Putin's Grandest Dream: Could His 'Eurasian Union' Work?

[PteX]

Putins dream can be materialized if the cooperation includes Turkey. Because Turkey is the gateway to Europe, Asia and Middle East

Russian battalions and intelligence agents are stationed in Armenia, buddy.

Russia is also Armenia's strongest ally and protector, sorry to burst your bubble.

 

[lem34]

Russian battalions and intelligence agents are stationed in Armenia, buddy.

Russia is also Armenia's strongest ally and protector, sorry to burst your bubble.

I agree I think Turkey is firmly in the American camp

Perhaps this thread should be merged with this one:

http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/167133-russia-rules-pipelineistan.html#post2726198

Mar 23, 2012

THE ROVING EYE
Russia rules Pipelineistan
By Pepe Escobar

Nabucco - the alleged gas Holy Grail from the Caspian Sea to Europe, 4,000 kilometers from Turkey to Austria - is the perennial Pipelineistan soap opera.

Part of the gas to supply Nabucco may come from Azerbaijan. Another part might - a very problematic "might" - come from Turkmenistan. But every self-respecting energy analyst knows Nabucco could only possibly work if it was supplied by natural gas from Iran. That will happen over Washington's collective dead body.

So, once again, the spineless European Union (EU) political "leadership" - once again acting like the poodles of choice - gloriously sabotaged what it has always billed as its most ambitious energy project; caved in to US pressure; and ultimately sacrificed its energy independence. And all this from people who never lose an opportunity to decry that Europe is a "gas hostage" to Russia's Gazprom.

As with all things Pipelineistan, there are layers and layers of nuance. Moscow is pulling out all the stops to prevent Iran from eventually joining Nabucco - because its top policy agenda is to extend its stranglehold over the EU's gas supply to 30%.

The crucial Azerbaijan gas angle is centered on the huge Shah Deniz 2 fields. For what is called the Southern Corridor, via Italy, two possible pipelines are in competition. Then there are two others competing on a Northern/Balkans route; one of them is Nabucco; the other, faithful to the acronym-laden ethos of Pipelineistan, is the South East Europe Pipeline (SEEP). Only next year will the world know the end chapter for this never-ending soap opera.

For the Southern Corridor, the favorite is TAP (Trans-Adriatic pipeline), a Swiss-German-Norwegian joint venture. TAP will use infrastructure already in place and only needs investment in a short underwater pipeline from Greece to Italy. Norway's Statoil, crucially, is a 25.5% partner in the exploitation of Shah Deniz 2 fields; that makes things way easier.

For the Northern/Balkans route, the fat lady may be about to sing for Nabucco. The favorite to win is a BP project, much cheaper than Nabucco, and with no need to use Turkmen gas.

BP - of Gulf of Mexico polluting fame - happens to be the major stockholder of Shah Deniz 2. Azerbaijan - mired in corruption - can be reasonably described as BP country. Even his close ally Washington knows Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is something of a Mafia boss. The Azeris, by the way, happen to be very popular in Washington courtesy of the Israeli lobby.

We play chess the win-win way

A certified winner in this complex Pipelineistan battle is Turkey. After all, any gas from Azerbaijan towards Europe must transit through Turkey. Since last December, in fact, Turkey and Azerbaijan have a memorandum in place committing both to the construction of the TANAP (Trans-Anatolian Pipeline). TANAP will eventually become part of the Southern Corridor.

Even if Azerbaijan decides to sell its extra gas wealth to Russia, Turkey also wins. Turkey has authorized the underwater passage of the Russian-Italian (Vladimir Putin-Silvio Berlusconi?) South Stream pipeline in its territory in return for even more robust trade and energy ties with Russia.

But most of all Russia wins. South Stream is a go. Gazprom for its part has increased its charm offensive all across Central Asia; this means that the more Gazprom imports gas from them, the less gas will be available for Europe (unless it is sold by Russia ...)

With Putin back in the presidency in May, the strategy that he laid out back in 2000 is graphically paying all kinds of dividends.

Gazprom's head Alexei Miller - appointed by Putin - is totally invested in creating a complex economy of scale with energy supplying countries in the region, applying a very Chinese "win-win" mentality.

The leadership in Azerbaijan, for instance, knows very well that Russia is the only player capable of determining what goes on in the Caucasus - and on top of it offers great energy deals. So here's the writing on the wall; Russia under Putin will be even more influential from the Caucasus to Central Asia.

