Questionable BBS GDP Statistics

[Indos]

They are readable at my end on phone browser. What platform are you using?

PC

 

[Destranator]

@Destranator bhai I realize that there may be some book cooking going on, but I'd question the degree on which these 'investigative' pieces suggest they are occurring.

I mean these stories are all from three years ago (2018). If this was such a big deal, then why wasn't more written about this?

Not all are from 2018. Please read from the original post.

There are many articles on this topic. I am sticking to the most reputable experts and sources only. I have been reading such articles on print media for decades; unfortunately not all of them are archived online.

The cooking by BBS is not a new phenomenon as previous governments have done the same. I hope there is internvention somewhere to give BBS the required autonomy.

PC

I will see what I can do when I am on my PC.

 

[Bilal9]

Anyone who travels around Bangladesh can tell the significant economic development that has taken place in the last 10 years. The question here is not whether Bangladesh is developing, the question is how accurate the GDP stats are.


GDP growth doubted, quality questioned
Jasim Uddin | Published: 00:23, Jun 10,2019 | Updated: 00:53, Jun 10,2019


Bangladesh has become one of the fastest growing economies in the world with a record 8.13 per cent gross domestic product growth in the outgoing financial year 2018-19 raising doubt and questions among experts, economists and research bodies.
Over the past decade Bangladesh has registered one of the fastest economic growth rates in the world but experts and economists continue to doubt the figures and sources of growth questioning the authenticity of the government estimation.
Experts and research organisations said that Bangladesh economy was expected to grow at a higher rate but not so high as the government estimated as the primary economic growth drivers and other indicators did not match the estimated rate.
They said that the quality of GDP growth also remained a big concern as poverty reduction and job creation rates were not aligned with the growth rate while inequality kept rising.
Centre for Policy Dialogue on April 23 in a report on the first 100 days of the government doubted the government’s provisional estimate of 8.13 per cent GDP growth for FY19, citing mismatch between the projected growth rate and various economic performance indicators.
The think tank distinguished fellow Debapriya Bhattacharya said that the government-estimated GDP growth was not reflected in various economic indicators, including private investment, private-sector credit growth, capital machinery import, revenue collection and employment generation.
The overall productivity also did not increase while income inequality widened, he said.
The report said that some manufacturing sectors like leather and related products registered very high growth without a commensurate reflection in the export performance.
The tax to GDP ratio and private sector credit also registered lower growth in FY19 compared with FY18, it added.
The GDP deflator growth (4.23 per cent) was also estimated significantly lower than the inflation rate (5.48 per cent as of March 2019), it said.
The think tank analysis showed that the economy was going through a jobless growth phase as the employment rate decreased by 0.95 percentage points in 2010-2017 compared to 2000-2010.
It demanded disclosure of all data based on which the growth was estimated for the sake of transparency of the estimation.
Policy Research Institute executive director Ahsan H Mansur told New Age on Sunday that the country’s economy was growing at a better rate but the rate estimated by the government created questions and doubt as many economic indicators did not match the rate.
Growth in revenue generation was very slow (7.27 per cent in the first nine months of FY19) though it should have been much higher in line with the higher GDP growth and manufacturing growth of 19.50 per cent, he said.
Credit flow in banking sector declined to 12 per cent and businesses were not getting loan due to liquidity crisis, he mentioned.
The rate of bankruptcy also kept rising and employment generation was not increasing at an expected rate, he said.
In this context, the question is what the sources of growth are, he said.
The government should be restraint about GDP growth rate in coming years and GDP growth should be well matched with economic reality, he said, adding that the GDP was not out of overall economic performance rather it was a combined outcome of overall economy.
South Asian Network on Economic Modelling on May 9 in its quarterly review of Bangladesh economy termed the rising economic growth as conundrum and inconsistent with various indicators and the drivers of growth.
Export and remittance are two major drivers of Bangladesh economy but high economic growth in recent years does not match sluggish growth in export and remittance, it said.
The estimated high growth in private consumption also does not match low export and remittance growth.
High manufacturing growth does not match low export growth and slow private investment, it said.
The think tank, however, said that the quality of growth was a big concern.
‘Poverty rate has declined in the country but the growth elasticity of poverty has declined too. That means, the pace of poverty reduction is much slower than the pace of GDP growth rate,’ it said.
Inequality is also rising despite higher growth while employment generation also becomes slower, it added.
The obsession with the GDP growth numbers puts policymakers in the comfort zone and reform-averse, it said.
Its executive director Selim Raihan said that policymakers should focus on whether the growth could remove poverty and inequality, and create enough employment instead of growth numbers.
He said that private consumption grew at an unusual pace despite low growth in export and remittance inflows.
Private investment is also falling in real terms, he said.

