RAW network in Afghanistan behind Pak destabilisation

[RedBaron]

My two cents on the RAW network in AFG...I have absolutely no doubt that RAW has presence in all Indian consulates. But this is to be expected. It is a golden opportunity for India to be able to build "hum-int" on Paks hitherto unprotected border (note all PA/PAF formations are aligned mostly across Eastern border). Seriously, which country would not take advantage of this opportunity? Suppose Nepal/SL/BD went anti-India tomorrow, Pak would be the first country to ramp up ISI presence there. Same goes for USA's CIA stations in Georgia/Ukraine/Baltic republics which turned against Russia. This is due to "real-politik" (Realpolitik is a depiction of foreign policy that should be based on considerations of power, not ideals, morals, or principles). Every country in the world today practises real-politik. We live in a far too complex world where most issues are grey, not black or white.

As for RAW funding drug-dealers and local warlords, if it is true, then it can only happen with approval from "Big Brother" USA. India cannot match USA in any sphere of influence in AFG...money, military muscle, intel presence, covert-ops...Any major initiative that India embarks in AFG will require an implicit or explicit approval from Big Brother, period. So Big Brother is too powerful to let India fund anti-US militants in that region, even if India wanted to...

 

[notorious_eagle]

Sorry, but what evidence do you have to back up this assertion?

Ya so those dozens of consulates that India has opened in Afghanistan is to provide poor Afghans for visas . Pakistan's Eastern borders are secured, Pakistan's Western borders are not secured and the Indians are taking advantage of that.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Ya so those dozens of consulates that India has opened in Afghanistan is to provide poor Afghans for visas . Pakistan's Eastern borders are secured, Pakistan's Western borders are not secured and the Indians are taking advantage of that.

My question was regarding what evidence you had that the ISI as an institution was involved in the Indian Embassy bombing.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

As for RAW funding drug-dealers and local warlords, if it is true, then it can only happen with approval from "Big Brother" USA. India cannot match USA in any sphere of influence in AFG...money, military muscle, intel presence, covert-ops...Any major initiative that India embarks in AFG will require an implicit or explicit approval from Big Brother, period. So Big Brother is too powerful to let India fund anti-US militants in that region, even if India wanted to...

I disagree.

The US has not been able to control the drug and weapons trade supplying the Taliban, nor the insurgency itself. Afghanistan is a lawless country, and it would be easy enough for India to carry out anti-Pakistani activities without US knowledge, though US knowledge cannot be ruled out of course.

 

[RedBaron]

I disagree.

The US has not been able to control the drug and weapons trade supplying the Taliban, nor the insurgency itself. Afghanistan is a lawless country, and it would be easy enough for India to carry out anti-Pakistani activities without US knowledge, though US knowledge cannot be ruled out of course.

Anti-Pakistani activities, yes...maybe Balochistan may be an example. It is also plausible India could "hire" insurgents who act against PAK army in FATA. The tribesmen as often quoted on this forum cannot be ruled, but can be hired. And India's objectives could be to keep Pak Army busy and the FATA areas destabilised (for arguments sake...) so pressure is deflected off Kashmir/Eastern border.

Anti-US activities, no. Allegations that India funding Afghan Taliban who are the primary antagonists of the US are baseless. India accomplishes far more by collaborating with US to hunt down Afghan Taliban, than by supporting them. There is no tactical or strategic value in India acting against US priorities (as of now).

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

I agree that there is little incentive in India directly funding anti-US activities in Afghanistan, however, it is impossible to control the flow of money once it leaves your hands in a proxy war.

India may be funding militants and criminals creating havoc in Pakistan, but there is little she can do to prevent or monitor the weapons and money (provided by her) flow to militants fighting in Afghanistan as well.

 

[RedBaron]

I agree that there is little incentive in India directly funding anti-US activities in Afghanistan, however, it is impossible to control the flow of money once it leaves your hands in a proxy war.

India may be funding militants and criminals creating havoc in Pakistan, but there is little she can do to prevent or monitor the weapons and money (provided by her) flow to militants fighting in Afghanistan as well.

I agree...and I'm sure India knows it too well from the Frankenstein experience that US/Pak had with funding the Afghan mujahideen. Even in FATA, if RAW hands out money/weapons, there is no guarantee the same will not be used against India in Kashmir and elsewhere...but hiring insurgents for humint, equipping them with satphones is not the same as setting up an arms pipeline like US did with the mujahideen. RAW is most probably just gathering humint in FATA. Moreover, it does not have any organized support in FATA, unlike Balochistan. Sponsoring Baloch students, meeting Baloch leaders is all very much plausible..

I also take exception to some allegations in the article: Offering money to kill foreigners is pure conjecture, in my opinion. Why? If nailed, reputational risk to India is too high and return is marginal, which is enough to desist India. (Of course, Tom Clancy style, a rogue RAW desk could very well do all that the article alleges)

IMO the article in the first post mixes facts with fiction...

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Offering money to kill foreigners is pure conjecture, in my opinion. Why? If nailed, reputational risk to India is too high and return is marginal, which is enough to desist India.

Even with the Taliban insurgency, there is no separatist tendency in FATA/NWFP worth its salt, unlike Baluchistan.

So for India to play the game in FATA/NWFP, it has to be one of hurting Pakistan through destabilizing it and discouraging economic activity. Targeting foreigners helps in painting Pakistan as a place too risky for investment, and therefore impacts Pakistan economically. In terms of the repercussions from being 'caught', you run that risk in any case when supporting a proxy war.

