Putin good for Pakistan & our Neighbourhood

[lem34]

Why Putin is driving Washington nuts
By Pepe Escobar

Forget the past (Saddam, Osama, Gaddafi) and the present (Assad, Ahmadinejad). A bet can be made over a bottle of Petrus 1989 (the problem is waiting the next six years to collect); for the foreseeable future, Washington's top bogeyman - and also for its rogue North Atlantic Treaty Organization partners and assorted media shills - will be none other than back-to-the-future Russian President Vladimir Putin.

And make no mistake; Vlad the Putinator will relish it. He's back exactly where he wants to be; as Russia's commander-in-chief, in charge of the military, foreign policy and all national security matters.

Anglo-American elites still squirm at the mention of his now legendary Munich 2007 speech, when he blasted the then George W Bush administration for its obsessively unipolar imperial agenda "through a system which has nothing to do with democracy" and non-stop overstepping of its "national borders in almost all spheres"."

So Washington and its minions have been warned. Before last Sunday's election, Putin even advertised his road map The essentials; no war on Syria; no war on Iran; no "humanitarian bombing" or fomenting "color revolutions" - all bundled into a new concept, "illegal instruments of soft power". For Putin, a Washington-engineered New World Order is a no-go. What rules is "the time-honored principle of state sovereignty".

No wonder. When Putin looks at Libya, he sees the graphic, regressive consequences of NATO's "liberation" through "humanitarian bombing"; a fragmented country controlled by al-Qaeda-linked militias; backward Cyrenaica splitting from more developed Tripolitania; and a relative of the last king brought in to rule the new "emirate" - to the delight of those model democrats of the House of Saud.

More key essentials; no US bases encircling Russia; no US missile defense without strict admission, in writing, that the system will never target Russia; and increasingly close cooperation among the BRICS group of emerging powers.

Most of this was already implied in Putin's previous road map - his paper A new integration project for Eurasia: The future in the making. That was Putin's ippon - he loves judo - against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the International Monetary Fund and hardcore neo-liberalism. He sees a Eurasian Union as a "modern economic and currency union" stretching all across Central Asia.

For Putin, Syria is an important detail (not least because of Russia's naval base in the Mediterranean port of Tartus, which NATO would love to abolish). But the meat of the matter is Eurasia integration. Atlanticists will freak out en masse as he puts all his efforts into coordinating "a powerful supranational union that can become one of the poles of today's world while being an efficient connecting link between Europe and the dynamic Asia-Pacific Region".

The opposite roadmap will be Obama and Hillary's Pacific doctrine. Now how exciting is that?

Putin plays Pipelineistan
It was Putin who almost single-handedly spearheaded the resurgence of Russia as a mega energy superpower (oil and gas accounts for two-thirds of Russia's exports, half of the federal budget and 20% of gross domestic product). So expect Pipelineistan to remain key.

And it will be mostly centered on gas; although Russia holds no less than 30% of global gas supplies, its liquid natural gas (LNG) production is less than 5% of the global market share. It's not even among the top ten producers.

Putin knows that Russia will need buckets of foreign investment in the Arctic - from the West and especially Asia - to keep its oil production above 10 million barrels a day. And it needs to strike a complex, comprehensive, trillion-dollar deal with China centered on Eastern Siberia gas fields; the oil angle has been already taken care of via the East Siberian Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline. Putin knows that for China - in terms of securing energy - this deal is a vital counterpunch against Washington's shady "pivoting" towards Asia.

Putin will also do everything to consolidate the South Stream pipeline - which may end up costing a staggering $22 billion (the shareholder agreement is already signed between Russia, Germany, France and Italy. South Stream is Russian gas delivered under the Black Sea to the southern part of the EU, through Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary and Slovakia). If South Stream is a go, rival pipeline Nabucco is checkmated; a major Russian victory against Washington pressure and Brussels bureaucrats.

Everything is still up for grabs at the crucial intersection of hardcore geopolitics and Pipelineistan. Once again Putin will be facing yet another Washington road map - the not exactly successful New Silk Road (See US's post-2014 Afghan agenda falters, Asia Times Online, Nov 4, 2011.)

And then there's the joker in the pack - the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Putin will want Pakistan to become a full member as much as China is interested in incorporating Iran. The repercussions would be ground-breaking - as in Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran coordinating not only their economic integration but their mutual security inside a strengthened SCO, whose motto is "non-alignment, non-confrontation and non-interference in the affairs of other countries".

