Preventing the Flow of High-End Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment to China

[F-22Raptor]

You know full well China does exactly what it says. That's why you're so fearful.

Put the article I posted through machine translation and read it slowly so the full implication eventually reaches you. I know you'll put two and two together eventually, champ!

ASML holds about 90% of the EUV market, and ASMLs machines have a large amount of US sourced technology. China is nowhere close to competing with ASML. Not to mention the other monumental challenges the Chinese face.

 

[JustAnotherPerson]

ASML holds about 90% of the EUV market, and ASMLs machines have a large amount of US sourced technology. China is nowhere close to competing with ASML. Not to mention the other monumental challenges the Chinese face.

Market Share doesn't matter once market conditions have changed, the only thing that market share means is how much they are going to lose once alternatives have appeared in the market.

 

[F-22Raptor]

No amount of Chinese PDF circle jerk or "China stronk!" will change the fact that the US has all the leverage in the semiconductor industry. It will take decades and a revolution in microelectronics for the Chinese to overcome that.

 

[JustAnotherPerson]

Once again, talk is cheap. When SMIC begins producing "7nm" chips(which is actually comparable to TSMCs 10nm process) at scale let me know.

Practically all EUV machines contain a high percentage of US sourced technology. And the miniscule amount of companies that produce them have a high percentage of US engineers.

I think the only mayor component source by the US in ASML lithography machines are the light sources who are supplied by cymer.

 

[JustAnotherPerson]

No amount of Chinese PDF circle jerk or "China stronk!" will change the fact that the US has all the leverage in the semiconductor industry. It will take decades and a revolution in microelectronics for the Chinese to overcome that.

Yes U.S.A have the leverage, sadly the neocons are willing to sacrifice that leverage for just ONE COMPANY.
The national security neocons are fooling themselves and they are setting themselves for a really nasty surprise.

 

[F-22Raptor]

I think the only mayor component source by the US in ASML lithography machines are the light sources who are supplied by cymer.

50% of EUV patents are sourced from US government labs and universities. ASML licenses those patents.

The other 50% is private industry, and Intel owns a good amount of those.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

China is nowhere close to competing with ASML. Not to mention the other monumental challenges the Chinese face.

You still haven't read the article. *Sigh*, it seems I'll have to take time out of my day and educate you once again. Not that you'll learn anything, so this is more for the benefit of other readers.

It will take decades

If you bothered to read the article, you'd know that China has put in decades - it's been researching extreme ultraviolet lithography for three decades. The tech demonstrator mentioned in the article is the culmination of that work.

The great (for me) part is that all of the machine's components: the light source, the lenses and mirrors, and the workpiece are all indigenously sourced. 100% Chinese, 100% sanctions proof, 100% available for use by all those countries like Russia and Iran that have been bullied by the US and excluded from access to modern technology. They'll be able to use SMEE's machines, and China's complete semiconductor toolchain from design to manufacture, to create whole new generations of military electronics. Isn't that swell?

China is nowhere close to competing with ASML.

It's so adorable that you think China's planning to do anything as pedestrian as "competing" with ASML - China is going to drive ASML and TSMC out of business. It's going to make any kind of commercial semiconductor activity outside its borders untenable. You think Trump is some mafia gangster because he shook down TikTok? He's nothing more than a two-bit thug. China's going to show you what real mafiosi thuggery is all about.

China is already the world's assembly point for all semiconductors. Everything finds its way into China at some point or other. Once China has attained complete semiconductor independence for itself, it will turn around and present every single electronics manufacturer around the world with an offer they can't refuse: either shift all of their semiconductor sourcing to SMIC and other Chinese fabs, or forfeit the gargantuan Chinese market entirely and exit China. And don't think "exit China" means anything for them other than dying outside in the cold.

 

[JustAnotherPerson]

Practically all EUV machines contain a high percentage of US sourced technology. And the miniscule amount of companies that produce them have a high percentage of US engineers.

