmar). The ethnic violence in Myanmar stems from this dispute. The government of Myanmar claims that the community entered the country from Bangladesh during the British colonial rule and is still living on as a refugee community. Bangladesh, on the other hand, claims that the Rohingya are not Bangladeshi since they have lived in Myanmar for over six centuries now. This leaves the community largely stateless.
The Rohingya community (in Myanmar) lives in a state of abject poverty. The living conditions are dismal, and as a group, they have minimal civil rights. The community has no access to healthcare or education, and cannot marry outside the community. The Rohingya Muslims of Myanmar have been facing systemic discrimination, gross human rights violations, and abuse.
Violent attacks against members of the Rohingya community are very common, according to the UN. Waves of violence often erupt and hundreds are killed or injured. So much so, that over the years these attacks are being considered a form of ‘ethnic cleansing,’ and a government sanctioned genocide.
What is the recent crisis?
Last year, a group of militants from the Rohingya community mounted an armed attack on numerous Myanmar border outposts. In response, the state’s army attacked and killed hundreds of young boys and men. Women were raped, and thousands were forced to flee. This year again, the militants from the community attacked military bases, and the Myanmar forces responded furiously, destroying over 80 villages and killing hundreds of civilians. News reports suggest that the Myanmar government has now restricted food and water to the Rakhine state as well.
Some 370,000 Rohingya have fled their homes over the past years and sought refuge in the neighboring country of Bangladesh. Furthermore, there are about 40,000 Rohingya refugees in India. Both Bangladesh and India are not interested in letting the refugees stay on indefinitely and want Myanmar to take them back.
Aung San Suu Kyi, the State Counsellor, is the head of the elected government but does not control the military. To date, Suu Kyi has been unwilling to denounce this treatment of the Rohingya for fear of losing the support of the Buddhist majority and the powerful military. Aung San Suu Kyi is a Nobel Peace Prize awardee and her silence is drawing serious flak from all over the world.
The United Nations Security Council has strongly condemned the violence against civilian in Myanmar and has asked the country to ensure that peace is restored and the safety of the Rohingya ensured. As yet, the crisis remains unresolved.
Related Maps:
Myanmar map
Bangladesh map
India map
Largest Muslim Population Countries