For this to work, Russia had to torpedo Nabucco. In fact, the European-wide financial crisis took care of it. Nabucco may end up costing a staggering $25 billion - and counting. Nabucco's construction "might" start by the end of 2014 and be finished by the end of 2017; but all dates have been incessantly postponed for years. Azerbaijan could only provide less than half of the gas. Nobody anywhere really knows what will be Turkmenistan's game. And Iran has been ruled out by His Master's Voice - Washington.

Still, the TCP (Trans-Caspian Pipeline) - between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan - remains in the cards. That, in theory, would be the gate for Europe to finally have (indirect) access to the Central Asian energy wealth of the Caspian Sea. Ashgabat and Baku seem to be in synch about it - the whole thing helped by EU-brokered negotiations. Turkey has also endorsed it. But Russia under Putin will do whatever it takes to bomb the TCP idea.

Still the most pressing question seems to be whether anybody in Brussels will wake up from its masochistic haze, stop the sanction nonsense, and talk energy with Iran.

Pepe Escobar is the author of Globalistan: How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid War (Nimble Books, 2007) and Red Zone Blues: a snapshot of Baghdad during the surge. His most recent book, just out, is Obama does Globalistan (Nimble Books, 2009).

 

[kalu_miah]

Russian battalions and intelligence agents are stationed in Armenia, buddy.

Russia is also Armenia's strongest ally and protector, sorry to burst your bubble.

Shouldn't they leave SCO, join the EU instead and become a part of the West? After fall of communism, what is stopping them, the nostalgic dream of a Eurasian Romanov empire?

Please note the points I made in this post on another thread:
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/164231-why-u-s-china-destined-clash-5.html#post2684209

 

[Tshering22]

I don't know if Russia could indeed form a Union of this sort officially, but unofficially it leads the entire former-USSR block. The entire CAR other than Turkmenistan is in its pocket. That's where the Pipelinistan terminology comes from.

 

[DRaisinHerald]

Russia is ridiculously huge, and yet they want to create "unions"

 

[DV RULES]

President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia stated that both the positive and negative experiences of the European Union will be taken into account and argued that the Eurasian Union will avoid the problems of economic gaps and disparity between countries, such as found in the eurozone, since the member countries have a comparable level of economic development, as well as common history and values.

Russia should make step ahead its way to Eurasian Union as they have to play decisive role to normalize regional affairs. It is important to say that region has to look over nearest available powers rather than problematic countries.

This is not dream but reality which can change Asian political, economical and strategic scenario.

 

[Hello_10]

What Euro Crisis? Russia Seeks Single Currency

It remains unclear whether the Eurasian economic space will use a supranational currency or stick with the ruble.

Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev is calling attention to the introduction of a common currency for the Eurasian Union of former Soviet countries as a hedge against growing volatility in global financial markets.

Although he noted that creating such a currency is a long-term project — the Eurasian Union is expected to start functioning in 2015 — he said it's time "to think ahead."

"It's not a matter of concern for today, but we should think about it," Medvedev told a business forum in St. Petersburg on Friday, adding that he expects the business communities of member states to participate in the discussions.

The idea of the Eurasian Union was first voiced by then-Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in October 2011.

In an article in Izvestia, Putin said the Eurasian Union would further integrate existing customs-union members Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. It would be expanded later to include more former Soviet republics, perhaps Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Introducing a single currency for the member states of the Eurasian Union would ease trade and financial relations between the countries, reduce currency exchange expenses and simplify individuals' transfer across the borders, but it's a very long-term prospect, said Alexei Portansky, a professor in the global economy and policy department at the Higher School of Economics.

"There is no sufficient economic background within the customs union to introduce the common currency over the next few years," he said.

Discussion of a single currency in Europe began in the mid-1970s, when the domestic market accounted for at least 65 percent of the region's trade, and it took more than 20 years for the euro to be introduced as the EU's single currency in 1999, Portansky said.

Russia has yet to reach those trade volumes with its customs-union peers. They accounted for less than 8 percent of its external trade in 2010, he said, citing figures from the Economic Development Ministry.

Portansky said wooing Ukraine into the customs union would bring the introduction of the common currency closer because it would significantly boost Russia's mutual trade with other bloc members.

