Projection of Naval Modernization

[Quwa]

This analysis is based on information from PakDef and defence media...however there are personal inferences and projections. There is no guarantee, but this isn't a wishlist and is based on hard facts that you may see yourselves on PakDef if you wish.

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Some issues:

I am kind of unsure of H Khan's own definition of F-22P, he terms it a frigate, pshamim said it was a corvette-class and I think it is corvette class. So I will use a consensus, and we'll have to wait & see what happens. However if you compare the displacement & weapon-systems of F-22P and the modern frigate - including an upgraded Oliver Hazard Perry - you'll see why some call it "corvette class".

Also, the following may seem a bit overbearing and very unrealistic...but please bear with me as I post this. There is a lot of wisdom behind a strong navy, but I am certain that the pace, numbers and quality will shock you. Do not worry, this is not a wish list, and I will for certain give you the links.
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Submarines:

The PN is close to finalizing a deal for 3 Type-214 SSKs from HDW of Germany; these would augment the 3 Agosta-90B and 2 Agosta-70. According to DefenceNews the PN has a requirement for 12-14 SSKs, however these will not include the Agosta-70s; they are nearing their age (retirement). Basically 6 additional SSKs will be required for the minimum need, and I am unsure if this can be covered by 2019. If all produced in Pakistan - even the standard export U214, the induction time will cross 2020 and border 2030. The alternative would be a massive expansion in production, essentially using yards in Gwadar and Port Qasim.

Frigates:

The PN has a requirement for 14 new frigates by 2021. According to H Khan, 8 new ones will supplement the 6 Type-21s, and the Type-21s will be replaced by 2021 by another design. For the initial 8 (A-Group), the PN is looking at the Chinese Type-054 and German MEKO - which I think would be close to A-200.

Due to the immediate tone of the requirement, I do not think either of these frigates will be armed with intended air defence. For example, if MEKO A-200 is chosen, then PN would likely arm it with a PDMS like Rolling Airframe Missile or Umkhonto-IR - reducing costs. Similarly if Type-054 is chosen, the PN would look at the Chinese RAM, or even the same system employed on F-22P. However over the long-term, this should be rectified, and these ships would be upgraded with proper systems such as Aster-15 SAAM, HH-16, etc.

The Group-A designs will likely be produced in Germany or China entirely, i.e. no transfer for local production in this case. I think the PN will have to focus on time and cost, and will keep armament to relatively minimum standards. Personally I think the MEKO A-200 has a high chance - indicated by H Khan who said PN is hoping to foster stronger ties with Germany. The MEKO A-200 has already been produced for South Africa, hence the design and production stage should be cheaper than say the newer MEKO Delta-series.

However there is Group-B of 6 new frigates which will replace the Type-21s by 2021. According to H Khan, these frigates will be produced in Pakistan and PN wants them to be of a design developed with help from both Germany and Turkey. Personally I suspect these to be of a larger displacement - i.e. 5000-6000 tonnes - and up to 4 may be equipped with long-range anti-air warfare capabilities.

Corvettes:

These include F-22P and MILGEM. The PN ordered 4 F-22P and is close to finalizing a contract for 4 MILGEM from Turkey. The MILGEM order is expected to take 10 years for the first 4 ships. H Khan indicated that the PN may procure another 4 F-22P, and I suspect this will build a fleet of 12 near-coast & ASW oriented vessels. In the long-run it is possible and likely that the 8 F-22P will be replaced by MILGEM, perhaps a larger version of the corvette. However this program will cross 2020 and border 2030.

 

[asaad-ul-islam]

I've read the posts, very confusing? have you considered that F-22P, or talwar class as he puts it, are within the 14 ship requirement (cut down due to economy, original for AFDP-2019 included more)? I seriously hope not.

 

[Quwa]

I've read the posts, very confusing? have you considered that F-22P, or talwar class as he puts it, are within the 14 ship requirement (cut down due to economy, original for AFDP-2019 included more)? I seriously hope not.

I considered it...but the issue was that he didn't include it in the 14 ship plan in his original post...and then in the later one it still doesn't make sense. For one the capability of F-22P is the same as MILGEM (if not less)...what the heck is it doing with MEKO/Type-054/OHP/New-Gen FFG? The other fact is that I have 2 other known sources who put F-22P in the same league as corvettes...such as pshamim and waz. In fact waz said that the 8 FFG requirement includes medium-types such as MEKO and Type-054...while he put the other FFG requirement at 4, while H Khan at 6.