GDP growth doubted, quality questioned

Bangladesh has become one of the fastest growing economies in the world with a record 8.13 per cent gross domestic product growth in the outgoing...

www.newagebd.net

One expert could be compromised, not mutiple credible experts working for various credible agencies. Stay tuned.

It is common knowledge that CPD and that founder of CPD are Indian (BJP) shills.

The only person I'd trust somewhat as unbiased is WB consultant Zahid Hussain Sir (he was a professor at NSU Banani Campus as well).

 

[Destranator]

It is common knowledge that CPD and that founder of CPD are Indian (BJP) shills.

The only person I'd trust somewhat as unbiased is WB consultant Zahid Hussain Sir (he was a professor at NSU Banani Campus as well).

Are you talking about Dr. Debapriya Bhattachariya?

Even if he was an Indian agent, it makes no sense for him to dispute stats during a BAL regime.

It is often trendy to label any Hindu who offers a differing opinion as an Indian agent so I would be careful when listening to such "critics".

I do not know if he has any connection with India but he is no longer with CPD. He is also generally respected in economic circles.


Dr. Mahfuzur Rahman and Dr. Fahmida Khatun are respected in academic circles.

It makes no sense for these two along with Zahid Hussain, Mirza Azizul Islam, Salehuddin Ahmed, etc. to all lie in unison.

 

[bluesky]

Whistleblowers need to show the the evidence, as Chris Hemsworth said , " প্রমাণ দাও "

Do you want proves? The way Hasina govt is forcing us to drink WASA muddy water, the way it forces us to use Dingi Boats during waterlogging, the way Hawkers sitting on the footpaths, the way Lungiwala, Sabjiwala, Falwala, Murgiwala and Kaprawala dsisturb the passerby walking the footpaths are all proves of the very low level development of the country.

BBS people have to falsify data in order to keep their jobs. BBS is not a BAL-appointed organ, it belongs to GoB, and this BBS has been compiling false data since its inception.

Watch the streets of Dhaka and other towns and cities, what is the main mode of transportation? It is the 200 year old Rickshaw culture. What other proofs do you want except that some stupid here claims BD people drink 300 Taka a cup of Tea.

Do you guys want people to believe in BBS nuisance? Go out of your hi fi apartment some times and enjoy the beauty of Dhaka living standard. Tell me about one eatery, not Hotel Radisson or any 5-star hotel, with toilet facilities in Dhaka, and then talk. It means that even a correct sewerage disposal system is not in place.

Yet, guys like you brag about the falsified BBS GDP data to tell the world that BD has already become another Sweden!! Nonsense!! Has BD become another Switzerland or Monaco of the east without even a functional drainage, sewerage or safe drinking water system?

It is a new definition of development which is accepted and appreciated only by some of the ignorant BD people.

 

[Michael Corleone]

Too long to read. Can someone just say which data to rely on when it comes to bd ?

 

[Destranator]

Too long to read. Can someone just say which data to rely on when it comes to bd ?

Better to read as much as possible to get the full picture.

GDP is calculated from scratch off field survey data by only one entity: BBS. The foreign entities (WB, IMF, etc..) are forced to rely on BBS data of past fiscal years to come up with their own forecasts for the future.

So effectively any GDP data on Bangladesh is questionable as the basis is flawed. Best we keep this in mind before we make tall claims on GDP numbers and belittle other countries going forward.

 

[UKBengali]

Best way to figure out whether the data on GDP is cooked is to look at things like exports/ imports, wages, infrastructure like roads/railways/bridges/electricity supply and forex reserves which cannot be manipulated by the government.

