Rise of Pakistan just a matter of time - Morgan Stanley

[Cortana]

Shift in focus: Rise of Pakistan just a matter of time, says Morgan Stanley

By Our Correspondent
Published: January 28, 2015


KARACHI: Pakistan is located in a region that will bring major changes in the world economy in coming decades primarily due to its demographics.

With over 100 million people below the age of 30 aspiring to change their lives, the rise of Pakistan is just a matter of time, Morgan Stanley Chief Investment Strategist David M Darst said on Tuesday.

“Demographics will play a major role in coming decades. Pakistan is among those nine countries in Asia that will add another China in the next 35 years and the impact of this change will be phenomenal on the world economy,” he said while giving a lecture on “The World Economic Environment: Where’s the Global Capital Going”.

It was part of a special series of lectures that was organised by The Aga Khan University here at its auditorium.With a young population of an average age of 22 years, “I believe the opportunities that the young entrepreneurs from Pakistan have are going to make an exceptional contribution to the economy of the region,” he added. Darst, who is the author of 11 books and has a PhD in economics from Yale, said it is wrong to believe that Pakistan is lagging behind due to its proximity with Afghanistan, Iran and India. “In fact, I believe Pakistan is in the centre of Asian countries like Iran, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Indonesia that will significantly contribute in the world economy in coming decades.”

Speaking about the strong fundamentals of Pakistan’s stocks, he said, with 31% returns in dollar terms Pakistan led the world markets in 2014. “What is important is that the stocks in Pakistan are still very cheap compared to the markets in the industrialised world and they are performing better than many markets in terms of returns,” he added. “I am surprised to see low number of investors in the bourses of Pakistan. This must change considering the strong fundamentals of Pakistani stocks.”

Darst said women in the world are playing an important role in today’s world economy. The rise of the entrepreneurs from the developing world, especially women entrepreneurs, will also bring significant positive changes in this century. Listing down the challenges to the global economy, he said though Pakistan and India have benefitted from the current sharp decline in oil prices, sudden fall in oil prices has rejuvenated fears of deflation in many countries.

He said Europe is redefining itself and the sharp changes in Europe can surprise the world at large. Speaking on the challenges facing Europe in relation to Greece, he said the new elected prime minister of Greece could take decisions that may not go well with the euro and the overall economy of the continent.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 28th, 2015.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/828679/s...organ-stanley/

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

Too big to fail. Gen Musharraf era showed how good governance and leadership can take a country forward. Shame that the same old crooks replaced him. Real challenge will be formalizing the informal sector increasing tax base (to the govt's credit, that has gone up somewhat), aggressive privatization efforts, maintaining a health reserves position (to ease investor confidence), and also finding a way to provide incentives for talented overseas Pakistanis to come home to Pakistan to contribute. Some of these are long-term goals but they can be done

to bring in foreign investment (FDI, portfolio investment etc.) -- the main impediment will be security....that perception/fear will also take time to improve. This is where good governance and a properly functioning judiciary would be needed

 

[Thəorətic Muslim]

Shame that the same old crooks replaced him. Real challenge will be formalizing the informal sector increasing tax base (to the govt's credit, that has gone up somewhat), aggressive privatization efforts, maintaining a health reserves position (to ease investor confidence), and also finding a way to provide incentives for talented overseas Pakistanis to come home to Pakistan to contribute. Some of these are long-term goals but they can be done

Shame Pakistanis decided to elect someone so they'll feel less sad his wife died.

1. Education Reform
2. Land Reform
3. Tax Reform
4. Special Exclusive Zones just zone them, corporations will come
5. Restructure Police
6. Restructure Political Parties
   1. No more shut-downs.
   2. No more overseas political offices
   3. Crackdown on people who buy votes
7. Crackdown on "Madrassas"
8. Get people who know how to do stuff to run State Industries
   1. Former Chinese Rail Minster to take over Pakistan Railways
   2. Former CathyAirways CEO takes over PIA
   3. Former Dubai Ports CFO to run Karachi

Drop the Superiority Complex, just because you got nukes doesn't mean your a big shot.

 

[Cortana]

Drop the Superiority Complex, just because you got nukes doesn't mean your a big shot.

