Price Water House Report the worlds most powerful Economys by 2050

[HostileInsurgent]

This is what one should see right now regarding current economic scenario.

 

[Viva_Viet]

It is not about somebody can or can't make a forecast, but about how far the PWC forecast is realiable enough.

And who want to believe your forecast? eventhough I have reveal my own opinion which not in line with PWC (and you failed to see it), but at least PWC most probably quite accurate regarding Vietnam

PWC forecast is realiable enough ??Only realiable enough for countries which still cant make their own 3G phones

I can "forecast" that after CN make 6G, then VN will still be the Second country can make 6G equipment, too. 99% of this "forecast" is correct, bcs most of u guys still cant even make 3G stuff

 

[Indos]

PWHC data is an old one, it is better projection and only up to 2035. Bringing 2050 projection is nonsense since many can change between 30 years of period.

This one is based on nominal GDP and projected in December 2020. Every year the projection will be adjusted based on latest data.

https://cebr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WELT-2021-final-23.12.pdf

Vietnam to become world’s 19th largest economy by 2035: CEBR

m.hanoitimes.vn

 

[antonius123]

Do not underestimate Vietnam, 10 countries in Southeast Asia, the strongest economy and technology in 2050 is definitely Indonesia and Vietnam, the other eight countries have no hope to exceed these two.
I am predicting based on population, territory, resources, and culture. The other 8 countries have obvious disadvantages compared to Indonesia and Vietnam. Of course I exclude Singapore and Brunei, two pocket countries.

France predicted by PWC to be no 10th in 2050.
Now look at current est GDP: France GDP is almost 10x Vietnam.

That means if France GDP become 1.5x of her current one within 30 years, Vietnam GDP need to become 15x of current in order for Vietnam to replace France as last country in top 10 largest GDP in 2050; and it is very difficult. Vietnam need to grow 10% higher than growth of France or world average economic growth. So if France economic growth average is 2%, Vietnam need to grow 12% per year consistently during 30 year.

This is not to mention: middle income trap barrier that Vietnam must overcome as the GDP/capita grow into the criteria of middle income countries, that will slowdown economic growth, including the currency rate decrease in order to maintain competitiveness that will certainly decrease GDP when it is done.

 

[TOTUU]

France predicted by PWC to be no 10th in 2050.
Now look at current est GDP: France GDP is almost 10x Vietnam.
View attachment 736382
View attachment 736383

That means if France GDP become 1.5x of her current one within 30 years, Vietnam GDP need to become 15x of current in order for Vietnam to replace France as last country in top 10 largest GDP in 2050; and it is very difficult. Vietnam need to grow 10% higher than growth of France or world average economic growth. So if France economic growth average is 2%, Vietnam need to grow 12% per year consistently during 30 year.

This is not to mention: middle income trap barrier that Vietnam must overcome as the GDP/capita grow into the criteria of middle income countries, that will slowdown economic growth, including the currency rate decrease in order to maintain competitiveness that will certainly decrease GDP when it is done.

The population gap between Vietnam and France is not large, so it is normal for Vietnam to overtake France in 30 years, one step at a time.
My personal analysis is that Vietnam has a bright future, it is close to China and is also the same Confucian cultural circle, which is a great advantage for the exchange of scientific, technological and economic achievements between China and Vietnam.
The middle-income trap depends on the ability to break through in science and technology, and it is possible to cross this middle-income trap if you can have an advantageous technology industry.

 

[Viva_Viet]

PWHC data is an old one, it is better projection and only up to 2035. Bringing 2050 projection is nonsense since many can change between 30 years of period.

This one is based on nominal GDP and projected in December 2020. Every year the projection will be adjusted based on latest data.

View attachment 736384

https://cebr.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/WELT-2021-final-23.12.pdf

Vietnam to become world’s 19th largest economy by 2035: CEBR

m.hanoitimes.vn

True, many can change in the future. Maybe another Pademic happen after Covid, many countries will have negative growth again. Even 1% growth is also good enough during Pademics.

 

[TOTUU]

This is what one should see right now regarding current economic scenario.

If a country wants to develop its economy ， does what China does 。It would be wise to change the Chinese policy to a different name according to your own country's situation.. and many countries around the world are now doing it.
for example , The developed United States and Europe, developing countries Malaysia, Vietnam are doing this now .

Similarly China also learn and replicate the policies of other countries.

Never follow what the experts at the IMF and the World Bank say. The purpose of those in control of these two organizations is not to develop the world economy; their purpose is to maintain their own ruling order through these two organizations.

 

[Viva_Viet]

This is not to mention: middle income trap barrier that Vietnam must overcome as the GDP/capita grow into the criteria of middle income countries, that will slowdown economic growth, including the currency rate decrease in order to maintain competitiveness that will certainly decrease GDP when it is done.

middle income trap trully is a big problem, even CN is also stuck in the trap due to trade war.

But at least VN can put our hope on selling 5G/6G , selling Vinfast electric cars and try to avoid trade war, too.

 

[antonius123]

middle income trap trully is a big problem, even CN is also stuck in the trap due to trade war.

But at least VN can put our hope on selling 5G/6G , selling Vinfast electric cars and try to avoid trade war, too.

Talking rubbish again.

