Taking war on enemy land is PA's best bet. Most Garrisons are close to the border.
War can be taken to Indian territory when there is a clear initiative in mind and a thorough follow up plan. For example, its not just about capturing a piece of land. The factors to be considered are if its just a cross road, a town, a strategic bridge or peak etc. Most importantly what is the next plan in place after capturing that point, is it to defended till the end of the conflict or is it a jumping point to continue an offensive towards a certain direction. The closer the captured point is to Pakistan border, the shorter will be supply route and ease in defending that point through timely reinforcements.
Previously, if one regiment has captured a certain area, that regiment was expected to hold the point indefinitely. This caused mass useless casualties. Imagine a point held by FF regiment 700 troops and enemy attacks that point with a brigade sized 2500-3500 troops, it will have following impacts:
1. The FF regiment may get surrounded from at least 3 sides.
2. The casualty rate will be high as its a 1:4 scenario approx.
3. Enemy can keep harassing the regiment wit h a brigade sized strength.
4. The regiment will need to retreat after it loses around 33% of troops, which doesn't usually happen because they fight to last man, still it depends. This is why we hear the whole posts were wiped out.
5. After retreat the regiment will become useless for the rest of the war unless reinforced.
Now a brigade vs brigade scenario will be very different. To counter a brigade, enemy may need to bring in 2 brigades or a whole division.
IMO, maneuvering an armoured division is not the core strength of any sub-continent general be it India or Pakistan. Imagine maneuvering a Strike Corps of armoured and mechanised divisions. Last time IA tried it in 2001/2 and we saw the result. Then the CSD was born, which is actually multiple brigade-sized groups attacking at various points till the IA Strike Corps gets into motion. The armour in sub continent is not used the way it should be.
PA strength is the 1st Armoured division with T-80 UD. This MBT has good armour, gun and range. The 6th Armoured is equipped with AZ. It packs a good punch and can take on any IA MBT with its main gun, but its a smaller tank no matter how much its modified. Its engine power and range will remain less. AK is deployed in armoured brigades in V-Corps. To make an impact, it should be fully inducted in an armoured division.
Next issue, PA armoured division is smaller than IA armoured Division. Why? many reasons. Ease of logistics for a 5-regiment division instead of a 7 or 9 regiment division, which means division requires less artillery, less air defence, less Supply and Transport assets. That's almost 220 MBT, 54 SP Artillery guns, 54 SP Air defence systems. The infantry is provided through sister Mechanised division, which has 50 APC in at least 6 of its 9 regiments, giving minimum support of 300 APC's. Rest of regiments can be completely motorised if not mechanised.
Now dont think that PA will send 220 MBT, 300 APC and rest of entourage in battle. PA and IA both will save these assets (armoured divisions) for god knows what last level skirmish they expect. usually the war will end before these are even used !!! They will both use Brigade level armoured troops for initial thrusts. Lets look at PA IABG's
The IABG (independent armoured brigade group) has 2 armoured regiments, 1 mechanised regiment plus 1 artillery and AD regiment either permanently attached or from its parent Corps HQ. Thats 88 MBT, 50 APC, 18 Arty and 18 AD. In some cases, there are more armoured regiments also. PA V-Corps armoured brigades are a mystery, it can have even 3-4 armoured regiments.
This is why we saw the acquisition figure of 320 T-80 and talk of 300 MBT's of T-99 and even Ak at one stage. 220 MBT equip a division and further 88 equip another independent brigade, totalling a little above 300 MBT.
So how will PA IABG's and IA CSD BG's will be used ?
Initial thrusts into enemy territory or countering each other. Wherever IA is poised to use a CSD BG, PA has already put an IABG. So PA IABG leads the attack, followed by an infantry division. IABG dislodges the enemy from a location, the infantry division following IABG, then captures and defends the area.
Secondly, to offset and harass enemy armoured division or any other enemy infantry division. Once the brigade gets mauled through continuous operations, PA or IA will induct it in any armoured division to support the divisions operations later in the conflict and the brigades usefulness as an independent formation will be ceased.
e.g. 8th IABG operates closely with 6th Armoured Division.