Creating a single currency will mark the final stage of forming the Eurasian Union and help strengthen the bloc, Stanislav Bogdankevich, former chairman of the National Bank of Belarus, told RIA-Novosti on Friday.

He added that determining which country's currency becomes the basis for the bloc's monetary system will depend on the union's ultimate structure.

"If it's a broader Eurasian Union of five to six states, it's better to create a new currency," he said.

But regardless of the currency adopted, member states should learn a lesson from the eurozone, now mired in a severe debt crisis.

The first thing to do when creating a single-currency union is establish a common central authority overseeing the fiscal policy in each of the bloc's countries, something eurozone countries don't have, said Alexei Devyatov, chief economist at UralSib Capital.

"If we first create the common-currency union, leaving the tight political integration for later, as it happened in Europe, we run the risk of repeating the destiny of the European Union when small countries expand their budget deficits," he said.

But Leonid Slutsky, head of the State Duma's CIS committee, said the Eurasian Union wouldn't be "a copy of the European Union, but it could borrow the main positive factors."

Having supported Medvedev's proposal to start discussions on the common currency, Slutsky said it could be introduced shortly after 2015, when the union's structure becomes clear.

"Only then will it be clear whether it makes sense to issue a new supranational currency like the euro or probably use the Russian ruble for the common Eurasian economic space," he said.

What Euro Crisis? Russia Seeks Single Currency | Business | The Moscow Times

 

[Hello_10]

What Euro Crisis? Russia Seeks Single Currency

It remains unclear whether the Eurasian economic space will use a supranational currency or stick with the ruble.

Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev is calling attention to the introduction of a common currency for the Eurasian Union of former Soviet countries as a hedge against growing volatility in global financial markets.

Although he noted that creating such a currency is a long-term project — the Eurasian Union is expected to start functioning in 2015 — he said it's time "to think ahead."

"It's not a matter of concern for today, but we should think about it," Medvedev told a business forum in St. Petersburg on Friday, adding that he expects the business communities of member states to participate in the discussions.

The idea of the Eurasian Union was first voiced by then-Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in October 2011.

In an article in Izvestia, Putin said the Eurasian Union would further integrate existing customs-union members Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. It would be expanded later to include more former Soviet republics, perhaps Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Introducing a single currency for the member states of the Eurasian Union would ease trade and financial relations between the countries, reduce currency exchange expenses and simplify individuals' transfer across the borders, but it's a very long-term prospect, said Alexei Portansky, a professor in the global economy and policy department at the Higher School of Economics.

"There is no sufficient economic background within the customs union to introduce the common currency over the next few years," he said.

Discussion of a single currency in Europe began in the mid-1970s, when the domestic market accounted for at least 65 percent of the region's trade, and it took more than 20 years for the euro to be introduced as the EU's single currency in 1999, Portansky said.

Russia has yet to reach those trade volumes with its customs-union peers. They accounted for less than 8 percent of its external trade in 2010, he said, citing figures from the Economic Development Ministry.

Portansky said wooing Ukraine into the customs union would bring the introduction of the common currency closer because it would significantly boost Russia's mutual trade with other bloc members.

Creating a single currency will mark the final stage of forming the Eurasian Union and help strengthen the bloc, Stanislav Bogdankevich, former chairman of the National Bank of Belarus, told RIA-Novosti on Friday.

He added that determining which country's currency becomes the basis for the bloc's monetary system will depend on the union's ultimate structure.

"If it's a broader Eurasian Union of five to six states, it's better to create a new currency," he said.

But regardless of the currency adopted, member states should learn a lesson from the eurozone, now mired in a severe debt crisis.

The first thing to do when creating a single-currency union is establish a common central authority overseeing the fiscal policy in each of the bloc's countries, something eurozone countries don't have, said Alexei Devyatov, chief economist at UralSib Capital.

"If we first create the common-currency union, leaving the tight political integration for later, as it happened in Europe, we run the risk of repeating the destiny of the European Union when small countries expand their budget deficits," he said.

But Leonid Slutsky, head of the State Duma's CIS committee, said the Eurasian Union wouldn't be "a copy of the European Union, but it could borrow the main positive factors."

Having supported Medvedev's proposal to start discussions on the common currency, Slutsky said it could be introduced shortly after 2015, when the union's structure becomes clear.

"Only then will it be clear whether it makes sense to issue a new supranational currency like the euro or probably use the Russian ruble for the common Eurasian economic space," he said.

