Robotics Revolution is Hyped

[Bussard Ramjet]

Foxconn said in 2010 that it will be employing a million robots on its assembly lines by 2014. Only that NEVER happened.

Assembly is still done via low wage laborers. Read the below article to get apprised of the situation.


http://www.scmp.com/business/articl...tion-alarmists-who-say-robots-are-taking-over

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

@AndrewJin @Three_Kingdoms @Mista @Chinese Bamboo @cirr

 

[Mista]

Foxconn said in 2010 that it will be employing a million robots on its assembly lines by 2014. Only that NEVER happened.

Assembly is still done via low wage laborers. Read the below article to get apprised of the situation.


http://www.scmp.com/business/articl...tion-alarmists-who-say-robots-are-taking-over

Never?

From the same source you posted, Foxconn reduced its employee strength from 110,000 to 50,000 with automation in just ONE factory.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/econ...-60000-workers-culled-just-one-factory-chinas

 

[Beast]

Never?

From the same source you posted, Foxconn reduced its employee strength from 110,000 to 50,000 with automation in just ONE factory.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/econ...-60000-workers-culled-just-one-factory-chinas

This is called selective posting by some members with an agenda.

 

[Mista]

“There are things that humans can do better than robots, but they are getting less and less.”

China’s technological transformation still has far to go — the country has just 36 robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers, compared with 292 in Germany, 314 in Japan and 478 in South Korea. But it is already changing the face of the global manufacturing industry. In the process, it is raising broader questions: can emerging economies still hope to follow the traditional route to prosperity that the developed world has relied upon since Britain’s industrial revolution in the 18th century? Or will robots assume many of the jobs that once pulled hundreds of millions out of poverty?

But the benefits of the robot revolution will not be shared equally across the world. Developing countries from India to Indonesia and Egypt to Ethiopia have long hoped to follow the example of China, as well as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan before them: stimulating job creation and economic growth by moving agricultural workers into low-cost factories to make goods for export.

Yet the rise of automation means that industrialisation is likely to generate significantly fewer jobs for the next generation of emerging economies. “Today’s low-income countries will not have the same possibility of achieving rapid growth by shifting workers from farms to higher-paying factory jobs,” researchers from the US investment bank Citi and the University of Oxford concluded.

Tom Lembong, Indonesia’s 45-year-old trade minister, and a leading voice for liberalisation and reform within the government of Southeast Asia’s biggest economy, is aware of the risks. “Many people don’t realise we’re seeing a quantum leap in robotics,” he says. “It’s a huge concern and we need to acknowledge the looming threat of this new industrial revolution. But as a political and business elite, we’re still stuck on debates about industrialisation that were settled in the 20th and even 19th centuries.”

Rodrik believes the country will never be able to grow at the kind of rapid rate experienced by China or South Korea. “Traditionally, manufacturing required very few skills and employed a lot of people,” he says. “Because of automation, the skills required have increased significantly and many fewer people are employed to run factories. What do you do with these extra workers? They won’t turn into IT entrepreneurs or entertainers; and, if they become restaurant workers, they will be paid much less than in a factory.” The spread of robots makes it much harder for developing countries to get on the “escalator” of economic growth, he argues.

Boston Consulting Group forecasts that the percentage of tasks handled by advanced robots will rise from 8 per cent today to 26 per cent by the end of the decade, driven by China, Germany, Japan, South Korea and the US, which together will account for 80 per cent of robot purchases. Sirkin at BCG says that the rapid expansion of automation could be compared to the difference between the “human learning curve” and Moore’s Law, which posited that computing power could double every 18 months to two years. “Even if you’re very good, humans can only double their productivity at best every 10 years,” he says. In contrast, researchers can push robots to double their productivity every four years, he estimates. “Compounded over time, that makes a big difference.”

https://next.ft.com/content/1dbd8c60-0cc6-11e6-ad80-67655613c2d6

Like I said, automation only gained traction recently. It will continue to develop exponentially and be more cost competitive over the years.

 

[AndrewJin]

Never?