Indian fan under the Us flag these days you people dont like the flag of india that is why you put the flag of usa now great ......
seems like the bhoot of Darinda Modi entered your body now

 

[Thəorətic Muslim]

Indian fan under the Us flag these days you people dont like the flag of india that is why you put the flag of usa now great ......
seems like the bhoot of Darinda Modi entered your body now

Pakistani-American. A simple review of my posts would have sufficed.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

Shame Pakistanis decided to elect someone so they'll feel less sad his wife died.

1. Education Reform
2. Land Reform
3. Tax Reform
4. Special Exclusive Zones just zone them, corporations will come
5. Restructure Police
6. Restructure Political Parties
   1. No more shut-downs.
   2. No more overseas political offices
   3. Crackdown on people who buy votes
7. Crackdown on "Madrassas"
8. Get people who know how to do stuff to run State Industries
   1. Former Chinese Rail Minster to take over Pakistan Railways
   2. Former CathyAirways CEO takes over PIA
   3. Former Dubai Ports CFO to run Karachi

Drop the Superiority Complex, just because you got nukes doesn't mean your a big shot.

I like the way you think though i disagree on just 2 things:

a.) Railways cant be run properly if the right software is in place - hardware is fine. Software (i.e. the management) is lacking.....however Railways is now a profitable entity, there have been some much needed reforms

b.) PIA - same logic applies. But it should be 100% PRIVATIZED. Fire non-essential staff (a huge number!)

c.) On Karachi (or Gwadar) Ports - Dubai should have nothing to do with it. Major conflict of interest.

Drop the Superiority Complex, just because you got nukes doesn't mean your a big shot.

only the jingoists do that....nuclear weapons are merely a deterrent but nothing to do with economic development or reforms

 

[OTTOMAN]

I like the way you think though i disagree on just 2 things:

a.) Railways cant be run properly if the right software is in place - hardware is fine. Software (i.e. the management) is lacking.....however Railways is now a profitable entity, there have been some much needed reforms

b.) PIA - same logic applies. But it should be 100% PRIVATIZED. Fire non-essential staff (a huge number!)

c.) On Karachi (or Gwadar) Ports - Dubai should have nothing to do with it. Major conflict of interest.



only the jingoists do that....nuclear weapons are merely a deterrent but nothing to do with economic development or reforms

In my view its lack of planning, railway and PIA are beyond fix and reason being the hardware.
Still if i have to narrow down to one responsible than its democracy.
Let's thanks to Imran Khan, Hamid Mir, Asma Jehangir & Iftikhar Chaudary.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

In my view its lack of planning, railway and PIA are beyond fix and reason being the hardware.
Still if i have to narrow down to one responsible than its democracy.
Let's thanks to Imran Khan, Hamid Mir, Asma Jehangir & Iftikhar Chaudary.

i'd blame the sham interpretation of democracy, not the concept

i believe PIA and Railways can be fixed but requires mentality change.....and cultural change

when people suck at their jobs in Pakistan they should be fired or have the manhood and courage to resign. I dont see that happening in the short-term

 

[OTTOMAN]

i believe PIA and Railways can be fixed but requires mentality change.....and cultural change

both need new hardware and regulations.
old hardware and regulations should be gifted to Ittefaq foundary.

just with change of mentality and SW... I personally won´t ride any.

 

[El Weirdo]

Pakistani-American. A simple review of my posts would have sufficed.

Leave him alone mate , Hes more Pakistani , than Pakistanis themselves..a wannabe , aint it @Cortana ..

 

[kamrananvaar]

both need new hardware and regulations.
old hardware and regulations should be gifted to Ittefaq foundary.

just with change of mentality and SW...i´ll personally won´t ride any.

No they donot need to change their hardware , in case of railways ,have a look at india's railways in particular the luxury trains of India. The Palace on Wheels, the Royal Orient and the Toy Trains are the pride of Indian Railways, the largest passenger train service in the world.

