Possibility of return of Taliban in Kabul

[Armstrong]

Butt Sahib, don't confuse Afghan Taliban with the lowlife TTP. Afghan Taliban will help us decimate TTP. Afghan Taliban are Pro-Pakistan groups like Haqqani Network and Quetta 'Shura. Afghan Taliban is Good Taliban....

It is TTP that is Bad Taliban. We will destroy TTP.

Lets hope so Mirza Sahib...lets hope so !

Kahin ye na hoo ke hum ghalat assessment ke hatooon hiii maraiii jainn & the Afghan Taliban, after the US leaves, turn their guns on Pakistan & say - Yeh kammeeneiii theii who sold us out !

 

[DESERT FIGHTER]

Waisee have we had instances of desertions in the PA in this war ?

Not really...

 

[SmashZ]

Butt Sahib, don't confuse Afghan Taliban with the lowlife TTP. Afghan Taliban will help us decimate TTP. Afghan Taliban are Pro-Pakistan groups like Haqqani Network and Quetta 'Shura. Afghan Taliban is Good Taliban....

It is TTP that is Bad Taliban. We will destroy TTP.

Taliban is Religion inspired warriors their final aim is shria in all over world TTP is their brother organization , After Afghanistan sure it will be Pakistan or Vice versa

 

[AUSTERLITZ]

Butt Sahib, don't confuse Afghan Taliban with the lowlife TTP. Afghan Taliban will help us decimate TTP. Afghan Taliban are Pro-Pakistan groups like Haqqani Network and Quetta 'Shura. Afghan Taliban is Good Taliban....

It is TTP that is Bad Taliban. We will destroy TTP.

Still playing the good,bad game?Some people never learn i guess.
As for afghan taliban caturing kabul won't happen.Us land forces may leave but airpower and drones will stay,and those are enough to smash any large scale troop concentrations necessary to take urban centres.USA knows if they let taliban recapture afganisthan then it will again become safe haven for global terrorists and launchpad for attacks on american interests worldwide.That would mean the whole 10 yr effort and lives would have been for nothing.An unacceptable situation for any us govt.Any taliban gains would be counteracted by massive us reinforcements and aerial bombing campaign.

 

[Rajaraja Chola]

Guys , lets have the objective analysis of possibility of Taliban to return to power in Kabul.(No wishes but only ground reality)

My take,

USA is negotiating with Taliban so this is ample proof that Taliban is going to get some power share with Afghan government. but what will be type of power share , be Taliban form part of central government or get control of some regions or get hizbollah model of Lebanon in which armed party co-exist with civilian parties ?

Advantage of ANA:

1. One thing is clear 2014 is not 1996.This time,Afghanistan has a better trained and better equipped Army i.e. ANA. Currently ANA has over 2 Lakh soldiers and most of them trained by NATO forces.

2. Most of Great and regional powers like USA,Russia,Iran and India wholeheartedly supports ANA.

3. China,India have won mining contracts in Afghanistan and last thing they want a civil war sort of thing in Afghanistan.

4. USA will have some bases left in Afghanistan to further train ANA and the bases would act as moral boost for ANA.

5.TTP, that is the new thing phenomenon in 2014 which was absent in 1990s.After USA withdrawal,TTP can setup it's bases in afghan side of Afghan-Pak border and let all hell loose in the Pakistan. ANA co-operation would be vital to keep check over TTP.

Advantage for the Talibans:

1. On the other hand , Taliban are formless and shapeless decentralized fighting force with high morale due to extreme religiosity.This form is very suitable for guerrilla fight and type of mountainous terrain in Afghan-Pak border would support such guerrilla war.

2. Pakistan do not even an independent Afghanistan leave aside any anti-Pak Afghans. Why? an independent Afghanistan do not recognize Durand line as international border.Even before 90s,Afghan ministers usually came FATA area and declare it as a part of Afghanistan.

3. Due to ideological match and geopolitical reasons, I think Saudi would favour Taliban which will act as check for Iranian influence in Afghanistan.

4. Currently,Border trade with Pakistan is vital for Afghan economy.

Conclusions:

1. Looking at examples of Libya and Syria,It is very very difficult to defeat a trained and disciplined army by guerrilla forces even with covert support with developed world.Until and unless support is active involvement (No fly zones) of foreign powers, Trained forces can not be defeated easily.