Putin sees that with Russia, Central Asia and Iran controlling no less than 50% of world's gas reserves, and with Iran and Pakistan as virtual SCO members, the name of the game becomes Asia integration - if not Eurasia's. The SCO develops as an economic/security powerhouse, while, in parallel, Pipelineistan accelerates the full integration of the SCO as a counterpunch to NATO. The regional players themselves will decide what makes more sense - this or a New Silk Road invented in Washington.

Make no mistake. Behind the relentless demonization of Putin and the myriad attempts to delegitimize Russia's presidential elections, lie some very angry and powerful sections of Washington and Anglo-American elites.

They know Putin will be an ultra tough negotiator on all fronts. They know Moscow will apply increasingly closer coordination with China; on thwarting permanent NATO bases in Afghanistan; on facilitating Pakistan's strategic autonomy; on opposing missile defense; on ensuring Iran is not attacked.

He will be the devil of choice because there could not be a more formidable opponent in the world stage to Washington's plans - be they coded as Greater Middle East, New Silk Road, Full Spectrum Dominance or America's Pacific Century. Ladies and gentlemen, let's get ready to rumble


The only game in town is back on. It will be interesting how India's investments in Afghanistan will fair now.


http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/NC09Ag01.html

 

[Serpentine]

I like Putin,not only because of his stance against western hegemony in Asia and ME,but because he does what's the best for Russia and Russians no matter how much criticism he receives from others.That's why western media usually try to show him a dictator,because he is a strong man who doesn't fear of saying his word even if it's against the interests of western powers.
while Russia is not a dictatorship,but i believe that a strong and independent dictatorship(strong for it's enemies) is always better than a weak/puppet democracy who has no influence even in its region.
The worst situation is a weak dictatorship.

 

[DDLJ]

@Aryan_B

brother you don't know about we indians we don't work idiotic with emotions, we are the only who has kept balanced relation with US and Russia. We are not going to lose anything.

 

[lem34]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Thank you for your comment but my assertion that India had moved away from the Russians is still valid. Mr M K Bhadrakumar a former Indian respected diplomat stated:

If you could at least be kind enough to read the parts I have highlighted the picture should become a bit clearer for you as to what your rulling elites have done over the last 20 or so years

Dai Bingguo heading for Islamabad


Francis Fukuyama wrote a sequel to his celebrated book The End of History and the Last Man (1992) no sooner than he realised that he was hopelessly wrong in his prediction that the global triumph of political and economic liberalism was at hand. He wrote: “What we may be witnessing is not just the end of the Cold War, or the crossing of a particular period of postwar history, but the end of history as such… That is, the end point of mankind’s ideological evolution and the universalization of Western democracy as the final form of human government.” But in no time he realised his rush to judgment and he retracted with another book.

However, unlike the celebrated American neocon thinker, Indian foreign policy thinkers who were heavily influenced by his 1992 thesis are yet to retract. The Indian discourses through the 1990s drew heavily from Fukuyama to throw overboard the scope for reinventing or reinterpreting ‘non-alignment’ in the post-Cold War setting and came to a rapid judgment that Russia belonged to the dustbin of history. Our discourses never really got updated despite Fukumaya’s own retraction.

Indeed, western commentators also fuelled the consequent sense of insecurity in Delhi through the 1990s by endorsing that India would never have a ‘Russia option’ again and Boris Yeltsin’s Russia itself was inexorably becoming an ‘ally’ of the west — and, therefore, what alternative is there for India but to take to the New American Century project? Remember the drama of the Bill Clinton administration arm-twisting Yeltsin not to give to India the cryogentic engines?

In sum, India got entrapped in a ‘unipolar predicament’. The best elucidation of this self-invited predicament has been the masterly work titled Crossing the Rubicon by Raja Mohan, which was of course widely acclaimed in the US. While releasing the book at a function in Delhi, the then National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra even admitted that India’s main foreign policy challenge was somehow to engage the US’s “attention”.

Russia, of course, went on to prove our pundits completely wrong. Russia remerged as a global player and the evidence of it is today spread (and is poised to expand) all across global theatres — Libya, Syria, Iran, Central Asia, Afghanistan, etc.
Why I am underscoring all this is that I am strongly reminded of that sad chapter in the recent history of India’s foreign policy when I see the huge ‘psywar’ being let loose on Pakistan currently when that country too is at a crossroads with regard to its future policy directions in a highly volatile external enviornment.

