Road ahead for the Talis looks grimmer

[A-Team]

So the US and NATO forces will remain in Afghanistan until the job is done meaning 2017 and beyond, the US will provide funding and training for the ANSF even beyond 2017, I wonder where this leaves the Talis ??

2015 is over the winter is sitting in and Afghanistan is getting colder, Talis have nothing to shows for the entire year except for being trapped in Kunduz and losing over 500 foot soldiers. There is a thinking emerging in the security circles in Kabul that there is no need for negotiations with the Talis anymore, the NUG and the ANSF can tough this one out with very strong international support, massive internal support from the people and instituations that are getting stronger by the day.

I wonder where this leaves the Talis and their backers? !!!

 

[Donatello]

2015 or 2017......US is going to leave.

They couldn't come up with a viable plan in the last 12 years of occupation of the country, what makes you think Americans staying couple of more years will make any difference at all?

 

[Indika]

So the US and NATO forces will remain in Afghanistan until the job is done meaning 2017 and beyond, the US will provide funding and training for the ANSF even beyond 2017, I wonder where this leaves the Talis ??

2015 is over the winter is sitting in and Afghanistan is getting colder, Talis have nothing to shows for the entire year except for being trapped in Kunduz and losing over 500 foot soldiers. There is a thinking emerging in the security circles in Kabul that there is no need for negotiations with the Talis anymore, the NUG and the ANSF can tough this one out with very strong international support, massive internal support from the people and instituations that are getting stronger by the day.

I wonder where this leaves the Talis and their backers? !!!

Talis cannot run the country , they will only run it down. The whole idea of Talis is to keep afghanistan destabilized, they are simply doing that. Unless the Talis attempt to take over their masters ,the support is going to continue.
The problem is Talis backers have tasted success once and they will eternally dream of doing the same.

Unless afghanistan makes the cost of backing talis very high for their backers they will not go away.

 

[OTTOMAN]

So the US and NATO forces will remain in Afghanistan until the job is done meaning 2017 and beyond, the US will provide funding and training for the ANSF even beyond 2017, I wonder where this leaves the Talis ??

2015 is over the winter is sitting in and Afghanistan is getting colder, Talis have nothing to shows for the entire year except for being trapped in Kunduz and losing over 500 foot soldiers. There is a thinking emerging in the security circles in Kabul that there is no need for negotiations with the Talis anymore, the NUG and the ANSF can tough this one out with very strong international support, massive internal support from the people and instituations that are getting stronger by the day.

I wonder where this leaves the Talis and their backers? !!!

Yes... because they have break down in their weapon manufacturing unit.
Perhaps ran out of Diesel.
Pakistan should also chip in by blocking the oil getting transit through Pakistan.

 

[Stannis Baratheon]

And with US forces at Afghanistan the Taliban are still taking over more and more territory everyday. What makes you think that they can survive the US led NATO assault against them but not Afghan government and a few thousand coalition forces who would mostly stay at Kabul and train troops!

 

[OTTOMAN]

And with US forces at Afghanistan the Taliban are still taking over more and more territory everyday. What makes you think that they can survive the US led NATO assault against them but not Afghan government and a few thousand coalition forces who would mostly stay at Kabul and train troops!

At least some one thinking logically

We will not believe any news of Taliban victories, unless we are detailed on how they survived carpet bombing and Northern Alliance's follow-up massacre.
If for sake of argument we say handful of them did survive, than how come few oldmen tookover entire city?
Not even US and NATO combined, were ever able to control a single Kabul during all of their stay.
Assuming US have drone technology available at its service than they should at least film the battalions of Taliban, from safe distant and at least have captured few hundred by today and presented them to neutral media.
Last but not least... virtual Talis with all their might, fright and fight have never harmed a single Indian in Afghanistan!
We also know that Isis and death brigades, also doesn't harm Indian workers in Iraq.

 

[Rasengan]

Intense fighting has occurred in Baba Jee area of Helmand and CDR Asif Khan was killed yesterday. Brother A-Team presumes quite naively that the Taliban will disintegrate, just because the American's have decided to prolong their stay in Kabul. The Afghan National Security Force is a rental Army and once the exchequer runs out of money then the desertion rate will double in size. If the world's only superpower could not destroy the Taliban in 14 years, then what hope does the rental Army have in the future

 

[ConcealCarry]

You analysis focuses on 2015~2017 and ANF training, for a wholesome picture and to get the correct answer you must look at the 2001~2015 period with the same training in addition to active fighting by US and NATO forces, where did that leave Tali's? if you knew how they think, you wouldn't be so optimistic. You must have heard their famous Tali saying, " they have weapons and technology, we have time" and they have proved it time and again........Afghanistan needs to change it's thinking, you need work with Pakistan to overcome this menace

So the US and NATO forces will remain in Afghanistan until the job is done meaning 2017 and beyond, the US will provide funding and training for the ANSF even beyond 2017, I wonder where this leaves the Talis ??

2015 is over the winter is sitting in and Afghanistan is getting colder, Talis have nothing to shows for the entire year except for being trapped in Kunduz and losing over 500 foot soldiers. There is a thinking emerging in the security circles in Kabul that there is no need for negotiations with the Talis anymore, the NUG and the ANSF can tough this one out with very strong international support, massive internal support from the people and instituations that are getting stronger by the day.

I wonder where this leaves the Talis and their backers? !!!

 

[Samandri]

A much smaller TTP reduced the Pakistan to helplessness and demoralization, while here we are talking about many times larger organization, Afghan-Taliban up against a newbie army which is not yet properly trained and lacks professionalism and enough experience. The ratio between state army and guerrilla insurgents should be very large, but its not enough between ANA and Taliban. For example Pakistan threw more than 60 thousand troops against few thousands TTP fighters in NW in zarb-e-azab, so that ratio between TTP and Pak army was around 1: 30. For very small tract of FATA, 27000 sq.km, Pakistan has stationed more than 150,000 troops in addition to more than 70 thousands FC. While newly assembled ANA is barely reaching 200,000 figure with very high desertion rate.This small army is given task of controlling area-wise very large country. Bravado is good if it helps morale but the fact is ANA wont be able to curb Taliban insurgency. Terrorism , ambushes and IED blasts are easy but preventing them is very difficult task. Availability of American air strikes is essential for keeping Taliban at bay from the cities. Local volunteers for defense purpose against Taliban, which we call "chagha" in Pashtunwali, must be utilized on village level. Villagers should be armed.

2015 is over the winter is sitting in and Afghanistan is getting colder, Talis have nothing to shows for the entire year except for being trapped in Kunduz and losing over 500 foot soldiers.

It might be, this time Afghan-Taliban would show large activity in winter and wont remain relatively dormant as they were in previous winters. Kunduz episode has obviously boosted their morale. Now they believe they can capture cities. They were hasty in their attempt of capturing city and didnt wait for full withdrawal of American forces.

Fanatics are dangerous because they have no regard for their worthless lives. killing large numbers of them is not effective as they run on the basis of ideology and killed ones are replaceable with fresh recruits. Pakistan , according to ISPR , has killed around 30 thousand TTP fighters since 2007 but started gaining ground only after denying them the space to operate. NW and Tirah were the last operating spaces for TTP in Pakistan, now due to operations in those areas, TTP activity has declined significantly. On the other hand , a very large space is available to Afghan Taliban not only in rural Afghanistan but also in Pakistan. In all the provinces around Kabul, Taliban have shadow governments. Situation is quite worse there if what i am reading is true and not media hype.