 

[asaad-ul-islam]

I considered it...but the issue was that he didn't include it in the 14 ship plan in his original post...and then in the later one it still doesn't make sense. For one the capability of F-22P is the same as MILGEM (if not less)...what the heck is it doing with MEKO/Type-054/OHP/New-Gen FFG? The other fact is that I have 2 other known sources who put F-22P in the same league as corvettes...such as pshamim and waz. In fact waz said that the 8 FFG requirement includes medium-types such as MEKO and Type-054...while he put the other FFG requirement at 4, while H Khan at 6.

from what I can understand, waz made mention of around 30 ships. I'm guessing we've cut that order down. still, waz made a lot of sense, the 8 vessels from the "8 multi-mission frigate" requirement supporting three to four flagships. I hope we can get our hands on the MEKO-D 600 for the flagship requirement, seeing how we've already entered the german market.

it would fit the role perfectly, being able to fire naval SAMs for AAW and LACM's (vessel is large enough to carry) for land attack capability. though, waz said the PN is looking acquire at least four type 054 separately from the frigate requirement. for the "8 frigate requirement", I think it's better if we go ahead with type 054. these can provide most of the AAW cover with the chinese SAM's, which will be far more easily available to us compared to the aster missiles, and will be a lot more cheaper.

 

[Quwa]

from what I can understand, waz made mention of around 30 ships. I'm guessing we've cut that order down. still, waz made a lot of sense, the 8 vessels from the "8 multi-mission frigate" requirement supporting three to four flagships. I hope we can get our hands on the MEKO-D 600 for the flagship requirement, seeing how we've already entered the german market.

it would fit the role perfectly, being able to fire naval SAMs for AAW and LACM's (vessel is large enough to carry) for land attack capability. though, waz said the PN is looking acquire at least four type 054 separately from the frigate requirement. for the "8 frigate requirement", I think it's better if we go ahead with type 054. these can provide most of the AAW cover with the chinese SAM's, which will be far more easily available to us compared to the aster missiles, and will be a lot more cheaper.

I count 26, but then pshamim mentioned the possibility of PN acquiring MRTP-70...those are smaller corvettes with space for one helicopter to land...4 of those perhaps? Personally speaking I'd rather have us 8 MEKO A-200 or Delta at 350 tonnes for the 8 medium-FFG requirement. While more expensive, I seriously think we need to move away from China in certain areas...and naval is the beginning. This field gives us opportunity to explore cooperation with new partners - i.e. Turkey, South Africa, Brazil and Germany. Forget Aster-15, I think we can develop with others something of similar standard and be able to apply it to many of our ships...as well as offer export variants. There are no long-term friends...we learn, we adopt and we move on.

 

[asaad-ul-islam]

I count 26, but then pshamim mentioned the possibility of PN acquiring MRTP-70...those are smaller corvettes with space for one helicopter to land...4 of those perhaps?

what is the class name for the MRTP-70? I can't find anything by that name, with the exception of MRTP-33. I"m guessing the PN is trying to have a double layered navy, one to protect the coast, the other for blue water?

Personally speaking I'd rather have us 8 MEKO A-200 or Delta at 350 tonnes for the 8 medium-FFG requirement. While more expensive, I seriously think we need to move away from China in certain areas...and naval is the beginning. This field gives us opportunity to explore cooperation with new partners - i.e. Turkey, South Africa, Brazil and Germany. Forget Aster-15, I think we can develop with others something of similar standard and be able to apply it to many of our ships...as well as offer export variants. There are no long-term friends...we learn, we adopt and we move on.

I agree with your take on how we should move away from china, and cooperate more with south africa, definitely turkey, and possibly even brazil. however, the germans are charging a hefty price on their products. still, getting technology transfers on anything german will be good in the long-run for Pakistan, considering the fact that we strive to be NATO-standard.

type 054 is not a bad ship, aside from the 8 frigate requirement, I think we should still try to get these ships. it has a nice, clean hull design similar to the lafayette. it's more likely to come with technology transfer, and I stress this for the long-term. soon, we may see high-altitude AAW coverage with the HH-16 naval SAMs. also, we can integrate and fit weapons, sonars, command&control systems of our own later on, which would be more difficult to do on western platforms. more importantly, it's cheap, and can come in numbers which always comes first in naval warfare.

although the aster 15 will be difficult to get, it's probably the best SAM out there right now. it can expand its role to even take on ballistic missile threats, thanks to its high maneuverability. if, by any chance, we do manage to get our hands on it, I seriosly hope our scientists/engineers take a look at it.