From the same source you posted, Foxconn reduced its employee strength from 110,000 to 50,000 with automation in just ONE factory.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/econ...-60000-workers-culled-just-one-factory-chinas

Automation is cutting jobs in developing countries.
To a lot of low-IQ people, it's a disaster.
U don't have brain, you will be jobless.
History is cruel, it will fail a lot of people, it will fail a lot of countries where people have no clue about what's going on in this world.

 

[Mista]

India’s largely uneducated labor force and broken educational system aren’t ready for the more complex jobs that workers need when their low-skilled roles are taken over by machines. Meanwhile, nations employing robots more quickly, such as China, are becoming even more competitive.

“The need for unskilled labor is beginning to diminish,” Akhilesh Tilotia, head of thematic research at Kotak Institutional Equities in Mumbai and author of a book on India’s demographic impact. “Whatever education we’re putting in and whatever skill development we’re potentially trying to put out - - does it match where the industry will potentially be five to 10 years hence? That linkage is reasonably broken in India.”

That demographic dividend may not pay out as expected. For one, India’s working-age population is increasing far faster than the number of jobs in the formal sector: roughly 1 million a month versus 1 million a year, according to a report by JustJobs Network, a labor research institute. It’s also not clear if factories planned today will create the number and type of jobs that Modi is expecting.

“If you build a factory today assuming that it will create 100 jobs, in the course of 10 years as new technologies are adopted, it may create only 10 or 20 percent of the jobs you expected,” said Makoto Yokoyama, the head of Mitsubishi Electric Corp.’s factory automation division in India, who has witnessed Japan’s car plants employ fewer and fewer workers.

“It’d be a lie to say that robots won’t steal jobs,” said Sonali Kulkarni, who heads the India unit of Fanuc Corp., one of the world’s biggest robot makers. “They will, but not the jobs that people should be aspiring to. People are capable of really a lot more than mindlessly loading or unloading from a machine or welding.”

Yet India is failing to educate its illiterate 287 million -- greater than the population of every other country except China and the U.S. -- to do much more than that.

Tharman Shanmugaratnam, chairman of the International Monetary Fund’s policy advisory committee until March and Singapore’s finance minister, gives India -- and rivals such as Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia -- a fast-closing window to catch up with rich countries or miss the boat.

“Time is not on India’s side,” he told Indian policymakers at a government conference in December. “I give 10 years for labor-intensive manufacturing to survive in its present form before machines take over.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...on-undercuts-modi-s-quest-to-put-poor-to-work

You can read the full article if you have the time.

 

[empirefighter]

Automation is a disaster for developing countries which donot have money and technology，they only have low educated human resource. Luckily，China make good use of the chance which the automation still in primitive period in the past decades，today，the automation is becoming maturer，the chance window of East Asian model is closing for other developing countries.

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

China is world's factory and will remain so.

With low end manufacturing moving to SE asia along with the Chinese factories.

The integeration of SE asian economy as part of supply chain is almost complete. That is why we see them doinng their best not to offend China.

This is the region where global manufacturing is going to remain. Other region missed the boat a couple decades ago.

The automation and extensive use of robotics is just beginning in China. As China moves up the value chain and work force becomes more adaptive/skilled, SE asia will profit from labour intensive industries.

So the article and its posters is just entertaining a wishful thinking with ill intent.

Must be doing something better with his life.

 

[AndrewJin]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...on-undercuts-modi-s-quest-to-put-poor-to-work

You can read the full article if you have the time.

Thanks for the link.

Quotes

India can use the help. Labor productivity in Indian factories is the worst among major economies, according to a report by the Boston Consulting Group and the Confederation of Indian Industry. Brazilians, who ranked second to last, are still three times more productive than Indian workers.

Robot installations in India grew 23 percent in 2013 from the previous year, with annual sales hitting a record 1,900, the latest figures available from the International Federation of Robotics. That’s just a fraction of China. About 56,000 units were sold last year alone in the world’s biggest robot market, where factories including iPhone producer Foxconn Technology Group are helping China keep its manufacturing edge against lower-wage rivals.