Dutch cancel ASML chip-equipment sale to China
Editor: Lisa Lucke
The White House has reportedly succeeded in its efforts to stop the sale of Veldhoven-based ASML’s advanced microprocessor technology to China.
Reuters reported this week the Trump administration launched a multi-pronged effort that began in late 2018, when Dutch authorities granted a licensing agreement for ASML to sell a chip-making machine to a Chinese customer. The effort included Secretary of State Mike Pompeo lobbying the Dutch government in at least four meetings, and the sharing of an intelligence report with Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte in July, during his visit to Washington. At issue is an ASML machine that is known to make ultra-fast microprocessors, memory chips and other advanced components using a high-tech lithography process. Current U.S. regulations state that the U.S. can require a license for many high-tech products shipped to China from other countries if products are comprised of 25% or more of U.S.-made components. However, a U.S. Dept. of Commerce audit of the machine stated that it did not meet that threshold, which meant the Trump administration could not block the sale outright. Instead, it has relied on mounting a pressure campaign aimed at convincing the Netherland government that it was a bad idea for the technology to end up in China, and therefore, they must reconsider the license. During the July visit, National Security Advisor Charles Kupperman shared the intelligence report with Rutte that outlined potential repercussions of China getting their hands on the advanced microprocessor technology, according to Reuters’ U.S. government sources. A short time after the visit concluded, the Dutch government elected not to renew ASML’s export license, effectively stopping the sale of the USD 150 million machine. Reuters said in its story that the U.S. Government, Rutte’s office, and Kupperman’s office have all declined to comment on the situation. ASML said only that it is still waiting on approval on a new license request. The Nikkei Asian Review, which was the first to report the delayed shipment back in November of 2019, speculated that the China customer was Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC). SMIC did not respond to Reuters request for comment on the story.

My bet is that is even worse with the Japanese lithography manufacturers because they tend to do everything themselves.

 

[F-22Raptor]

You still haven't read the article. *Sigh*, it seems I'll have to take time out of my day and educate you once again. Not that you'll learn anything, so this is more for the benefit of other readers.

If you bothered to read the article, you'd know that China has put in decades - it's been researching extreme ultraviolet lithography for three decades. The tech demonstrator mentioned in the article is the culmination of that work.

The great (for me) part is that all of the machine's components: the light source, the lenses and mirrors, and the workpiece are all indigenously sourced. 100% Chinese, 100% sanctions proof, 100% available for use by all those countries like Russia and Iran that have been bullied by the US and excluded from access to modern technology. They'll be able to use SMEE's machines, and China's complete semiconductor toolchain from design to manufacture, to create whole new generations of military electronics. Isn't that swell?


It's so adorable that you think China's planning to do anything as pedestrian as "competing" with ASML - China is going to drive ASML and TSMC out of business. It's going to make any kind of commercial semiconductor activity outside its borders untenable. You think Trump is some mafia gangster because he shook down TikTok? He's nothing more than a two-bit thug. China's going to show you what real mafiosi thuggery is all about.

China is already the world's assembly point for all semiconductors. Everything finds its way into China at some point or other. Once China has attained complete semiconductor independence for itself, it will turn around and present every single electronics manufacturer around the world with an offer they can't refuse: either shift all of their semiconductor sourcing to SMIC and other Chinese fabs, or forfeit the gargantuan Chinese market entirely and exit China. And don't think "exit China" means anything for them other than dying outside in the cold.

What a crock of sh*t! China, who has spent decades and tens of billions of dollars in the semiconductor industry and are still far behind, are supposed to surpass TSMC and ASML? Talk about utter delusion. The reality is China is behind by YEARS. And no amount of blathering from that sewer will change that.

 

[JustAnotherPerson]

50% of EUV patents are sourced from US government labs and universities. ASML licenses those patents.

The other 50% is private industry, and Intel owns a good amount of those.

And you will find a lot of patents in Chinese, Japanese and Europeans universities and companies https://euvlitho.com/2015/P21.pdf those are just abstract ideas, for god sake man, Huawei still pays qualcomm for patent license.
What it matter from a export control standpoint is tangible parts, software, components and others. things that you can sell.
I am saying you U.S. has lost the ability of making high end lithography machines.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

ASML holds about 90% of the EUV market, and ASMLs machines have a large amount of US sourced technology. China is nowhere close to competing with ASML. Not to mention the other monumental challenges the Chinese face.

