Featured Project Azm: Pakistan's Ambitious Quest to Develop 5th Generation Military Technologies.

[CrazyZ]

Pakistan should attempt development of a 5th gen airframe. How much could it be, probably $400 million if done fast and efficiently? Thats the cost for 2 or 3 current block F16s. Avionics and engines can be imported. We need to continue to develop our indigenous industry's. It makes us more resilient.

 

[khanasifm]

Business community urged to capitalize on investment opportunities in aviation industry https://nation.com.pk/19-Apr-2019/b...investment-opportunities-in-aviation-industry

 

[CriticalThought]

The big benefit of dual engine -- besides potential for more range and payload -- is that you (as @JamD said) could get engine commonality with the JF-17. So if you intend to have a future JF-17 variant with a next-gen engine, you can apply two of those engines to Azm. It'll be much costlier too, but if the future is to do a Hi/Lo of Azm and (for a lack of better term) 'JF-17 NG', then the 'JF-17 NG' is there to fill in gaps in case of Azm procurement issues.

But manufacturing two fighters is another question entirely, and it makes me wonder, if we go that route could we spin off the JF-17 to the private sector so that PAC focuses on Azm?

Let us look at modern fighter jets today.

Single Engine Jets:
1. F-35.
2. F-16.
3. Gripen.
4. JF-17.
5. Mirage 2K.
6. Tejas.

Twin engine:
1. F-22.
2. F-18.
3. F-15.
4. Su-35.
5. Su-30.
6. Mig-35.
7. Mig-29.
8. Rafale.
9. Eurofighter Typhoon.

Moving forward, all publicly available 6th gen designs are twin engine. The single engine jet of the future, F-35, has a monstrously powerful engine. Now, which countries are users of these jets?

Fourth gen single engines are mostly in use by countries such in Scandinavia and other parts of Europe. These nations generally operate as part of a larger coalition, and it is well known they could not withstand a determined onslaught individually. Then there is Japan and Middle East which pair them with twin engine fighters. Finally there are African and South American users who have no prospects of projecting power beyond national boundaries.

Twin engine jets are popular throughout the world amongst nations that intend to project power beyond their own borders. Coming to Pakistan, the expansion of our EEZ and threats in Afghanistan necessitate power projection capabilities. The planners at PAC and PAF will be looking at Pakistan's obligations and engagements in the next fifty years. The choice of single vs twin engine will reveal Pakistan's strategic ambitions to the world. Which is why, I do not expect to see any official revelation about Azm any time soon.

I have only one thing to day. The only sustainable and logical way towards Azm is the gradual expansion of our indigenous capabilities. Just the fact that PAC is only involved in local manufacture only is a red flag for me. Without an indigenous iteration of Thunder, my confidence is low in PAC's ability to truly accomplish what they state. Of course, it is easy to import a J-31 design and fine tune it. But that raises more questions: What research/experiments have been performed to determine the efficacy/vulnerability of J-31 in the face of modern anti-stealth threats? What design alternatives were considered? How will they ensure PAF's superiority in the face of growing Indo-American partnership and transfer of technology? If they must import the J-31 design, what credentials do they have that we should trust them with planning for defence against evolving 6th gen threats? These are the questions that make me uncomfortable.

Finally, let us make no mistakes that the F-16 took decades to build for very good reasons. No knowledgeable person will buy the proposition that we built some indigenous design in two years. This is a statement for the appeasement of illiterate masses.

 

[CrazyZ]

Let us look at modern fighter jets today.

Single Engine Jets:
1. F-35.
2. F-16.
3. Gripen.
4. JF-17.
5. Mirage 2K.
6. Tejas.

Twin engine:
1. F-22.
2. F-18.
3. F-15.
4. Su-35.
5. Su-30.
6. Mig-35.
7. Mig-29.
8. Rafale.
9. Eurofighter Typhoon.

Moving forward, all publicly available 6th gen designs are twin engine. The single engine jet of the future, F-35, has a monstrously powerful engine. Now, which countries are users of these jets?

Fourth gen single engines are mostly in use by countries such in Scandinavia and other parts of Europe. These nations generally operate as part of a larger coalition, and it is well known they could not withstand a determined onslaught individually. Then there is Japan and Middle East which pair them with twin engine fighters. Finally there are African and South American users who have no prospects of projecting power beyond national boundaries.

Twin engine jets are popular throughout the world amongst nations that intend to project power beyond their own borders. Coming to Pakistan, the expansion of our EEZ and threats in Afghanistan necessitate power projection capabilities. The planners at PAC and PAF will be looking at Pakistan's obligations and engagements in the next fifty years. The choice of single vs twin engine will reveal Pakistan's strategic ambitions to the world. Which is why, I do not expect to see any official revelation about Azm any time soon.

I have only one thing to day. The only sustainable and logical way towards Azm is the gradual expansion of our indigenous capabilities. Just the fact that PAC is only involved in local manufacture only is a red flag for me. Without an indigenous iteration of Thunder, my confidence is low in PAC's ability to truly accomplish what they state. Of course, it is easy to import a J-31 design and fine tune it. But that raises more questions: What research/experiments have been performed to determine the efficacy/vulnerability of J-31 in the face of modern anti-stealth threats? What design alternatives were considered? How will they ensure PAF's superiority in the face of growing Indo-American partnership and transfer of technology? If they must import the J-31 design, what credentials do they have that we should trust them with planning for defence against evolving 6th gen threats? These are the questions that make me uncomfortable.