For one, India’s working-age population is increasing far faster than the number of jobs in the formal sector: roughly 1 million a month versus 1 million a year, according to a report by JustJobs Network, a labor research institute.

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

Thanks for the link.

Quotes

India can use the help. Labor productivity in Indian factories is the worst among major economies, according to a report by the Boston Consulting Group and the Confederation of Indian Industry. Brazilians, who ranked second to last, are still three times more productive than Indian workers.

Robot installations in India grew 23 percent in 2013 from the previous year, with annual sales hitting a record 1,900, the latest figures available from the International Federation of Robotics. That’s just a fraction of China. About 56,000 units were sold last year alone in the world’s biggest robot market, where factories including iPhone producer Foxconn Technology Group are helping China keep its manufacturing edge against lower-wage rivals.

View attachment 322365

For one, India’s working-age population is increasing far faster than the number of jobs in the formal sector: roughly 1 million a month versus 1 million a year, according to a report by JustJobs Network, a labor research institute.

If the big words and great claims could change the destinies of states, then india would have become a glactic super power...

It beats reason to why every day such negative and anti-China things pop in this section. These people should worry less about China and make their own country a better place.

Anyhow, we need to learn to live with this. india could benefit greatly if it honestly join OBOR and become part of Community of Prosperity.

 

[AndrewJin]

He is a Kongress supporter.
He refused to accept the truth and acts as a hindrance to the Modi regime's make-in-India initiative.
So, according to this chemistry student in Mumbai (with a claim that he has talked with many top Chinese economists, Lmao), India should stick to primitive labor-intensive industries which can provide the most jobs when those jobs simply do not exist facing the ongoing technological revolution.

If the big words and great claims could change the destinies of states, then india would have become a glactic super power...

It beats reason to why every day such negative and anti-China things pop in this section. These people should worry less about China and make their own country a better place.

Anyhow, we need to learn to live with this. india could benefit greatly if it honestly join OBOR and become part of Community of Prosperity.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

He is a Kongress supporter.
He refused to accept the truth and acts as a hindrance to the Modi regime's make-in-India initiative.
So, according to this chemistry student in Mumbai (with a claim that he has talked with many top Chinese economists, Lmao), India should stick to primitive labor-intensive industries which can provide the most jobs when those jobs simply do not exist facing the ongoing technological revolution.

All of this is incorrect.

Neither am I a Congress supporter, nor a hindrance to Modi's plans.

Nor am I a student in Chemistry. Nor did I say that I have talked to many "top" Chinese economists. I have talked to many Chinese economists though.

Also, the so called "primitive" jobs are one of the least ammenable to automation. Like for example apparel making. Things like sewing etc. are not at all done by robots, nor is it likely to be done by them in the next 20 years.

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

He is a Kongress supporter.
He refused to accept the truth and acts as a hindrance to the Modi regime's make-in-India initiative.
So, according to this chemistry student in Mumbai (with a claim that he has talked with many top Chinese economists, Lmao), India should stick to primitive labor-intensive industries which can provide the most jobs when those jobs simply do not exist facing the ongoing technological revolution.

Not even a Taoist can understand the indian mind. It is too vast.

Whatever makes them happy, I would say.

China is focusing on the second phase of national development.

This offers a win-win opportunity to india as well to join in and accelerate its own development.

 

[AndrewJin]

All of this is incorrect.

Neither am I a Congress supporter, nor a hindrance to Modi's plans.

Nor am I a student in Chemistry. Nor did I say that I have talked to many "top" Chinese economists. I have talked to many Chinese economists though.

Also, the so called "primitive" jobs are one of the least ammenable to automation. Like for example apparel making. Things like sewing etc. are not at all done by robots, nor is it likely to be done by them in the next 20 years.

Your compatriots with MBA get 10000 rupees per month....Come here to be a toilet cleaner, can get several times of that salary. And it's not some low caste jobs in East Asia. You are also advised to quit your chemistry engineering course....No future