Very good analysis.
Nothing in China will be able to match meteor. India too is bulding Astra mk2 and ramjet powered 250 km SAM like meteor and shall be much better than China as India already has mastered ramjet propulsion Akash. India is good in seeker as well and has multiple options to buy it from Israel, france etc. Meteor is not about range. Meteor can get input from many friendly aircrafts and awacs. So to come out with something like meteor is not China's cup of tea. Chinese AESA are air cooled and much inferior to other good AESA and just as good as Israeli MMR india uses in current tejas.
Rafale has great sensors and radar which can detect enemy aircraft in passive mode without using active radar and can keep its presence secrete untill detected with radar.
Chinese EW are no match to that of Rafale. That is why Rafale is choosen over Mig 35, US duo and gripen. Rafale has very low RCS coupled with state of art EW spectra. No chinese aircraft comes near rafale in elwctronic rafale is miles ahead of anything China has as of now. Air marshal Nambiar has confirmed it.
Hmm I don't think it's accurate to say China does not have Meteor level capability. Some accurate sources say already much longer range and kinematic performance achieved on a few missiles in testing and one is already more or less fielded. Not yet shown but based off PL-15 concept of two stage engine. Akash looks like good SAM and very sophisticated because using solid fuel? for boost and then ramjet. This is SAM along with Astra (European one?) and S-400. India does have very capable on paper air defense like Russia and China. China has decided on much cheaper and more numbers in HQ-9 types just solid fuel. It's long range SAMs are also ready believe me but they are not designed for conventional targets. Mostly trying to field BMD like others but honestly that's very useless because it's preparing for end of world scenario so very little point.
On missiles. Meteor is excellent no doubt best in world at the moment. But most airforces who are getting it will not receive it in numbers for a few years. Indian Rafale will be in IAF service in a few years with Meteor. PLAAF has PL-21 and PL-xx and PL-15 for meantime. There are several ramjet powered two stage versions but most are a bit inaccurate for maneuvrable fighters and best against AWACs and tanker targets. This is acceptable for PLAAF for now but there is so much pressure from government to get next generation of missiles in for J-20 bays and for fighter drones. PLAAF is looking into more reliance on drones to carry out front line tasks with J-20s and long reach fighters like J-16 and J-11s to launch attacks on AWACs and tankers using PL-XX and PL-21.
IAF Rafale of course add a lot of capability but I think (only opinion and no sources) that the real benefit is to have opportunities to learn from Dassault and SNECMA and maybe introduce certain technologies into AMCA particularly in avionics. I have no idea on Chinese EW capability so won't say anything for sure but
I don't think PLAAF ever said Rafale is better than everything PLAAF has. They don't know Rafale and they never say concrete things like this. I also don't think PLAAF EW capability is off. In fact the reliable guys who have predicted J-10, J-20, WS-10, TVC etc months and years before shown, also say China's strongest area is electronics and software now with weakest area being materials and manufacturing technology. This is two years ago or so. I think manufacturing is improved a lot and materials too but materials for engine is slow because there is no shortcut and lot's of testing trial and error. Single crystal blades now conquered but there are many other little areas that need improvement for reliability and thermodynamic efficiency in energy dissipation and management of heat. Using fuel is part of that equation and WS-15 keeps getting reworked because new discovery are forced to be worked into program. They will keep delaying this because modifying it after finishing will be too much headache and PLAAF is at the moment okay with just using up-thrusted WS-10 for J-20. It's mission in training has developed to be medium range sniper of important targets. Only when WS-15 comes, it will be able to do zoom in and out quickly type closer range killer to harass important targets and even fighters but will have to wait for WS-15 after 2022 or so. TVC is just experiment and PLAAF has not finalised decision to use it at all. Show is just for face at Zhuhai but program is not near final stages and decision not made.
Rafale has good EW system against older SAM systems. Meteor missile is excellent but not miracle. It adds capability on top of good missilies like AIM 120D and adds ramjet, longer reach, active seeker with very good seeker head AESA and it has better energy management at final stage. Most older generation missiles from 120C to D and PL-12 latest versions don't have these capabilities. Newer Chinese missiles do. Ballistic version shown years ago was just for AWACs and large targets like Phoenix missile in past. Not as good as Meteor for fighters. But there are several that are just like Meteor on paper. Details I don't know.