 

[Quwa]

MRTP-70...no joke:
http://img159.imageshack.us/img159/502/mrtp70pt0.jpg

Secondly, I think Pakistan might be able to pull some financial concessions from the Germans as there will still be more Type-214s and then cooperation on the Group-B frigates (6 ships). The basic MEKO A-200 will not cost as much as its nearest French counterparts...IMO the German goods offer the biggest bang for the buck. On one hand you can absolutely be sure of the quality and performance, and on the other the price isn't that high.

As for air defence, I think Pakistan can acquire Aster-15 SAAM...there shouldn't be too many strings attached...we have good ties with MBDA. However there are other options, we can work on our equivalent with assistance from South Africa's Denel, Brazil's Mectron and Germany's Diehl BGT...for example a naval version of IRIS-T SL...which is being developed for export.

 

[asaad-ul-islam]

MRTP-70...no joke:
http://img159.imageshack.us/img159/502/mrtp70pt0.jpg

damn... you can fit a lot more than just what it says on there. it's perfect, relations with turkey will pay off, just like they are starting to pay off with china.

Secondly, I think Pakistan might be able to pull some financial concessions from the Germans as there will still be more Type-214s and then cooperation on the Group-B frigates (6 ships). The basic MEKO A-200 will not cost as much as its nearest French counterparts...IMO the German goods offer the biggest bang for the buck. On one hand you can absolutely be sure of the quality and performance, and on the other the price isn't that high.

As for air defence, I think Pakistan can acquire Aster-15 SAAM...there shouldn't be too many strings attached...we have good ties with MBDA. However there are other options, we can work on our equivalent with assistance from South Africa's Denel, Brazil's Mectron and Germany's Diehl BGT.

agreed, current deals with Germans will definitely make an impact on prices. they need all the customers they can get, and one must admit, looking at how many deals they've won over-U-214, MEKO, etc.- either they're really good at marketing or they're offering serious stuff.

they offer the best technology that's available, including for themselves. it's not the case when it comes to the US or China. south africa is progressing in their "recent" quest for SAMs, they always need partners to fund their projects. we both know for a fact Pakistan and Brazil are almost always involved.

 

[Quwa]

damn... you can fit a lot more than just what it says on there. it's perfect, relations with turkey will pay off, just like they are starting to pay off with china.


agreed, current deals with Germans will definitely make an impact on prices. they need all the customers they can get, and one must admit, looking at how many deals they've won over-U-214, MEKO, etc.- either they're really good at marketing or they're offering serious stuff.

they offer the best technology that's available, including for themselves. it's not the case when it comes to the US or China. south africa is progressing in their "recent" quest for SAMs, they always need partners to fund their projects. we both know for a fact Pakistan and Brazil are almost always involved.

Alternate to the MBDA Aster-15 SAAM is the naval IRIS-T SL being developed...I honestly think the issue has more or less been solved. Now I am unsure if ToT will be offered, but again looking at the requirement - 20+ ships capable of using this system...and the PAF may also use IRIS-T as its 5th.gen WVRAAM and PA may use IRIS-T SL.

 

[asaad-ul-islam]

what I'm really looking forward to is the TF-2000, especially if it's a carbon copy of the KDX-III. we can have "arleigh burke" like destroyers dominating the sea lanes. that would be some mad firepower. I'd estimate the turkish vessel to be a bit smaller, but that would still pack at least 90-100 VLS cells. of course, Turkey would most likely go with the SM-2 and we would need to find our own naval SAM's.

this depends on cooperation between south korea and turkey, which looks really good right now. I can remember korean online news sources pointing to turkey's interest in the Dokdo class LPD, and there's the altay battle tank.

 

[asaad-ul-islam]

Alternate to the MBDA Aster-15 SAAM is the naval IRIS-T SL being developed...I honestly think the issue has more or less been solved. Now I am unsure if ToT will be offered, but again looking at the requirement - 20+ ships capable of using this system...and the PAF may also use IRIS-T as its 5th.gen WVRAAM and PA may use IRIS-T SL.

looks similar to the Aster, File:BGT IRIS-T SL-2.jpg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

if the system is reliable as its MBDA couterpart, we can offer to buy it in large numbers with the German ships. I'm sure the germans will throw some technology transfer.

 

[Quwa]

We can use these opportunities to develop our own long-range SAMs. I remember H Khan saying that Pakistan was developing a long-range SAM with the help of 2 undisclosed countries...fact that China wasn't outright mentioned makes be suspect cooperation with them is relatively shallow. Our Group-B frigates will not come before 2021, probably a little later and the time to equip them may touch 2030, etc...I am sure we'll have something by then.

