fatman17
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Post Military Operations Scenario.
Part I - Looking Ahead Military Options and Support for the Local Administration;
The problem with such analyses is that the military operations have not ended as such;
The tone of its intensity may have receded in the past few days, especially in the Malakand / Swat Valley. Having said that mopping-up operations continue in Upper & Lower Dir, Buner and Swat with the militants having fled the area towards Bajaur, North and South Waziristan.
In the words of the CoAS, Pakistan Army, General Ashfaque Pervez Kiyani, the tide in Swat has decisively turned in favour of the civilian government to empower it to establish its writ over the area. That would largely depend on how the civilian leadership and the local administration tackle the on-going IDPs crisis.
The military operations conducted by the Pakistan Army have earned rare critical acclaim from the western press as well as their strongest supporters in the US administration, the Pentagon. At a recent press conference at the National Press Club in Washington, General Conway, Commander of the USMC is quoted as saying that I believe they achieved operational surprise - which is really difficult in this day and age, with constant media coverage and the speed of the internet". He further adds They have achieved operational surprise because they did what they are doing now from a standing start" he said.
"There was no threat, there was no build-up of military capability, there were no warning shots provided. With the forces they have in the field, they simply started going at the Taliban and the Al-Qaeda in Swat", General Conway said. Its all very wholesome. we wish them continued success and salute them for what I think, again, has been a masterful military maneuver at this point, based on what we have seen", Conway said.
The military operations have now established a momentum of their own, the Army emboldened by their recent successes and overt support shown by the villagers of the conflict areas in defeating the militants, have started a major operation in Bannu from where the militants are conducting suicide attacks in the city of Peshawar -. The Pakistan Air Force has been called-in again to target militant hideouts located in N & S Waziristan. In a rare photo-op occasion, both the CoAS and CAS were seen together visiting Swat a few days back, showing clearly that the co-ordination between the Army & Air Force during the on-going operations is at a very high level. This auger well for the future, especially when one re-visits the Kargil conflict.
The Army has to widen its military operations sooner than later by taking the battle to Baitullah Mahsud (BM) and his TTP who are entrenched in N & S Waziristan. Their sanctuaries and hideouts have to be destroyed in order to wrest the area back from BMs control. If the Army, which has fought with great courage and determination, is able to take the upper hand from the TTP, forcing them to flee across the border (Durand line), then, it would be interesting to note how the US/ISAF/NATO forces based in Afghanistan react to this situation. Will they help join in this battle to destroy the Pakistani Taliban or will they opt to remain as interested onlookers. My guess is that they will have no choice but to join in the fray. After all isnt this what we are fighting for?
The Army will need to continue its military campaign because it has become an existential threat not only for the army but the people and the country. In the words of Mr., Shaukat Qadir, a defense analyst, Let us be very clear about one thing. If successful military operations are going to continue in our tribal areas, which they must, the incidents of terrorist attacks will also increase incrementally. They are not going away. Incidents of this kind are something we are destined to live with for the foreseeable future in other words we cannot give in to their tactics of fear and terror!
The Armys presence in the tribal areas is now becoming very critical and vital.
Yesterday, the President of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan has approved the deployment of a Garrison HQ in Swat (most probably near the city of Mingora). At this stage, it will be a Brigade HQ, to be upgraded later to Divisional HQ level in the coming months and years. Further deployment of unit level at FOBs in places like Buner, Upper and Lower Dir, Bajaur, N & S Waziristan (once in army control) to provide rapid reaction support to the local administration if and when required.
The GoP and the Army should campaign for the release of funds from the Coalition Counter Insurgency Support Fund made available by the US administration and Congress which are in the control of the Centcom Chief, to set-up the Divisional HQ. The operational concept of the Divisional level force should be that of a Counter-Insurgency Rapid Reaction Force. The equipment requirements would commensurate COIN as its top priority (NVG, Wheeled APCs / Wheeled Artillery, Helicopters).
The location of the existing Corps HQ at Peshawar is adequate, but its formations are posted in cantonments which are at a relative distance from the conflict zone - they need to move closer as suggested earlier - its presence must be felt by the locals, giving them a sense of security which they desperately desire!
In 3 to 5 years down-the-line, because this is how long it will take, the tribal areas would require a Corps level force with its area of responsibility starting from Chitral in the northwest right down / along the western border till N & S Waziristan. Beyond Waziristan, the border area should be the responsibility of the Corps HQ at Quetta.
Part II Rehabilitation & Reconstruction of the IDPs in the Conflict areas respectively;
Next week!