1. Most lithography systems in use today are Ar-F, not EUV. Ar-F can still pattern 7 nm features.

2. ASML's largest US supplier is Cymer for the light source. ASML exports do not meet the 25% American product standard held by the US Department of Commerce. Note that "American product" is applied very broadly, and even that broad standard failed by the US's own "laws".

3. There are also zero US based manufacturers with <10 nm fabrication capabilities. Intel failed and is now outsourcing to TSMC. GloFo also failed and sold their EUV equipment.

 

[JustAnotherPerson]

What a crock of sh*t! China, who has spent decades and tens of billions of dollars in the semiconductor industry and are still far behind, are supposed to surpass TSMC and ASML? Talk about utter delusion. The reality is China is behind by YEARS. And no amount of blathering from that sewer will change that.

yes i explain why in another post, the irony is that the neocons are now helping the Chinese to archive their goals, now every single cent that they throw in their semiconductor industry will have an effect because the U.S. changed the market conditions.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

You still haven't read the article. *Sigh*, it seems I'll have to take time out of my day and educate you once again. Not that you'll learn anything, so this is more for the benefit of other readers.

If you bothered to read the article, you'd know that China has put in decades - it's been researching extreme ultraviolet lithography for three decades. The tech demonstrator mentioned in the article is the culmination of that work.

The great (for me) part is that all of the machine's components: the light source, the lenses and mirrors, and the workpiece are all indigenously sourced. 100% Chinese, 100% sanctions proof, 100% available for use by all those countries like Russia and Iran that have been bullied by the US and excluded from access to modern technology. They'll be able to use SMEE's machines, and China's complete semiconductor toolchain from design to manufacture, to create whole new generations of military electronics. Isn't that swell?


It's so adorable that you think China's planning to do anything as pedestrian as "competing" with ASML - China is going to drive ASML and TSMC out of business. It's going to make any kind of commercial semiconductor activity outside its borders untenable. You think Trump is some mafia gangster because he shook down TikTok? He's nothing more than a two-bit thug. China's going to show you what real mafiosi thuggery is all about.

China is already the world's assembly point for all semiconductors. Everything finds its way into China at some point or other. Once China has attained complete semiconductor independence for itself, it will turn around and present every single electronics manufacturer around the world with an offer they can't refuse: either shift all of their semiconductor sourcing to SMIC and other Chinese fabs, or forfeit the gargantuan Chinese market entirely and exit China. And don't think "exit China" means anything for them other than dying outside in the cold.

this is truly sad in a way.

Americans used to brag about themselves being the undisputed leader and #1 in the world.

Now they're bragging about a Taiwanese and Dutch company being #1 in the world.

 

[JustAnotherPerson]

this is truly sad in a way.

Americans used to brag about themselves being the undisputed leader and #1 in the world.

Now they're bragging about a Taiwanese and Dutch company being #1 in the world.

Is really sad, like my friend Musk says " entitled and complacent". 911, Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Financial crisis, Covid. all self-inflicted wounds.
They are not seeing the possibility that they could lose their semiconductor industry for just ONE COMPANY.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

China, who has spent decades and tens of billions of dollars in the semiconductor industry and are still far behind, are supposed to surpass TSMC and ASML?

China isn't going to surpass TSMC and ASML, it's going to do to them what Trump is trying to do to TikTok and Huawei. Only unlike the orange bozo, it'll succeed. It's not going to fight fair, it'll smash them over the head with a bottle.

Talk about utter delusion.

Delusion is thinking the US has any way of winning this. It's already over; it was over the moment Nixon landed in China.

The reality is China is behind by YEARS. And no amount of blathering from that sewer will change that.

The only sewer is America - a sewer of pestilence and disease, now physical as well as cultural and spiritual. So what if China is behind by years? It has all the time in the world. It's your time that's running out.