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Pound falls to 37-year low against dollar as mini-budget puts markets in spin

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Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax-cutting mini-budget has sent financial markets into a tailspin, with UK government borrowing costs soaring and the pound slumping to a 37-year low against the dollar.

Issuing a punishing verdict on the chancellor’s “dash for growth”, traders in the City of London sent sterling tumbling on Friday amid a broad-based sell-off in response to the massive rise in public borrowing required to finance his plans.


The pound fell by almost 2% after Kwarteng announced £45bn of tax cuts directed at higher earners, trading close to a symbolic $1.10 against the US dollar for the first time since 1985.


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The FTSE 100 fell more than 2% to trade below 7,000 for the first time since early March, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while the cost of borrowing for the UK government on international markets rose by the most in a single day for more than a decade.

Two-year UK government bond yields – which are inversely related to the value of bonds and rise as they fall – jumped by as much as 0.4 percentage points to come close to 4%, reaching the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.

Borrowing costs on 10-year bonds rose by more than 0.2 percentage points to trade close to 3.8%, continuing a dramatic climb under way since Liz Truss took over as prime minister earlier this month. At the start of September, yields on benchmark UK sovereign debt have risen by almost one percentage point, significantly more than for comparable advanced economies.

It comes after the Treasury said it would finance the chancellor’s tax cuts and the energy price guarantee for consumers and businesses with £72.4bn in additional UK government debt sales than planned for the current financial year.

Instead of the £161.7bn planned by the Debt Management Office in April, the Treasury said it would now sell £234.1bn of government bonds to international investors in 2022-23.

The change will mean investors are being approached to buy significantly more government debt than previously expected, and comes in addition to the Bank of England preparing to sell £80bn of gilts held on its balance sheet thanks to its quantitative easing programme.
The moves come as the Bank responds to soaring inflation by raising interest rates, despite warning that Britain’s economy is already in recession.

Antoine Bouvet, a senior rates strategist, and Chris Turner, the global head of markets at the Dutch bank ING, said the conditions amounted to a “perfect storm” for the UK as global markets shun sterling and gilts.

“Price action in UK gilts is going from bad to worse. A daunting list of challenges has arisen for sterling-denominated bond investors, and the Treasury’s mini-budget has done little to shore up confidence.”


textbook example of death spiral economic policies playing out in Britian.
 
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After 50 years of easy money, fake economies are finally feeling some real pain from fed tightening.
 
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We have a moron for PM and a cretin for Chancellor of the Exchequer .
He is cutting taxes for the very rich by borrowing money when we are in the middle of a very expensive exercise in subsidizing gas and electricity bills by borrowing £70 billion.

To borrow money to cut taxes of the very rich on top of the energy emergency is craven stupidity.

The markets will punish such profligate borrowing by selling the £ and the MPC will now definitely have to rise base rates to prevent a run on the £

Conservatives, a party of sound money in the past, has done a complete somersault.
 
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Good time to buy uk property if you are in us or Canada
 
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Good time to buy uk property if you are in us or Canada
UK is doom. The price may dropped further. UK is no more a magnet to attactt financial and talent. Just like the death of Queen Elizabeth II signal the further decline of UK. The politician in UK are nothing but fool who can do nothing to help the financial and inflation trouble.

When asked about what shall be done to help boast economy and fight inflation. All they can do is talk about anti China policy and how they are going to stick further with US foreign policy.
 
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We have a moron for PM and a cretin for Chancellor of the Exchequer .
He is cutting taxes for the very rich by borrowing money when we are in the middle of a very expensive exercise in subsidizing gas and electricity bills by borrowing £70 billion.

To borrow money to cut taxes of the very rich on top of the energy emergency is craven stupidity.

The markets will punish such profligate borrowing by selling the £ and the MPC will now definitely have to rise base rates to prevent a run on the £

Conservatives, a party of sound money in the past, has done a complete somersault.
Honestly, I've never seen economic policy this bad. Originally, Conservatives are the party of fiscal responsibility but now it looks like conservatives are the borrow and spend party.
 
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UK is doom. The price may dropped further. UK is no more a magnet to attactt financial and talent. Just like the death of Queen Elizabeth II signal the further decline of UK. The politician in UK are nothing but fool who can do nothing to help the financial and inflation trouble.

When asked about what shall be done to help boast economy and fight inflation. All they can do is talk about anti China policy and how they are going to stick further with US foreign policy.
It’s not that simple. Uk still has lot to offer and if you have US dollar lying around you can get great deal in euro and in uk. After few years you will get the benefits.

I bought a house in Miami dirt cheap 2012 back then 1 usd was .94 cad. Now 1 usd is 1.36 cad. Meaning even if you just consider fx noise you making 40 percent gain as a Canadian on top of house price went up lot in last 10 years.
 
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calling it now. Britain will need IMF bailout in the next 12 months.