What Euro Crisis? Russia Seeks Single Currency | Business | The Moscow Times

failure of EU and Success of Eurasia, will be a completely different world

 

[jha]

failure of EU and Success of Eurasia, will be a completely different world

I am eagerly waiting for the re emergence of a Russian federation of states. A multi polar world needs a strong Russia.

 

[Juice]

Will vote for him , if you are asking me. I like very much most of his accomplishments. Loved his move on WTO against China last week on the rare stones scandal china is purposely creating harming every country in the world. like his foreign policy approach of sanctions vs. war on Iran at first steps. He killed Osama . We are out Of Iraq and now I want him to reduce our presence in Afghanistan ( not completely out of it) , don't want to give that prime real estate in China's backyard. Economy is coming back!

It's half time in America... and we aint done yet!

Not usually a fan of Democrats...but seriously...Romney is the best the Republicans could do?

 

[kalu_miah]

What Euro Crisis? Russia Seeks Single Currency

It remains unclear whether the Eurasian economic space will use a supranational currency or stick with the ruble.

Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev is calling attention to the introduction of a common currency for the Eurasian Union of former Soviet countries as a hedge against growing volatility in global financial markets.

Although he noted that creating such a currency is a long-term project — the Eurasian Union is expected to start functioning in 2015 — he said it's time "to think ahead."

"It's not a matter of concern for today, but we should think about it," Medvedev told a business forum in St. Petersburg on Friday, adding that he expects the business communities of member states to participate in the discussions.

The idea of the Eurasian Union was first voiced by then-Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in October 2011.

In an article in Izvestia, Putin said the Eurasian Union would further integrate existing customs-union members Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. It would be expanded later to include more former Soviet republics, perhaps Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Introducing a single currency for the member states of the Eurasian Union would ease trade and financial relations between the countries, reduce currency exchange expenses and simplify individuals' transfer across the borders, but it's a very long-term prospect, said Alexei Portansky, a professor in the global economy and policy department at the Higher School of Economics.

"There is no sufficient economic background within the customs union to introduce the common currency over the next few years," he said.

Discussion of a single currency in Europe began in the mid-1970s, when the domestic market accounted for at least 65 percent of the region's trade, and it took more than 20 years for the euro to be introduced as the EU's single currency in 1999, Portansky said.

Russia has yet to reach those trade volumes with its customs-union peers. They accounted for less than 8 percent of its external trade in 2010, he said, citing figures from the Economic Development Ministry.

Portansky said wooing Ukraine into the customs union would bring the introduction of the common currency closer because it would significantly boost Russia's mutual trade with other bloc members.

Creating a single currency will mark the final stage of forming the Eurasian Union and help strengthen the bloc, Stanislav Bogdankevich, former chairman of the National Bank of Belarus, told RIA-Novosti on Friday.

He added that determining which country's currency becomes the basis for the bloc's monetary system will depend on the union's ultimate structure.

"If it's a broader Eurasian Union of five to six states, it's better to create a new currency," he said.

But regardless of the currency adopted, member states should learn a lesson from the eurozone, now mired in a severe debt crisis.

The first thing to do when creating a single-currency union is establish a common central authority overseeing the fiscal policy in each of the bloc's countries, something eurozone countries don't have, said Alexei Devyatov, chief economist at UralSib Capital.

"If we first create the common-currency union, leaving the tight political integration for later, as it happened in Europe, we run the risk of repeating the destiny of the European Union when small countries expand their budget deficits," he said.

But Leonid Slutsky, head of the State Duma's CIS committee, said the Eurasian Union wouldn't be "a copy of the European Union, but it could borrow the main positive factors."

Having supported Medvedev's proposal to start discussions on the common currency, Slutsky said it could be introduced shortly after 2015, when the union's structure becomes clear.

"Only then will it be clear whether it makes sense to issue a new supranational currency like the euro or probably use the Russian ruble for the common Eurasian economic space," he said.

What Euro Crisis? Russia Seeks Single Currency | Business | The Moscow Times

EU is having problems due to single currency as they adopted it too soon, before sufficient fiscal and monetary integration. Why would Russia want to make the same mistake?

They need to integrate first, recreate the Soviet Union and after taxes and budgets are integrated at the center like before, only then they should adopt single currency. Otherwise it will be a repeat of the EU debt fiasco.