In Pakistan’s case, the ‘psywar’ substitutes Russia with China. The US’s ‘Track II’ thesis is that China is hopelessly marooned in its own malaise so much so that it has no time, interest or resources to come to Pakistan’s aid, the two countries’ ‘all-weather friendship’ notwithstanding. Let me cull out two fine pieces of this ongoing ‘psywar’.

One is the lengthy article featured by America’s prestigious flag-carrier Foreign Affairs magazine in early December titled “China’s Pakistan conundrum”. Its argument is: ‘China will not simply bail out Pakistan with loans, investment, and aid, as those watching the deterioration of US-Pakistani relations seem to expect. China will pursue politics, security, and geopolitical advantage regardless of Islamabad’s preferences’. It puts forth the invidious argument that China’s real use for Pakistan is only to “box out New Delhi in Afghanistan and the broader region.”

Alongside the argument is the highly-tendentious vector that is beyond easy verification, namely, that US and China are increasingly ‘coordinating’ their policies toward Pakistan. Diplomacy is part dissimulation and we simply don’t know whether the US and China are even anywhere near beginning to ‘coordinate’ about ‘coordinating’ their regional policies in South Asia, especially with regard to Pakistan (and Afghanistan). The odds are that while the US and China may have some limited convergent interests, conceivably, their strategic interests are most certainly in sharp conflict.

A milder version of this frontal attack by US pundits on Pakistan’s existential dilemma appears in Michael Krepon’s article last week titled ‘Pakistan’s Patrons’, which, curiously, counsels Islamabad to follow India’s foreign-policy footsteps and make up with the US. Krepon literally suggests that the Pakistanis are living in a fool’s paradise.

The obvious thrust of this ‘psywar’ — strikingly similar to what India was subjected to in the 1990s — is that Pakistan has no option but to fall in line with the US regional strategies, as it has no real ‘China option’. The main difference between India and Pakistan is that the foreign policy elites in Islamabad — unlike their Indian counterparts — are not inclined to buy into the US argument with a willing suspension of disbelief. In a way, the Sino-Pakistan relationship is proving once again to be resilient. Pakistan is in no mood to get into a ‘unipolar predicament’, as the Indian elites willingly did in the 1990s.

Thus, the visit by the Chinese delegation led by State Councilor, Dai Bingguo to Islamabad at this point in time assumes much significance. Dai is one of the highest-ranking figures in the Chinese foreign-policy establishment and the fact he is leading a delegation that includes of senior Chinese military officials is very significant. Dai is scheduled to meet not only Pakistan’s political leadership at the highest level but also army chief Ashfaq Kayani and ISI head Ahmed Shuja Pasha.

Obviously, Beijing is making a big point through the timing of this visit as well, which, incidentally, is taking place at a time of great uncertainties in Pakistan’s internal affairs. When it comes to relations with China, it must be assumed that Pakistan’s civil and military leaderships are together.

Dai doesn’t really have a US counterpart as he is ranked above the FM. Arguably, it would be secretary of state Hillary Clinton. If so, to what extent Dai ‘coordinated’ his proposed visit with Clinton will be of particular interest. The future of the US’s ‘psywar’ on Pakistan is at stake.

The big question is whether this would be Dai’s last major trip to South Asia, as he is a key member of President Hu Jintao’s team and China is moving into a period of transition at the leadership level. Dai’s visit to Delhi for the Special Representatives meet was called off at the last minute.
Posted in Diplomacy, Politics.

.

By M K Bhadrakumar – December 23, 2011

Dai Bingguo heading for Islamabad - Indian Punchline

 

[ifesvr]

Thank you for your comment but my assertion that India had moved away from the Russians is still valid. Mr M K Bhadrakumar a former Indian respected diplomat stated:

Just want to point you out that this MK Bhadrakumar in rediff.com seems a useless chap churning out articles everyday, sometimes 3-4 a day.

The former Indian diplomat MK Bhadrakumar blogs at Diplomatic Perspective.
Diplomatic Perspective

So don't try to fool people.