UK is doom. The price may dropped further. UK is no more a magnet to attactt financial and talent. Just like the death of Queen Elizabeth II signal the further decline of UK. The politician in UK are nothing but fool who can do nothing to help the financial and inflation trouble.

When asked about what shall be done to help boast economy and fight inflation. All they can do is talk about anti China policy and how they are going to stick further with US foreign policy.
hey, it's great news for US. Every time an economy collapses like this, money will flee mostly to the US.
 
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calling it now. Britain will need IMF bailout in the next 12 months.


hey, it's great news for US. Every time an economy collapses like this, money will flee mostly to the US.
Australia has learn their lesson and less anti China. UK who just change a PM are still learning and repeat the same mistakes.
 
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It is populist policy (higher subsidy) while keep being as conservative (low tax). Basically 19 % corporate tax is not that low considering corporate tax has been around 22-20 % in many countries. Their private industry is struggling to compete so less corporate tax is understandable.

This kind of policy should be combined with tightening in other spending to compensate higher energy subsidy and I would say it will be challenging as I think usually military spending that usually will be cut in this kind of policy but it will be quite complex under present circumstances where European countries have made commitment to raise their defense spending due to Russian threat
 
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It is populist policy (higher subsidy) while keep being as conservative (low tax). Basically 19 % corporate tax is not that low considering corporate tax has been around 22-20 % in many countries. Their private industry is struggling to compete so less corporate tax is understandable.

This kind of policy should be combined with tightening in other spending to compensate higher energy subsidy and I would say it will be challenging as I think usually military spending that usually will be cut in this kind of policy but it will be quite complex under present circumstances where European countries have made commitment to raise their defense spending due to Russian threat

The elephant in the room is welfare and social spending, not defence spending. They can eliminate their defence spending totally and they still won't be able to balance their budget.

It comes after the Treasury said it would finance the chancellor’s tax cuts and the energy price guarantee for consumers and businesses with £72.4bn in additional UK government debt sales than planned for the current financial year.

Instead of the £161.7bn planned by the Debt Management Office in April, the Treasury said it would now sell £234.1bn of government bonds to international investors in 2022-23.
1664012805883.png


A low tax Singapore-on-Thames economic model is not suitable for the UK, unless they are willing to cut down their welfare and social spending by half to Singapore levels. But whichever government do that will get voted out in no time.

1664013881380.png



Instead of cutting taxes, they should increase their taxes if they want to remain as a welfare state. Otherwise it's simply not sustainable. They are almost spending as much on debt interest as defence as per the graph above. With more debt and rising interest rates, the interest on debt will likely surpass defence spending in the coming years.
 
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We have a moron for PM and a cretin for Chancellor of the Exchequer .
He is cutting taxes for the very rich by borrowing money when we are in the middle of a very expensive exercise in subsidizing gas and electricity bills by borrowing £70 billion.

To borrow money to cut taxes of the very rich on top of the energy emergency is craven stupidity.

The markets will punish such profligate borrowing by selling the £ and the MPC will now definitely have to rise base rates to prevent a run on the £

Conservatives, a party of sound money in the past, has done a complete somersault.
Sounds like a Rajapaksa tax move 🤔
 
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Stamp duty saved
£16,000 -£20,000 off my next house .
Awaiting to purchase few more when homeowners fall behind on there mortgages .
4% forecast interest next year currently at 2.2% .
Thank you kwasi for once for something from a life long Labour Party voter much better than the previous dog turd chancellor.

Oh yeah **** tories the party of the racists .
 
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The elephant in the room is welfare and social spending, not defence spending. They can eliminate their defence spending totally and they still won't be able to balance their budget.


View attachment 882234

A low tax Singapore-on-Thames economic model is not suitable for the UK, unless they are willing to cut down their welfare and social spending by half to Singapore levels. But whichever government do that will get voted out in no time.

View attachment 882244


Instead of cutting taxes, they should increase their taxes if they want to remain as a welfare state. Otherwise it's simply not sustainable. They are almost spending as much on debt interest as defence as per the graph above. With more debt and rising interest rates, the interest on debt will likely surpass defence spending in the coming years.
Inflation is the more pressing issue right now, not the budget. In the middle of double digit inflation, the UK decides borrow massively to boost demand though tax cuts.
Interest rates will rise and UK will likely have to sell dollars to defend the pound. This will put UK even further into debt.
 
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Honestly, I've never seen economic policy this bad. Originally, Conservatives are the party of fiscal responsibility but now it looks like conservatives are the borrow and spend party.
Not just borrow and spend but on a scale unseen previously.
These are eye watering sums being borrowed having abandoned a strict policy followed by all previous government's to follow a balanced budget over the medium to long term.
Barber tried this in 1972 . It wrecked the economy and there was a complete collapse which brought Labour in to try to fix it.
Its still not fixed and this will lead to another run on the pound and a train wreck.
Sell £ buy $ and have your savings in $ saving accounts.
Buy investment grade assets and do not hold any savings in £GB
 
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