Well most people don't find a company when they plan to commit suicide...
Last time he waged a war against state institutuons but couldn't capture due to lack of support by the people and the Army. I remember 50 or so people were killed in K-P that night due to floods and their CM was busy dancing on the stage showing no signs of interest for his people and assuming the government is likely to be sent home anytime soon
Not sure if they have better strategy and may use weapons or it may be another toothless coup by PTI once again.
I am in favour of routing out corrupt leaders but not on the basis of anarchy
Sir, this is exactly how many of us felt the first time this happen, I and other members who had supported PTI in 2013, parted ways from them. In short, their aims though admirable can't justify their means, which include bringing about political instability, upheaval of the system rather than reform, and all while they do not have the popular support for such brazen actions.
Can PTI win an election ?
It's unlikely.
PTI will claim many things about corruption and vote rigging as reason for their inability to win elections. If you ask me, to go from nothing to where they are now in opposition is a massive victory. But they are
unlikely to ever be able to form a government IMHO.
I state the reasons for this
here and
here.
PTI's popularity won't have changed much, if not slightly dipped, but the opposition factor is a boost. The real problem that is killing PTI's chances of ever forming a government is that their votes are scattered through constituencies, so in a
First Past the Post system (FPTP), they'll lose.
Eg. if party x, y and z are running for elections in FPTP system. If their average vote share is 10% for x, 35% for y and 55% for z. Party z will likely form government and y opposition. But in terms of seats, party x might not have 10% seats, they may well have zero seats. If in a constituency smaller parties get 30-40% of the vote, but lose the constituency, then that vote isn't represented at all.
PTI has similar problems, they have support throughout the country, with varying intensity, lots of it in KPK, lots in some parts of Punjab, some support in Balochistan even and Sindh, and for a while in Karachi too. But they don't have enough concentrated support in enough constituencies, so that their voters who might represent 20% of all votes in constituencies they've lost translate to zero seats in NA. This is evident as in 2013,
PTI got 17% of the vote share and only 10% of the seats (35 out of 342). Whereas the sitting government,
PMLN, managed to form government with only 32.77% of the vote share and 48% of the seats (166 out of 342). That's because PTI's vote is spread over many constituencies whereas PMLN's is concentrated, and FPTP rewards regional parties with heartlands like PMLN.
If PTI wants a chance of winning, it should campaign hard in marginal constituencies, go after weak seats outside of Punjab and marginals within. Serious thought needs to be given to the system if they want any chance of being successful. It seems there isn't much effort in this direction, more on protests, and shouting about the government, which won't help them. It makes one wonder whether there's a single election strategist within the PTI's ranks.
I might publish a full article on this sometime, because there's more to it, and I can only explain this so well in condensed form.
References:
http://www.na.gov.pk/en/party-stats.php
http://thecommonwealth.org/sites/default/files/project/documents/Pakistan General Elections 2013 Commonwealth Observer Mission Report.pdf
http://www.electionpakistani.com/ge2013/party-postion.html