Part I - Looking Ahead Military Options and Support for the Local Administration;
The problem with such analyses is that the military operations have not ended as such;
The tone of its intensity may have receded in the past few days, especially in the Malakand / Swat Valley. Having said that mopping-up operations continue in Upper & Lower Dir, Buner and Swat with the militants having fled the area towards Bajaur, North and South Waziristan.
In the words of the CoAS, Pakistan Army, General Ashfaque Pervez Kiyani, the tide in Swat has decisively turned in favour of the civilian government to empower it to establish its writ over the area. That would largely depend on how the civilian leadership and the local administration tackle the on-going IDPs crisis.
The military operations conducted by the Pakistan Army have earned rare critical acclaim from the western press as well as their strongest supporters in the US administration, the Pentagon. At a recent press conference at the National Press Club in Washington, General Conway, Commander of the USMC is quoted as saying that I believe they achieved operational surprise - which is really difficult in this day and age, with constant media coverage and the speed of the internet". He further adds They have achieved operational surprise because they did what they are doing now from a standing start" he said.
"There was no threat, there was no build-up of military capability, there were no warning shots provided. With the forces they have in the field, they simply started going at the Taliban and the Al-Qaeda in Swat", General Conway said. Its all very wholesome. we wish them continued success and salute them for what I think, again, has been a masterful military maneuver at this point, based on what we have seen", Conway said.
The military operations have now established a momentum of their own, the Army emboldened by their recent successes and overt support shown by the villagers of the conflict areas in defeating the militants, have started a major operation in Bannu from where the militants are conducting suicide attacks in the city of Peshawar -. The Pakistan Air Force has been called-in again to target militant hideouts located in N & S Waziristan. In a rare photo-op occasion, both the CoAS and CAS were seen together visiting Swat a few days back, showing clearly that the co-ordination between the Army & Air Force during the on-going operations is at a very high level. This auger well for the future, especially when one re-visits the Kargil conflict.
The Army has to widen its military operations sooner than later by taking the battle to Baitullah Mahsud (BM) and his TTP who are entrenched in N & S Waziristan. Their sanctuaries and hideouts have to be destroyed in order to wrest the area back from BMs control. If the Army, which has fought with great courage and determination, is able to take the upper hand from the TTP, forcing them to flee across the border (Durand line), then, it would be interesting to note how the US/ISAF/NATO forces based in Afghanistan react to this situation. Will they help join in this battle to destroy the Pakistani Taliban or will they opt to remain as interested onlookers. My guess is that they will have no choice but to join in the fray. After all isnt this what we are fighting for?
The Army will need to continue its military campaign because it has become an existential threat not only for the army but the people and the country. In the words of Mr., Shaukat Qadir, a defense analyst, Let us be very clear about one thing. If successful military operations are going to continue in our tribal areas, which they must, the incidents of terrorist attacks will also increase incrementally. They are not going away. Incidents of this kind are something we are destined to live with for the foreseeable future in other words we cannot give in to their tactics of fear and terror!
The Armys presence in the tribal areas is now becoming very critical and vital.
Yesterday, the President of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan has approved the deployment of a Garrison HQ in Swat (most probably near the city of Mingora). At this stage, it will be a Brigade HQ, to be upgraded later to Divisional HQ level in the coming months and years. Further deployment of unit level at FOBs in places like Buner, Upper and Lower Dir, Bajaur, N & S Waziristan (once in army control) to provide rapid reaction support to the local administration if and when required.
The GoP and the Army should campaign for the release of funds from the Coalition Counter Insurgency Support Fund made available by the US administration and Congress which are in the control of the Centcom Chief, to set-up the Divisional HQ. The operational concept of the Divisional level force should be that of a Counter-Insurgency Rapid Reaction Force. The equipment requirements would commensurate COIN as its top priority (NVG, Wheeled APCs / Wheeled Artillery, Helicopters).
The location of the existing Corps HQ at Peshawar is adequate, but its formations are posted in cantonments which are at a relative distance from the conflict zone - they need to move closer as suggested earlier - its presence must be felt by the locals, giving them a sense of security which they desperately desire!
In 3 to 5 years down-the-line, because this is how long it will take, the tribal areas would require a Corps level force with its area of responsibility starting from Chitral in the northwest right down / along the western border till N & S Waziristan. Beyond Waziristan, the border area should be the responsibility of the Corps HQ at Quetta.
Part II Rehabilitation & Reconstruction of the IDPs in the Conflict areas respectively;
Next week!
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