 

[RedBaron]

Even with the Taliban insurgency, there is no separatist tendency in FATA/NWFP worth its salt, unlike Baluchistan.

So for India to play the game in FATA/NWFP, it has to be one of hurting Pakistan through destabilizing it and discouraging economic activity. Targeting foreigners helps in painting Pakistan as a place too risky for investment, and therefore impacts Pakistan economically. In terms of the repercussions from being 'caught', you run that risk in any case when supporting a proxy war.

Yes, so if there are other low-risk alternatives to create instability (Balochistan), why would India go for the high-risk route? As far as economic activity goes, Balochistan, with its rich gas/coal/minerals reserves and deep-sea ports is far more important than FATA, which frankly is a wasteland, at least compared to Balochistan.

All I'm saying is that from India's perspective, risk of failure in Balochistan is low due to RAW's existing presence, and return (to India) from instability there is high due to the economic cost to Pakistan.

In FATA, risk of failure is high due to enmity with India, fickleness of local tribes, difficulty in setting up local support, etc. Return is low as FATA's economic importance is low (at least as compared to Balochistan).
If you were a RAW chief, where would you put your money to work? In the high-return/low-risk sector, or low-return/high-risk sector? India does not have limitless resources to fund proxy wars, so it has to choose wisely.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

If you were a RAW chief, where would you put your money to work? In the high-return/low-risk sector, or low-return/high-risk sector? India does not have limitless resources to fund proxy wars, so it has to choose wisely.

Both.

The Baluchistan front has actually quieted down quite a bit with the new democratic government, the release of political prisoners, and engagement with the nationalist leaders, with some now condemning the BLA's tactics: http://www.defence.pk/forums/strategic-geopolitical-issues/12882-balochistan-5.html#post232743

In terms of economic impact, Baluchistan being less developed, instability there has a far lower impact than instability in the NWFP.

I must point out that the drop in the Baluch violence coincidentally occurred after the series of meetings between high level military and political officials of the US and Pakistan, the centerpiece of which was a secretive meeting aboard a CBG.

The drop in violence in Baluchistan also came about after alleged accusations by the US of officials in the ISI being involved in the embassy blast, and counter allegations of evidence being provided to the US of Indian contacts with individuals involved in terrorism in Pakistan.

Maybe presenting the 'evidence' to the US did have some little effect.

 

[RedBaron]

Both.

The Baluchistan front has actually quieted down quite a bit with the new democratic government, the release of political prisoners, and engagement with the nationalist leaders, with some now condemning the BLA's tactics...

The drop in violence in Baluchistan also came about after alleged accusations by the US of officials in the ISI being involved in the embassy blast, and counter allegations of evidence being provided to the US of Indian contacts with individuals involved in terrorism in Pakistan.

Maybe presenting the 'evidence' to the US did have some little effect.

I doubt it ...if indeed Baluchistan is quietening down, the credit really goes to the Pak govt and Baluch people for working things out. Its not easy for a proxy war to be "switched off" after a CBG meeting...similar signs are happening in Kashmir after recent NC victory and record voter turnout (though I'm veering out of topic here, in some ways Baluch "progress" mirrors Kashmir progress, especially when it comes to locals tiring of insurgents and focusing on basic issues)

 

[notorious_eagle]

My question was regarding what evidence you had that the ISI as an institution was involved in the Indian Embassy bombing.

What evidence is there that JFK was assassinated by the CIA, did a lonely person just appear from nowhere and kill an American president. The Indians have been whining about it and even the Americans were pissed of and they had some evidence. For more info, check this link out:

2008 Indian embassy bombing in Kabul - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[donrahul]

I have yet to see a piece that provides credible evidence that Pakistani institutions are actively supporting Taliban operations in Afghanistan.

Let us not behave like our respective governments, asking for credible evidence and all that tosh. Its an open secret that intelligence agencies of a country are to create mischief in the enemy's home and to aide and nurture friendly elements in other countries. and I dont need to point out that Pakistan was one of the few countries which recognized the Taliban government in Afghanistan.

You mean to say that Pakistan supported the Taliban Government for the sake of fun? Its clear that the GoP let go off Taliban like a scalded cat. But then, the ISI has always danced to its own tunes and who else could be supporting them if not for the intelligence agency of the only other country which supported the taliban Mujahids during its salad days.

 

[H2O3C4Nitrogen]

Its an open secret that intelligence agencies of a country are to create mischief in the enemy's home and to aide and nurture friendly elements in other countries

I m wondering if its the prime objective of Raw to destablize Pakistan And if they succeded in doing so to some extent then is it in the true& ritful intrust of Indians or the BigBrother that they have Destablized Nuclear Armed Cbm Power ?.
I beleive US has Learned a bitter experience when the Soviet Union collapsed in the picture of North Korea.
What i really wana say is that Even India Has enemies and competetors except Pakistan in this reagion of agetation .
The Russians were Really big hearted to accept their defeat in Afghanistan. But i really wonder That are the elements in ISI do really have such a big heart to accept Indias involvement in this whole game of War on Terror?
The Rules of Proxy War are not defined . As a famous saying . "Every thing is Fair in Love and War"
The intent of Proxy War is to Obtain and acheive some strategick and politikal objectives.
Is this the real objective to Destablize A Nuclear Armed Muslim State or Is it our Nukes?
I m sure Raw and CIA would agree on every thing Regarding Our Nukes.

 

[Asian.Century]

Common knowledge after 14 tears of war, severely replied back for defeat of RAW, will continue exposing
indian dirty evil hands.