Finally, let us make no mistakes that the F-16 took decades to build for very good reasons. No knowledgeable person will buy the proposition that we built some indigenous design in two years. This is a statement for the appeasement of illiterate masses.

Modern aircraft and developed on a block incremental upgrade basis. The original F-16 airframe did not take decades to design. It was developed in a few years, then upgraded on a routine basis.

East Asia has a very effective strategy...called fast following. You wait for the USA to spend largest amounts of RD to develop the lead design....then you copy it as fast as possible. A lot of the initial RD costs and head aches were done by the USA. That's how Samsung copied the iPhone...in a few months.

The airframes for 5 gen aircraft already exist. F35, F22, and various chinese and Russian aircraft. Copy the shape as much as possible as fast as possible. Can be done in a few years. Start with scale models and drones. Once we are confident in the airframe design then we build a full size aircraft.

 

[Silicon0000]

Why some people think we should choose J31 as we don't develop 5th gen aircraft. Remember there are things between getting finnished product and doing completely indigenous development. We can always have JF17 route and likely follow same for 5th gen with some variation in % work share.

 

[Umar Nazir]

ALLAH na kere kabe aesa ho lekin ager economy theek na hoe 2 3 sal ma tou Project Azm choro , Project JF-17
b rokna pere ga

 

[Philip the Arab]

Can a stealth version of the JF-17 be made kind of like the F-15 stealth eagle? Make weapons internally, and add RAM paint which should reduce RCS a whole lot. It could be a stop-gap measure until a 5th gen fighter is built and will give an edge to the JF-17 over the IAF aircraft.

 

[Trango Towers]

Pakistan should attempt development of a 5th gen airframe. How much could it be, probably $400 million if done fast and efficiently? Thats the cost for 2 or 3 current block F16s. Avionics and engines can be imported. We need to continue to develop our indigenous industry's. It makes us more resilient.

Airframe design isnt that simple.

 

[LKJ86]

Can a stealth version of the JF-17 be made kind of like the F-15 stealth eagle? Make weapons internally, and add RAM paint which should reduce RCS a whole lot. It could be a stop-gap measure until a 5th gen fighter is built and will give an edge to the JF-17 over the IAF aircraft.

F-15SE is dead.

 

[Philip the Arab]

F-15SE is dead.

And? Israel had better options hence why they didn't buy it. The F-15SE is much better than any F-15 in terms of stealth capabilties.

 

[CrazyZ]

Can a stealth version of the JF-17 be made kind of like the F-15 stealth eagle? Make weapons internally, and add RAM paint which should reduce RCS a whole lot. It could be a stop-gap measure until a 5th gen fighter is built and will give an edge to the JF-17 over the IAF aircraft.

JF17 is too small for a complete stealth design since it can't carry weapons internally. It already has a low rcs. Combined with jamming it be hard to hit.

Airframe design isnt that simple.

Not saying it is. But it is not impossible for a country will millions of good engineers and a well trained pilots that can provide input. Main issue is budget.

 

[Riz]

Airframe design isnt that simple.

We have material of the US stealth helicopter which was crashed in abotabad... Not difficult to copy that material

 

[CriticalThought]

Modern aircraft and developed on a block incremental upgrade basis. The original F-16 airframe did not take decades to design. It was developed in a few years, then upgraded on a routine basis.

East Asia has a very effective strategy...called fast following. You wait for the USA to spend largest amounts of RD to develop the lead design....then you copy it as fast as possible. A lot of the initial RD costs and head aches were done by the USA. That's how Samsung copied the iPhone...in a few months.

The airframes for 5 gen aircraft already exist. F35, F22, and various chinese and Russian aircraft. Copy the shape as much as possible as fast as possible. Can be done in a few years. Start with scale models and drones. Once we are confident in the airframe design then we build a full size aircraft.

The F-16 took decades to fully mature. Even then, I agree that F-16 Block 15 was the finest dog fighter of its time.

But there is a fundamental difference F-16 and F-35. PAF was the first to battle test the F-16. Thunder has been created from our Viper experience.

On the other hand, we have zero experience and training on F-35. Have you noticed none of the Muslim countries have been given access to it? You can't just blindly copy an airframe when you have no idea about:

1. Its aerodynamic performance.
2. Its stealth characteristics.
3. Its proper place and context within the larger ORBAT.

Which is why, it is essential to use Thunder as a testbed by making small changes and experimenting with them. Each cycle should lead to inducting 20+ aircrafts into PAF. Once such indigenously updated jets have passed FOC, we will have the necessary experience and research insight to tackle the harder problem.

 

[Syed1.]

Cannot compare development time lines of newer tech with older tech. Just because developing an F-16 took decades or several years doesn't mean AZM will also take that long. Besides Pak is not trying to reinvent the wheel, there is already data available or atleast guidelines of what needs to be done to develop a 5th Gen airframe. We have helping hand from China who already has not one but two 5th gen jets. They are trying to improve on them by building a new engine. We wouldn't be building a new engine for Azm and instead would be taking an off-the-shelf solution.

Also to give an example of technological timelines, the advancement in computational speed of 2019 cellphones versus 2018 cellphones is greater than what advancement took place in computers from 1950 to 1970.

 

[Trango Towers]

We have material of the US stealth helicopter which was crashed in abotabad... Not difficult to copy that material

Bro...i did aircraft design at Cranfield. Trust me designing an aircraft is hard. Materials tech is particularly hard and reverse engineering is not easy. Having said that Pakistan is a capable nation and i know for sure the PAC will do its best