All the above suggests that the BD economy has been growing very strongly since the AL came into power. BBS may not be exactly right about GDP growth but it is not wildly off.

 

[Destranator]

Best way to figure out whether the data on GDP is cooked is to look at things like exports/ imports, wages, infrastructure like roads/railways/bridges/electricity supply and forex reserves which cannot be manipulated by the government.

All the above suggests that the BD economy has been growing very strongly since the AL came into power. BBS may not be exactly right about GDP growth but it is not wildly off.

I would be surprised if the actual figure is less than 5.5-6% in a non-covid year when considering other economic indicators, improvement of infrastructure and growth of other developing countries with similar economic conditions. However, accuracy of GDP figures is absolutely vital as the inaccuracies keep building up and multiplying over the years.

8% growth without major natural resource production and despite major infrastructural bottlenecks and lack of industrial sophistication is unheard of. Had BBS not been playing foul, they would release all survey data without hesitation.

 

[Indos]

Best way to figure out whether the data on GDP is cooked is to look at things like exports/ imports, wages, infrastructure like roads/railways/bridges/electricity supply and forex reserves which cannot be manipulated by the government.

All the above suggests that the BD economy has been growing very strongly since the AL came into power. BBS may not be exactly right about GDP growth but it is not wildly off.

Car sales is actually much better. The data cannot be manipulated. You can compare car sales in Pakistan with Bangladesh to see if any different exist.

 

[Black_cats]

Car sales is actually much better. The data cannot be manipulated. You can compare car sales in Pakistan with Bangladesh to see if any different exist.

Bangladesh has very high import duty unlike Pakistan. Plus Bangladesh is way ahead of Pakistan be it 6% or 8%. Pakistan’s per capita GDP is around $1250 where as for Bangladesh it is $2070.

Only certain political parties in Bangladesh and their supporters try to make big fuss out of it.

Bangladesh’s recent growth of 8% only happened 1 year or 2 mostly due to internal consumption and spending on big scale projects.

Here the real question should be if it sustainable or not rather if it is true or not.

 

[Destranator]

Car sales is actually much better. The data cannot be manipulated. You can compare car sales in Pakistan with Bangladesh to see if any different exist.

Car sales is not a good indicator for Bangladesh as import duties are absolutely crazy - upto 826%. Additional hefty taxes also apply.

 

[Indos]

Car sales is not a good indicator for Bangladesh as import duties are absolutely crazy - upto 826%. Additional hefty taxes also apply.

At least we can see the growth since 2000-2020

Here just an example of Indonesia which is actually higher than our total GDP growth but still quite understandable

 

[Destranator]

At least we can see the growth since 2000-2020

Here just an example of Indonesia which is actually higher than our total GDP growth but still quite understandable

View attachment 702274

I am not sure whether you are familiar with the following economic term: price elasticity of demand.

Demand for personal cars is largely elastic in a poor country, meaning rise in price due to taxes will easily dissuade consumers from buying cars.
It is therefore not fair to compare car sales growth of two different countries unless the car prices are very similar.

Now if I were a political hack, I would easily jump on this opportunity and pointed at poor car sales figures and use it as evidence of poor economic growth.

Our car sales growth is terrible but it says nothing about our economic growth.

In other words, Bangladesh can genuinely grow at 8-9% despite poor car sales.

The issue with our GDP figures is that the more important economic indicators (industrial growth, FDI, private sector investment, etc.) not making sense or not aligning with GDP figures, as pointed out by experts in the articles posted.

 

[Indos]

I am not sure whether you are familiar with the following economic term: price elasticity of demand.

Demand for personal cars is largely elastic in a poor country, meaning rise in taxes will easily dissuade consumers from buying cars.
It is therefore not fair to compare car sales growth of two different countries unless the car prices are very similar.

In other words, Bangladesh can genuinely grow at 8-9% despite poor car sales.

The issue is with more important indicators (industrial growth, FDI, private sector investment, etc.) not making sense or not aligning with GDP figures, as pointed out by experts in the articles posted.

This is Toyota car price, just converted into USD to see the comparison with BD. PS: Juta means Million

Fortuner for example is around 35.000 USD-49.500 USD

More list in here

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But most Indonesia dont buy car in cash, but through credit.