Pre-war analyze inference

[jhungary]

You know how long it took the US to get ready for operation Desert Storm and Operation Iraqi Freedom? Hint, it's not a week.

You have no idea how US mobilise their troop, do you?

Within the US Military, there are 4 stage of mobilisation.

Stage 1. Forward Mobilisation

Mobilise of all active force in forward deployed position (Stationed overseas). Unit are require to mobilise between 24 to 48 hours from receiving the mobilisation notice and be deployed to front line.

Unit involved in this mobilisation order usually consist of forward deployed active troop, special force and rapid deployment force, forward deployed air, sea and ground asset.

Stage 2. Active Mobilisation

Mobilisation of all active force station in US, all active personnel are called in service without 7 days to be forward deployable.

Force included regular air, sea, ground asset within US.

Stage 3. Reserve/National Guard Mobilisation

Mobilisation of all National Guard unit and Reserve unit and call up to be deployable. Usually within 30 days. Active individual reserve usually quicker and inactive reserve usually take the full 30 days.

Force included all reserves force and national guard.

Stage 4. General Mobilisation

A draft or selection service in place and conscript will undergone training to be forward deployable within 180 days.

Stages can be set one after each other or can be concurrent. And all the stages are following the already established infrastructure.

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To answer your question. No, both war require less than 1 week to mobilise in fact, it take me 5 days from my barrack in Kuwait to be in the front line in Iraq. I was on a 24 hours notice.

In GW1, the ground force were already deployed to the front line ready to jump off the border in January, however the ground force did not "jump off" until 24 February, that does not mean the ground force is "not ready" like you said, it was file according to battleplan.

GW2 saw 5 days lighting strike onto Baghdad from the onset of Iraqi Freedom on the 20 March. So you tell me how long it take for US to get ready for war in both case?

 

[xunzi]

I have a pretty good feeling it will end up as a stalemate like in the Korean War if no nuke is involved. Neither the US nor us can stop each other from continuing fighting. There will be a massive global downturn and both of us will be heavily damage. Who got the bad end of the stick remain to be seen, although I have pretty good feeling the US will suffer less because they are fighting away from home. That is because we are one and two in industrial prowess so impossible to make the others surrender without resolving to nuke.

 

[Aepsilons]

I have a pretty good feeling it will end up as a stalemate like in the Korean War if no nuke is involved. Neither the US nor us can stop each other from continuing fighting. There will be a massive global downturn and both of us will be heavily damage. Who got the bad end of the stick remain to be seen, although I have pretty good feeling the US will suffer less because they are fighting away from home. That is because we are one and two in industrial prowess so impossible to make the others surrender without resolving to nuke.

An accurate analysis, my Zhong Guo friend.

 

[sword1947]

once it starts, it will end with nuke fight. no one can win this game.