Repeating China's infrastructure miracle in other developing countries for high growth and high retu

[beijingwalker]

Repeating China's infrastructure miracle in other developing countries for high growth and high returns on investment
DECEMBER 20, 2013

The World needs a growth lifting strategy where there is a global initiative to provide bottleneck releasing infrastructure to the developing world where the returns will be greatest

China is the largest financier of Africa’s infrastructure, accounting for over 34% of infrastructure projects being implemented in Africa, higher than other donors
China has focused on “bottleneck-releasing” infrastructure by meeting the “unmet” demand from African governments.

The developing has an unmet need for at least $500 billion in infrastructure.

The wages of China's workers will probably go up to four times over the next ten years.

85 million jobs will likely migrate from China.

The migration of low wage work to Africa and other parts of Asia should provide industries and investment to lift up the poor in many countries.

A massive infrastructure buildout will lay a foundation and the new work will provide the demand to bootstrap a few hundred million people to global middle class.

Justin Lin advises China's leaders and has convinced them to integrate Africa into their supply chain

Justin Lin, former chief economist of the WorldBank and professor at Peking University, has recently been proffering ideas based on his extensive experience regarding Africa and research on China's development model.

"China should shift part of its labor-intensive industries to Africa to upgrade the country's economy to an advanced level and help trigger the continent's economic growth," says Lin, who was elected last month as a member of the Standing Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, China's political advisory body.

Following many visits to Africa since he began at the World Bank in 2008, Lin has urged the Chinese government to recognize the continent's advantage of abundant cheap labor and market potential as the cost of labor in China's manufacturing bases increases.

Lin says he has sent a team of researchers from Peking University on field trips to some African countries, and they had concluded that Beijing should consider integrating China and Africa in a business and supply chain.

Japan moved 8.7 million jobs abroad, while the Asian tigers transferred about 7 million. For China, the figure could be 80 million, he says, and Africa's transition to becoming an industrialized continent could be completed within 20 to 30 years.

Too much labor in Africa revolves around agriculture, Lin says. The transfer of Chinese manufacturing to Africa would increase efficiency and enable the local people to earn more and turn their earnings into capital for further growth, and it would be a sustainable model.

Net Foreign Direct Investment into Africa reached $40 billion in 2013

 

[Srinivas]

Infrastructure makes sense when the returns are good in that particular area, other wise these projects will only become some kind of GDP manipulation projects just like in some areas of China, these projects also lead to economic bubble.

Where there is potential there needs to be infrastructure, with out damaging the environment.

Using the existing infrastructure and building the required infra. by not disturbing the environment(going the green way) is the right solution to the problems china is facing right now like
1) water pollution,
2) air pollution
3) increase of toxic levels
4) people living like rats in the cities in cramped up apartments.
5) too much urbanization
6) sudden increase of wages

Infrastructure is not equal to development when the returns are not there.

 

[beijingwalker]

China's decade long manufacturing growth greatly owes to her pior huge investment in infrastructure,without those farsighted infrastructure investment,China's manufacturing sector can never grow this fast,sustain this long.

 

[kbd-raaf]

China's decade long manufacturing growth greatly owes to her pior huge investment in infrastructure,without those farsighted infrastructure investment,China's manufacturing sector can never grow this fast,sustain this long.

Agree completely.

China's GDP in 2004/05 was approximately the same as India's today. However it is now ~10T after phenomenal growth and I believe the primary driver for that growth was its investment in infrastructure in the 5 years preceding 2004/05.

India has no such luck.

 

[Srinivas]

China's decade long manufacturing growth greatly owes to her pior huge investment in infrastructure,without those farsighted infrastructure investment,China's manufacturing sector can never grow this fast,sustain this long.

The correct model is

1) spend gradually on infrastructure
2) spread the infra. throughout the country so that urbanization and congestion will reduce.
3) step 2 also stops sudden increase of wages.
4) Since this model keeps people where they are, pollution affects and scarcity of water also can be avoided.

Agree completely.

China's GDP in 2004/05 was approximately the same as India's today. However it is now ~10T after phenomenal growth and I believe the primary driver for that growth was its investment in infrastructure in the 5 years preceding 2004/05.

India has no such luck.

Yes.....Yes in 2004/2005 time period India has no luck !!!!

Still there a decade of time there to make such luck .......

 

[kbd-raaf]

The correct model is

1) spend gradually on infrastructure
2) spread the infra. throughout the country so that urbanization and congestion will reduce.
3) step 2 also stops sudden increase of wages.
4) Since this model keeps people where they are, pollution affects and scarcity of water also can be avoided.



Yes.....Yes in 2004/2005 time period India has no luck !!!!

Still there a decade of time there to make such luck .......

What? Have you seen India's infrastructure?

 

[Srinivas]

What? Have you seen India's infrastructure?

There are seven new cities planned between Delhi and Mumbai with the help of Japan, In south any infra which is close of port cities will do.

 

[sincity]

You want economy grown as all cost when you are poor, when you richer and afford to pay more attention to the environment then you can cut down your grown rate and reduce the option to have negative impact in environment. India don't have the luxury to meet population economy grown demand and meet the environment protection requirement, you need to sacrifice one or the other to achieve your goal.

 

[IND151]

The correct model is

1) spend gradually on infrastructure
2) spread the infra. throughout the country so that urbanization and congestion will reduce.
3) step 2 also stops sudden increase of wages.
4) Since this model keeps people where they are, pollution affects and scarcity of water also can be avoided.



Yes.....Yes in 2004/2005 time period India has no luck !!!!

Still there a decade of time there to make such luck .......

We need more medium size cities.

 

[Srinivas]

We need more medium size cities.

Exactly !!!

They will provide manufacturing output with minimum wages

 

[kbd-raaf]

There are seven new cities planned between Delhi and Mumbai with the help of Japan, In south any infra which is close of port cities will do.

Yes the DMIC and CBIC. They should have been done 10 years ago.

 

[saikumar]

China's decade long manufacturing growth greatly owes to her pior huge investment in infrastructure,without those farsighted infrastructure investment,China's manufacturing sector can never grow this fast,sustain this long.

right bro

 

[Contrarian]

Yes the DMIC and CBIC. They should have been done 10 years ago.

Better late than never.
Infra is improving in India slowly.