Punjab yes, even northern punjab, but not in kashmir.
For blitzkrieg style, Pakistan needs a very strong AF, which PAF isnt. Its strong enough to defend own skies but its not strong enough to send jets across border in all theatres for PA support. As soon as PAF starts to lose aircrafts, it will put even strike aircraft on AD duty in own skies and supporting PA troops will end abruptly.
For any next conflict, Pakistan doesnt need to expand Army. An aircraft is more powerful than an MBT or even a regiment of MBT's. The amount of damage in a minimal time that an aircraft can do over and over again, a ground formation can never do that. Mastan Khan (i wont tag him otherwise he will start abusing PAF, lol) keeps pointing towards heavier aircraft, yes they are needed, but not necessarily for deep strikes as he envisions. I have rarely seen F-16 or JF-17 without a fuel tank. These light and medium aircrafts have limitations. Heavier aircrafts give lots of flexibility. Heavy payload for multiple roles in a single sortie is something that F-16 even cannot give. They maybe costly to operate but their presence is a game changer.
PAF has 76 F-16, 84 JF-17, 33 Mirage ROSE for AD and 34 Mirage ROSE for strike. These are all the capable aircrafts that PAF has at the moment. Will PAF sacrifice own AD ops and strike ops for PA support roles? i doubt it. To cater numbers even the trainer FT-5 (Mig-17 copy) is fitted with Aim-9 for AD role. MFI-17 and K-8 are armed for A2A and A2G role also, but they wont survive in a fast paced Air battle.
PAF needs another two types of aircrafts currently atleast to lift the burden from F-16 and Mirage for strike role. One type or aircraft for Air superiority role like J-10C or J-11 and another for dedicated strike role like J-16 or SU34. Even if strike role aircraft number is kept 50, the air superiority role aircraft has to reach 80-100 numbers.
Its a very risky business for PA. IA has lots of reinforcement in the form of BSF as well as IA forces at China border can be shifted here plus IA can air lift troops from southern and eastern IA formations and land at airports in J&K. There is no way that IA will let go of Kashmir easily.
PA can spearhead a thrust from sialkot towards Kathua or Pathankot to protect the flanks of any PA formation which is moving towards Jammu or Akhnur. Even if Jammu or Akhnur is captured, what will be next? a move north towards Udhampur/Anantnag/Srinagar, by that time war will be over.
The PA troops are all infantry formations, which makes sense but the conflict of J&K requires quick movement of troops and assets in mountain warfare. PA doesnt have an airborne/air assault infantry formation, just SF. What PA needs to do is to capture air ports and then start unloading troops from C-130's on these air ports for a quick capture of main J&K cities and deny IA from these airports. This will even resistance for PA troops advancing on foot or single lane roads leading up towards J&K. These mountain trails and single roads will never let PA make gains in J&K. They can only help capture some points like Kargil and constantly harass IA but wont help in capturing J&K. For all this Pakistan will need air superiority for atleast 12 hours over J&K skies and PAF is 50/50 capable of doing that at the moment, at the cost of compromising PAF activity in other sectors of war. Secondly, there is no air borne/ air assault formation that can land on air ports and capture them. There is a shortage of helicopters, which are a must to move quickly to capture peaks and strategic points in Mountains and valleys and cross roads and air ports.
A brigade sized AIr assault force would require 140 Mi-17 atleast for a Brigade sized operation, otherwise PA will lift one battalion at a time with a hand ful of helicopters which means that PAF will get the burden to maintain air superiority over that sector for maybe 24-36 hours for the brigade sized operation to complete. Expect a lot of casualties in men and material. If the air ports are captured and the advancing ground force cannot connect with air assault force in next 12-24 hours, the ammunition may deplete and force may need to surrender or fight to last man. the advancing ground force will need to bring supplies and ammunition for the air assault force so the supply lines will be needed to kept intact at all times. Air superiority will be required so enemy doednt air drop troops to cut supply lines or encircle advancing force. Flanks will need to be protected so enemy ground force does not cause damage as the air ports are located well inside J&K like Srinagar. It's doable but its very risky and requires a lot of men and material, especially expansion of PAF.
@Ulla