 

[W.11]

@Aryan_B

brother you don't know about we indians we don't work idiotic with emotions, we are the only who has kept balanced relation with US and Russia. We are not going to lose anything.

you presume you will be safe as you play on both sides, its our way or the highway thats what americans or russians will dictate you after some time,you cant play on both sides and have no side effects

 

[lem34]

you presume you will be safe as you play on both sides, its our way or the highway thats what americans or russians will dictate you after some time,you cant play on both sides and have no side effects

Brother they are not playing both sides as I posted earlier they are clearly with America and just pretending to play both sides

 

[kalu_miah]

And then there's the joker in the pack - the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Putin will want Pakistan to become a full member as much as China is interested in incorporating Iran. The repercussions would be ground-breaking - as in Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran coordinating not only their economic integration but their mutual security inside a strengthened SCO, whose motto is "non-alignment, non-confrontation and non-interference in the affairs of other countries".

SCO can be an economic block, any country in the world can trade freely with any other country, no one should be worried about that, it is purely business. Problem begins when people start thinking about political integration. Will the Russians want Muslim Central Asians back in their country, will they want to join China, Iran or Pakistan in a political union, the possibilities are next to none. One can just step over to stormfront website briefly to witness the ground reality of where people's politically incorrect sentiment lies. Russia has always been part of Europe, it has gotten where it has gotten following Europe, it has no other choice but to join the Europeans, eventually. Current drive by the Putin led elite is to continue the rule of his corrupt group, while suppressing people power. Eventually this corrupt class of oligarchs (many of whom are ex-KGB officials) will have to reform or be overthrown by a democratic organized opposition. Only after we have a more democratic govt. in Russia, will we be able to see a more reliable long term direction of Russia. For now it is just hot air from the likes of Pepe and Putin.

Smaller countries of the world need to think in terms of future political unions and throw their lot with potential partners, as I mentioned here:
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/164048-kalu_miahs-new-world-order-road-map-future.html

Economic integration always help, but trade preference and mutual investments should be made to strengthen future family members rather than people who may become future security threat. This is following the simple motto, that one cannot rely on borrowed strength, only when we ourselves are strong and standing on our feet, can we make sure that no one else will dare to walk over us.

Russia's threat comes not from the West, but from the large demographic tower of China sitting so close to the sparsely populated Eastern Siberia, where they are moving in large numbers to lease farmland and as farm workers. The current elite is making short term decisions to make money over-looking the long term security threat. It will be better for Russian people and the world to get over the cold war days, stop being an agent of China, think about their long term national interest and replace these nonsensical leaders who seem to be shooting at their collective foot.

 

[mrwarrior006]

Originally Posted by Aryan_B

Brother they are not playing both sides as I posted earlier they are clearly with America and just pretending to play both sides

^^^ again wrong its not us with america its pakistan who is with america its actually pakistan who brought america in this region

 

[lem34]

Just want to point you out that this MK Bhadrakumar in rediff.com seems a useless chap churning out articles everyday, sometimes 3-4 a day.

The former Indian diplomat MK Bhadrakumar blogs at Diplomatic Perspective.
Diplomatic Perspective



So don't try to fool people.

I think you are mistaken. But then that's a matter for you.

 

[lem34]

Originally Posted by Aryan_B

^^^ again wrong its not us with america its pakistan who is with america its actually pakistan who brought america in this region

Some Pakistani leaders have been bribed to support America. But the majority of the people in Pakistan are far more anti American and in any event Russia china Iran and Pakistan's interests in the region converge so no matter what may have been in the past the leaders can only play with the hand they have been dealt with.

 

[mrwarrior006]

Some Pakistani leaders have been bribed to support America. But the majority of the people in Pakistan are far more anti American and in any event Russia china Iran and Pakistan's interests in the region converge so no matter what may have been in the past the leaders can only play with the hand they have been dealt with.

Don lie dude its the same people who cheered when america gave u f16
i still remem as u guys cheer for china u guys used to do it for america

 

[lem34]

Don lie dude its the same people who cheered when america gave u f16
i still remem as u guys cheer for china u guys used to do it for america

Casting assertions on a forum member or personal attacks say more about you than me. I expected better of you. Pakistan and America have never been on the same page no matter how misguided some Pakistani leaders have been about America

 

[Fekay]

Originally Posted by Aryan_B

^^^ again wrong its not us with america its pakistan who is with america its actually pakistan who brought america in this region

One cannot bring Americans into region, they come when it suits their interests and to suggest otherwise would be ludicrous. Pakistan is not WITH US, she(pakistan)is being pressured into obedience and the sediments of an average pakistani would be evidence to this... Once pakistan gets a-hold of itself, US will have to leave.

 

[W.11]

Originally Posted by Aryan_B

^^^ again wrong its not us with america its pakistan who is with america its actually pakistan who brought america in this region

nobody brings america, infact america tries to break into everybody's home