Overall, PLAAF mood is very positive and excited about some promising programs. Indian intelligence knows better than internet discussions and knows quite well today what to expect in PLAAF. There are plenty of leaks and guys selling information to everyone. All others are keeping quiet but also receive many false information. Some corrupt top management guys leaking info but they are all very confident there will be no war at all because deterrence is strong enough against USA. The politicians are only worried about economic ruin today. Military is just ongoing development and depends on finance. Trade route and access to energy is top concern. Not military. IAF wants cooperation and technology transfer with expensive purchase from France because they know France is politically going to be neutral with India no matter what. USA is not 100% reliable with India even as allies. Russia Su-57 disappoint IAF and decision I don't think was made out of corruption. Definitely FGFA stopped for now because Russia did not offer technology transfer and Su-57 was not fulfill expectations. Rafale doesn't have internal bays and SPECTRA is not going to be useful against AESA. People can believe whatever. The huge push from PLAAF for AESA and even skipping PESA is mostly the resistance to all types of EW because frequency is flexible and software is powerful enough to use narrow AI for optimizing radar emission. AESA is so much better than old generation PLAAF inducted first generations of Chinese AESA immediately and skipped J-10B after only one batch production because it uses a now obsolete PESA system. They are all first generation when fielded but now upgrades have all been installed on J-10C and J-16. USAF all use AESA on latest models of legacy fighters too. They know very well this is only radar for 21st century before photonics and quantum types are ready for fighters.
Chinese AESA has only one type out of many many kinds that use air cooled. All J-10C, J-16, and J-20 use more complex systems. Air cooled version is new and offer simpler construction and heat management because the unit is custom developed to suit JF-17 because it doesn't require heavy cooling like PLAAF fighters, it can afford to be cheaper this way and because JF-17 future AESA will not consume as much power or be as powerful and large to require any more cooling, the engineers optimized the design to make it simpler and cheaper to acquire for inexpensive light fighters.
It will be in India's interest to invest in own industry and keep improving it. Tejas is start. AMCA will be their next step. Radar and avionics is another side and with partner or cooperation and technology trade, it will be easier faster and cheaper. We will see in coming years how Indian politicians manage this and what path they choose. I don't know that much about IAF or equipment so mostly comment on PLAAF and Chinese stuff that is already well known by reliable circles so maybe here we can share the information to make a accurate picture.
Let's re-phrase that sentence: YOU have believed that Rafale is superior to anything China has.
PL-21 ramjet-powered missile has been tested since 2013. The PL-XX ultra-long-range AAM (using a ballistic flight trajectory) has also been spotted on service aircraft in 2016.
Newsflash: the Chinese have been testing and deploying ramjet-powered munitions for years.
The air-cooled AESA system is just one of many that the Chinese have developed and deployed. Interestingly enough, even the air-cooled export-oriented AESA (LKF601E) has more T/R modules than the Rafale's RBE2. Again, to claim that "X" is inferior to "Y" you need to bring up some data.
Most aircraft with AESA radars and other upgrades such as IRST can perform the aforementioned functions.
You need to provide specifications, data, and some form of proof to validate your claim that "X" is better than "Y". We're all ears.
PL-21 which is the long thin missile on J-16 picture shown years ago is not for fighter. It is too inaccurate and not end stage agile enough for modern fighter. It is purely developed only for large slow targets. It has jam resistance focus and no focus on kinematics. It's purpose is to get through EW protection of big important planes and hit them using only ballistic trajectory. Very useless against fighters. There are several other programs for fighters. One looks like Meteor with ramjet inlets. Others look very different. PLAAF will be testing to see their performance soon. PL-15 they love at the moment. PL-15 just for J-20 is developed to fit 6 inside bays. They are more complicated and lesser range than PL-15. Chinese boards will reveal in several months but mostly already known. Leakers already told everyone in subtle ways. Right now there's a lot of false information intentionally leaked though. Laser submarine detection and WS-15 already installed all false information I think even though some comes from previously very reliable sources.
By the time Meteor is widely used in Asia from IAF, PLAAF will have several equivalents and aim for entirely novel way of using UAVs. Most money and engineers used in this new field. 6th generation program has been active since 2012 not long after J-20 almost finalised. There is conflict in how to use UAV and what direction to go for 6th generation. At the moment too many technology barriers for what PLAAF wants in both paths so more solid decision will only be made when these technology barriers are overcomed and they will only show some leaks when program is near complete. So far it is combination UAV and pilot fighter or pure UAV. The technology for 100% EW resistance using quantum based communication is still testing but initial stages proven to work last year. Even those experiments communicating with satellites Micius and submarines conducted. But full remote control is not yet guaranteed to be jam and hack proof. USA military has ability to hack and directly disrupt a lot of military equipment that uses their chips and networking methods. Datalinks and communication disruption is easy for them. China has really rushed and pushed to overcome this recently because they suspect this even though USA hides this ability. Secret military sector knows information about their competitors so much further than over here. We only see the toys as leaks years after they finish playing with them. Lesser guys work on finalising stages with only some management from top guys.