Regarding IRIS-T, a lot is possible. Firstly if the PAF chose IRIS-T, it could arm them on the F-16s, JF-17s and potentially FC-20s - assuming we customize them to that level. Secondly Usman Shabbir said PA has kept a 2nd medium-range SAM choice open, and may choose SL-AMRAAM - but I think it may go for IRIS-T SL once demo models are available. Last issue is the PN's general short to medium-range SAM requirements...this will arm the 8 Group-A frigates, 6 Group-B frigates, maybe 12 enhanced MILGEM/F-22P and maybe even MRTP-70. I am certain generic export version can be offered to us with local production under some strict re-export conditions...no problem for us.

 

[asaad-ul-islam]

I'm getting quite tired of hearing "ToT". if there are naval architects in Pakistan, and naval architects being recruited from abroad as some of our sources indicate, we should be able to at least develop a hull. we need to develop and field weapons made with our own brain cells.

personally, I think our organizations are too afraid to do anything on their own, budget aside. we need to take a chance and start long-term projects of our own. it will be a good learning experience for us, and who knows, we may even see the birth of private defense contractors like Raytheon.

some of my relatives, including my father, have worked with these defense contracting companies (not necessarily related to what you see). there are pakistanis working here in the US, and ironically, you can find people who've previously worked at NESCOM! it's no joke, they leave because of the arrogant attitudes of some generals and other idiots who are too afraid to dream.

all we need is the will, the rest is just engineering. looking at our successful track record, I don't see why we don't bother. our people have a lot of potential, and when I say there's pakistanis working for lockheed, raytheon, or boeing, I mean it.

you'd be amazed at how much technology is commercially available or COTS. then there's the intelligence agencies going on missions to recruit pakistani expats. trust me, we can do a lot. take a look at our babur cruise missiles. we played around with the tomahawks, and the chinese took a look at it too. however, there's something they haven't even come up with which we have. we've developed throttle control technology with our enginers. just look at how surprised everyone was, I mean NO ONE knew that this was coming. you can find senior pakistanis posting their resumes online, I've found an engineer who's worked with the shaheen missile launching mechanism. there's a lot of potential.

 

[asaad-ul-islam]

We can use these opportunities to develop our own long-range SAMs. I remember H Khan saying that Pakistan was developing a long-range SAM with the help of 2 undisclosed countries...fact that China wasn't outright mentioned makes be suspect cooperation with them is relatively shallow. Our Group-B frigates will not come before 2021, probably a little later and the time to equip them may touch 2030, etc...I am sure we'll have something by then.

Regarding IRIS-T, a lot is possible. Firstly if the PAF chose IRIS-T, it could arm them on the F-16s, JF-17s and potentially FC-20s - assuming we customize them to that level. Secondly Usman Shabbir said PA has kept a 2nd medium-range SAM choice open, and may choose SL-AMRAAM - but I think it may go for IRIS-T SL once demo models are available. Last issue is the PN's general short to medium-range SAM requirements...this will arm the 8 Group-A frigates, 6 Group-B frigates, maybe 12 enhanced MILGEM/F-22P and maybe even MRTP-70. I am certain generic export version can be offered to us with local production under some strict re-export conditions...no problem for us.

how long ago did he mention development of the SAM? the chinese are only ones who can help with that. our recent tender for high-altitude SAMs had technology transfer as a requirement, Musharraf clearly stated the europeans were out of the competition because they did not offer ToT, leaving the chinese.

keeping in mind the tender was placed a while ago and has most likely already been fulfilled, I've tried to do some searching of my own. I've asked usman on PakDef, he wouldn't mention. now, I did find an article a while ago, based of a US govt. report, that Pakistan may have acquired the FT-2000. however, sinodefence states the missile went out of production due to the lack of interest.

IRIS-T SL or even some south african project (not umkhonto) can be good for our corvettes (if modified) and smaller frigates, since they are much smaller in size. IMO, however we need to focus on high-altitude SAMs, especially for the larger ships. which brings us back to the type 054 and the HQ-9 of HH-16. the indians (if successful, which I doubt) will at least try to acquire three aircraft carriers. we need some serious high-altitude AAW coverage in the future. if you can get the picture, I'm thinking AAW vessels like the arleigh burke class but smaller, loaded with some serious firepower.

I'm sure Aster 15 or even 30, and IRIS-T SL can come with the european vessels, but we cannot acquire those in serious numbers when it comes to the larger frigates/destroyers due to price. I'm sure the MEKO-A can come at a cheaper cost, though I'm not sure as to whether those ships can use the Aster 15.

 

[TOPGUN]

We can use all we can get we must build a strong Navel force to contour future suprises as well as defend or coast line!