Country that will stuck in middle income trap are those who already has reach middle income (expensive labour), but still depend on labour intense industry. China doesnt depend on labour intense industry anymore.

Vietnam need to invest into education and research in order for you to move to high tech intense industry.

 

[HostileInsurgent]

middle income trap trully is a big problem, even CN is also stuck in the trap due to trade war.

But at least VN can put our hope on selling 5G/6G , selling Vinfast electric cars and try to avoid trade war, too.

Even Indian telecom giants have 5G tech and are trying to implement it, Jio was the first announce it (Jio is a subsidiary of Reliance Industries and is owned by India’s Richest man Mr. Mukesh Ambani, hence they spent a lot of money on R&D).

 

[antonius123]

The population gap between Vietnam and France is not large, so it is normal for Vietnam to overtake France in 30 years, one step at a time.

The right indicator is "GDP gap", not population gap. GDP gap already calculate both population gap and income/capita gap, rather than population gap alone.
As shown above, the "GDP gap" between that of France vs Vietnam is too large, up to 10x.

My personal analysis is that Vietnam has a bright future, it is close to China and is also the same Confucian cultural circle, which is a great advantage for the exchange of scientific, technological and economic achievements between China and Vietnam.
The middle-income trap depends on the ability to break through in science and technology, and it is possible to cross this middle-income trap if you can have an advantageous technology industry.

Even if Vietnam can pass middle income trap, it is still very difficult to be in the top 10 economic power in 2050.

It is extremely difficult to maintain economic growth above 12% for even only 10 years, leave alone 30 years.

Vietnam has prospect to be developed country in 2050, but getting into top 10 largest economy is different thing.

 

[Viva_Viet]

Even Indian telecom giants have 5G tech and are trying to implement it, Jio was the first announce it (Jio is a subsidiary of Reliance Industries and is owned by India’s Richest man Mr. Mukesh Ambani, hence they spent a lot of money on R&D).

Good news, but Jio need to make 5G equipments itself instead of buying from CN.

---'xxxx
. It is likely that Jio will buy white label solutions from someone like Fujitsu in Japan or Comba Telecom in China. There are a lot of different players who supply hardware for O-RAN.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.busi...ing-its-5g-story-brick-by-brick/1/420013.html

Talking rubbish again.

Country that will stuck in middle income trap are those who already has reach middle income (expensive labour), but still depend on labour intense industry. China doesnt depend on labour intense industry anymore.

Vietnam need to invest into education and research in order for you to move to high tech intense industry.

China doesnt depend on labour intense industry anymore ??? That's why CN still have 600 million Cnese earning less than 140 usd per month and thousands to millions textile workers only earn abt 62 usd per week


---------
Workers at a factory in China used by the company that makes clothing for Ivanka Trump’s fashion line and other brands worked nearly 60 hours a week to earn wages of little more than $62 a week, according to a factory audit released Monday.

China's textile, garment exports expand in November

Doesn't change the fact that most of your work is doing sweatshop labor for foreign brands. They got very low salary, dont know why CN GDP per capital is 10,000 $ now. Its a super fake data :lol: --------- Workers at a factory in China used by the company that makes clothing for Ivanka Trump’s...

defence.pk

Stop talking rubbish, focus on learning how to make 3G phones now, dude.

 

[HostileInsurgent]

Good news, but Jio need to make 5G equipments itself instead of buying from CN.

---'xxxx
. It is likely that Jio will buy white label solutions from someone like Fujitsu in Japan or Comba Telecom in China. There are a lot of different players who supply hardware for O-RAN.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.busi...ing-its-5g-story-brick-by-brick/1/420013.html

China doesnt depend on labour intense industry anymore ??? That's why CN still have 600 million Cnese earning less than 140 usd per month and thousands to millions textile workers only earn abt 62 usd per week


---------
Workers at a factory in China used by the company that makes clothing for Ivanka Trump’s fashion line and other brands worked nearly 60 hours a week to earn wages of little more than $62 a week, according to a factory audit released Monday.

China's textile, garment exports expand in November

Doesn't change the fact that most of your work is doing sweatshop labor for foreign brands. They got very low salary, dont know why CN GDP per capital is 10,000 $ now. Its a super fake data :lol: --------- Workers at a factory in China used by the company that makes clothing for Ivanka Trump’s...

defence.pk

Stop talking rubbish, focus on learning how to make 3G phones now, dude.

Nah, reliance said it will be 100% indigenous 5G technology like they had in 4G. Jio is currently world’s largest 4G network and plans to become the largest or among the largest 5G network.

Our Airtel has also demonstrated 5G tech.

 

[VCheng]

Pakistanis : oh it doesn’t matter , fake reports, our grey economy will do, mossad -Cia - Raw conspiracy - Allah will provide!

5th largest population and it doesn’t even figure in the top 25.. failed nation.

Correction: Pakistan is not a failed nation, but it is definitely a failed economy. The sad part is that the economic failure is by design, to maintain a certain exploitative elite, in its dominant position.

 

[SQ8]

Correction: Pakistan is not a failed nation, but it is definitely a failed economy. The sad part is that the economic failure is by design, to maintain a certain exploitative elite, in its dominant position.

It may be both - it can be both.
I have not used the term failed state -but failed nation.