The train tourism in India has actually done wonders bringing to life the concept of 'live life king-size'
And pakistan is a poor country , u cant just throw away everything and get a new train , pakistan railways is corrupt from top to bottom . Nawaz shareef gave one of the oldest steam engines in the world to british museum for free to try and appease his masters . Pakistan railways has a workshop outside lahore which is not being used . What do the mechanics do there . If they dont work , fire them . This mentallity that u cant b fired in govt job has to go.
Just my 50 cents eg they have 6 engines broke , instead of waiting for spare parts to arrive why not salvage 4 of the engines . What gunja and co is doing is just buy new get comission

 

[Kompromat]

We are too stubborn to die and too big to fail. In the last 10,000 years of recorded history of our land, this is the first time that we wield the power to obliterate our enemies. We are a land which has been invaded countless times by countless nations. Our forefathers had axes and sticks in 1965, but they made sure that our generation has thermonuclear weapons and world's sixth largest standing army and a promising economy. How can we translate that sense of security from foreign invasions into economic growth?

1: Stability in both Pakistan and Afghanistan
2: Education on a mass level
3: Infrastructure to connect ourselves with Arab, African, Iranian, Chinese and Central Asia markets all the way to Russia and Turkey. Infrastructure also includes fast means of telecom including fast internet.

4: Invest in research and development and continue industrialization, adopt advanced agricultural technology to boost our food production to maintain our food security and to develop our institutions, develop more smaller provinces, reduce corruption and adopt electronic govt.

This is all we need to build the foundations of a country that actually works and attracts foreign direct investment. Pakistan's place is in the top 10 economies in the world. If we can achieve that or not will be judged by our decisions today and in the times to come.

 

[third eye]

Too big to fail. Gen Musharraf era showed how good governance and leadership can take a country forward. Shame that the same old crooks replaced him. Real challenge will be formalizing the informal sector increasing tax base (to the govt's credit, that has gone up somewhat), aggressive privatization efforts, maintaining a health reserves position (to ease investor confidence), and also finding a way to provide incentives for talented overseas Pakistanis to come home to Pakistan to contribute. Some of these are long-term goals but they can be done

to bring in foreign investment (FDI, portfolio investment etc.) -- the main impediment will be security....that perception/fear will also take time to improve. This is where good governance and a properly functioning judiciary would be needed

Being an Indian I am of the opinion that a stable, healthy & Vibrant Pakistan is in the best interests of my country.

My observation relates to the part highlighted above - Nothing is too big so as not to fail . USSR is an example.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

Leave him alone mate , Hes more Pakistani , than Pakistanis themselves..a wannabe , aint it @Cortana ..

says an expat indian himself why are you judging others did you met him or brush shoulders with him at some point...best to make informed comments

Being an Indian I am of the opinion that a stable, healthy & Vibrant Pakistan is in the best interests of my country.

My observation relates to the part highlighted above - Nothing is too big so as not to fail . USSR is an example.

Pakistan isnt the USSR and it has no expansionist/colonial designs. Pakistan is too big to fail and proof of that is Pakistan's economy growing even with 5 DEVASTATING years of Zardari/Peoples Party (our version of your Congress) + floods which inundated 1/3 of the country. We've recovered from all that. Pakistanis spend a lot of their earnings. Domestic consumption is high; private and service sector (e.g. real estate, IT, consulting services) doing quite well despite adversities like high over-head costs (due to things like the need for UPS/generators and fuel to offset energy shortages)

 

[Echo_419]

We are too stubborn to die and too big to fail. In the last 10,000 years of recorded history of our land, this is the first time that we wield the power to obliterate our enemies. We are a land which has been invaded countless times by countless nations. Our forefathers had axes and sticks in 1965, but they made sure that our generation has thermonuclear weapons and world's sixth largest standing army and a promising economy. How can we translate that sense of security from foreign invasions into economic growth?

1: Stability in both Pakistan and Afghanistan
2: Education on a mass level
3: Infrastructure to connect ourselves with Arab, African, Iranian, Chinese and Central Asia markets all the way to Russia and Turkey. Infrastructure also includes fast means of telecom including fast internet.

4: Invest in research and development and continue industrialization, adopt advanced agricultural technology to boost our food production to maintain our food security and to develop our institutions, develop more smaller provinces, reduce corruption and adopt electronic govt.

This is all we need to build the foundations of a country that actually works and attracts foreign direct investment. Pakistan's place is in the top 10 economies in the world. If we can achieve that or not will be judged by our decisions today and in the times to come.

Nothing is to big to fail,that being said a Stable Pakistan is in the interest of India