Japan flexes muscles
G V C Naidu
From a Chinese perspective, the disputes and fears of a rising China would enable Tokyo to shed its pacifist mask and rearm itself.
East Asia—otherwise known for its extraordinary economic dynamism, increasingly the world’s new center of gravity and the rise of new powers—has also begun to grab headlines due to intensifying feuds over unresolved maritime boundaries and disputed islands.
The attention is greater if China is involved. China is in the spotlight not merely because of its continued stellar economic performance and a formidable military that it is building, but equally because of its mounting assertiveness on what it claims are its territories but disputed by others. Expectedly that is sending ripple of anxiety across the region.
One of those issues is with respect to the Senkaku islets (China calls them Diaoyu) in the East China Sea south of Japanese Okinawa (where the United States has a large military base). These uninhabited islands are currently administered by Japan where some of them are privately owned and the others are with the government.
Whereas both China and Japan have resorted to history to bolster their claims, there is no dispute on the fact that Japan controlled the Senkaku archipelago since 1895 till its rout in the Second World War and subsequent occupation by the US. Under the 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty, the US ended its occupation but continued to administer the Ryukyu Islands under which came the Senkakus. Only at the time of their reversion by the US in 1971 to Japanese control did China raise its claims.
Yet, the dispute had remained largely dormant till recently notwithstanding sporadic incidents of China upping the tempo and some nationalist elements trying to land on the islands mostly unsuccessfully. The potentially large reserves of oil and gas in the vicinity of the Senkakus and their geostrategic location escalated the contest. A series of other incidents contributed to further hardening of positions with strong political overtones.
Contrary to the belief, in the case Northeast Asia strong economic bonds and rapidly rising interdependence have failed to shrug off the historical baggage partly because of its political utility: quite often both China and the two Koreas have used Japanese past military aggression for domestic political purposes. On the other, Japan has been ill at ease with the rise of a behemoth next door even while failing to arrest its own decline. It is making its discomfort obvious about the China’s rapid military buildup and a lack of transparency. It is further compounded by Chinese provocative activities in Japanese neighbourhood including repeated incursions by its nuclear submarines.
Three developments, among others, probably contributed to the present stepped up tensions. One, the US has been expressing strong views on China’s attitude in the South China Sea, promptly echoed by Japan, which have set the alarm bells ringing in Beijing about possible American attempts to contain China with Japan and others playing their part under US leadership. From a Chinese perspective, the disputes in the region in general and fears of a rising China would enable Tokyo to shed its pacifist mask and rearm itself.
Economic leverages
Two, a Chinese fishing trawler that entered the waters near Senkakus illegally in September 2010 and rammed two Japanese coastguard ships when they tried to shoo it away. The captain of the trawler was arrested and charged but let off after China’s strong protests. Besides unofficially cancelling certain scheduled high-level bilateral meetings with Japan, China also stopped exporting rare earth metals in retaliation (although it was illegal under the WTO rules). That was the first time Beijing was using its economic leverages to press Japan. The incident drew strong anti-Japanese protests virtually across major cities of China. Three, China probably must have been emboldened by visits in quick succession by prime minister Dmitry Medvedev to the Kurile Islands in July followed by a totally unexpected South Korean president Lee Myung-bak to the Takeshima Islands (Koreans call them as Dokdo) in early August. Japan has strong claims on both of them and expectedly led to a major outcry and condemnation.
Meanwhile, the rightwing Tokyo governor, Shintaro Ishihara, a known China-baiter, announced plans to purchase three of the five Senkaku islands from their private owners by collecting donations. That compelled the Japanese government to acquire them itself.
Amidst these developments, a fresh round of tensions was set off with the successful landing of some 14 Chinese nationalists on August 15 on one of the Senkaku Islands. Their subsequent arrest and deportation has elicited strong reactions from Beijing. A few days later, a large group of rightist Japanese also landed and planted Japanese flags triggering a fresh wave of anti-Japanese protests in China.
Surely, these incidents may not result in an imminent political or military showdown but will have considerable impact on both countries and since they are the two largest economies the rest of the region cannot escape from bearing the brunt. In a way Japan, despite its economic woes, will be forced to take certain key steps to review its security policies. It may even amend the contentious Article 9 of the constitution that prohibits Japan from acquiring offensive military capability. Unlike the past neutral stance, the US is now categorical that the Senkakus are covered by the US-Japan Security Treaty.
On the other hand, it is China that would be in a cleft stick at a time when top level leadership changes this fall. Beijing neither can allow tensions to heighten since they may prove to be counter-productive, nor can it risk losing its credibility by letting the current standoff to fizzle out. In any case, the cumulative effect of hardening of positions concerning maritime disputes will have considerable impact on the politico-security shape of East Asia in the coming years in which one may see a new Japan emerging.
(The writer teaches at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi)
