Hi, older block JF-17s cannot be upgraded to Block 3. In addition, I believe F-16s cannot be rebuilt over and over like Mirages. To what extent the earliest F-16s can be kept flying, particularly with rather higher use-age against India in recent months, is open to question.
Pakistan isn't in peace time really, there are constant tensions at the borders. This means using up far more flight hours. How long will Pakistan keep the oldest F-16s flying? This is not even discussing F-16 supply issues that could crop up in the near future, once US doesn't need Pakistan's help in AFG.
The third option is to build an Azm with the JF-17's general FCS, radar, EW, etc (from Block 3) and put it in a larger and more stealthier airframe with a WS-10 /WS-15 engine. Basically going the Super Hornet route.
This is possible in 5-6 years. And would allow the continuation of a local manufactured fighter, unlike with the other options, which will essentially be either manufactured in China or locally assembled.
Meaning, Pakistan would be going two steps back from building its own fighters to essentially importing fighters from broad.
Off the shelf purchase of J-31s would not be a substitute for the Project Azm program. Both will be able to compliment one another. PAF would def require an initial order of 40-50 J-31s which may increase to a total of 75-110. Dont know about Raad integration in the J-31 but it does not seem to have the same low flight clearance issues as the JF-17 since it is a larger aircraft. So being able to carry cruise missiles the size of Raad externally is not a known issue.
It's important to remember that Pakistan's industrial/technology planning and military planning happens from the same palm. In other words, if for some reason urgency becomes a factor (i.e., a military issue), then it'll basically shape the development side.
The last CAS, ACM Sohail Aman, started with the goal of developing an FGFA alone, but he entertained the idea of collaboration and partnerships (with Turkey and China). The current CAS, ACM Mujahid Anwar Khan, had liked the idea of developing an FGFA alone, but he said that as long as the design is ITAR-free, they'll be happy to roll into a consortium. Basically, AZM is heading towards a consortium direction.
In other words, to save on time and cost, Pakistan is not going to manage the bulk of the design work or even much of the technology development. It'll help with production (by taking up a sizable % of the workshare, and ideally, contribute to the supply chain of all primary partners).
I wouldn't say it's a step backwards from the JF-17. Rather, it's a lateral step or continuation of what PAC is kind of doing already. If anything, if the PAF can access China's supply channel by manufacturing stabilizer, fuselage, etc, PAC will end up with a lot more work on its hands.
Basically, the PAF has to choose between:
1. Expediency, but probably no major workshare output (China)
2. Major workshare output, but a slow and higher-risk project (Turkey)
However, while China would say no to placing some of its military supply chain in Pakistan, it may entertain the idea for commercial aircraft. If, by choosing the FC-31, Pakistan can get a 100% price offset through commercial aircraft, helicopters, etc, then it could be a good choice.
Yes, it won't drive the developmental track directly, but if China agrees to $10 b in aviation purchases from Pakistan over 15-20 years, we can channel that offset into investment, encouraging the private sector, etc.
Those steps will help our economy, and we'll actually end up with companies that can drive valuable R&D.
@JamD @Syed1. @The Accountant @airomerix