2. One may question the extent of discipline and morale in ANA,this has some valid points.But one may be look at other points , Pakistan can not provide active and open support to Talibans and powerful countries(USA and Russia) are backing ANA which is a rarity in modern world. So If ANA is no demon then it is no Lemon too!

3. Now there can two possibilities of violence in 2014 -one,this is more probable, some warlords of Taliban angry/unsatisfied with power share wage a war against ANA ,however this can be tackled with carrot and stick policy by ANA.

4. Second possibility,less probable in my eyes,Taliban wholeheartedly wage a total war against ANA. Now this will be serious concern for everyone.This war will go on atleast a Decade.In that decade,terrorist explosions will be in heard in Central asia,India or even Iran too.Terrorist activity would be much much severe in Pakistan (Remember TTP).Perhaps the biggest victim would be Afghan people.


Suggestions:
Afghan has a very rich and proud history in whole of South Asian region.They need to look at their past to realize who they were. In essence , Afghanistan needs nationalism which will be a boost the morale of ANA and it's people and get a worthy cause to fight the dreaded Talibans.


P.S. Please refrain from one liner reply,thank you

Well, It will be a complicated scenario post 2014, after USA withdrawal. I am sure, NATO would leave sizable number of troops in its backyard.
I do not think ANA is well trained for now. Yes, it is getting training from NATO, India, Russia etc But for training to convert into field , it will take a good number of years.
Taliban will always find a need to fight. It will have its say in enforcing strict shariah as a precondition first. Secondly for entering into mainstream, they will seek closure of women's schools, which the west , ruling coaliation find it unacceptable.
Even if the above 2 demands are met (which is unlikely), they will fight for full removal of NATO forces, ie removal of foreign bases from Afghan soil, which wont to acceptable.
The bottomline is Taliban will always find a reason to fight.
Due to its hardline religious ideology, its difficult to talk to it. Its again highly doubtable, they will give up drugs, as it is their main source of income (disagreement will start from there).
Next, when they are relatively free of engaging western forces, they might turn in Kashmir side, invoking the wrath of India.

The Taliban, if it enters politics, will be defeated badly by its own people, and defeated, it will find a way to stay violent.
They dont care about economy nor investments made by China or India.
To have a stable govt, there must be give or take. But will they give up some of their core demands, is the one to be interestingly seen.

 

[Yaduveer]

The return of Afghan Taliban is not a Possibility. IT IS A GUARANTEE.

Just wait till 2014 and watch ANA melt into Afghan Taliban Force. More than half of ANA is Taliban. Who do you think those ANA soldiers are who keep killing NATO Forces from the inside ?

Wake up and smell the COFFEE.

We Indians have less to worry, We don't share border with Afghanistan.

Pakistan would face the terrorist like never before.

Don't think that Pakistan would be very peaceful when Civil war being broken out in Afghanistan.Explosions and suicide bombing would be multiple times in Pakistan after 2014.I say harder time is yet to come to Pakistan.Though India,Iran and other would not remain aloof.

If you want it that way then let it be.

 

[Jaggu]

The Taliban will probably take over Afghanistan. It is not a question of if but when. Even though we don't share a border with Afghanistan, but will the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan have an impact on India? How will it effect the violence in Kashmir? will Taliban be sending Jihadis to Kashmir. We need to think ahead 5 to 10 years.

 

[FaujHistorian]

Waisee have we had instances of desertions in the PA in this war ?

In a million man strong group few desertions are always possible.

But you gotta know the culture of Pakistani army's recruiting grounds before asking this question.

As we all know Pak army selects Most of its soldiers and officers from very specific areas of Punjab and Frontier.

This looks bad on paper.

But in real life it is fantastic "professionally" speaking.

The military traditions are so strong in these areas, that you can't even dream of desertion.

If you run away, where are you going to go?

if you go back to your village, how on earth you are going to the street, or mosque, or even the graveyard where you will see your own family members who were veterans and martyrs.

This "martial" culture keeps 99% of soldiers and officers in a disciplined environments.


No that everything is rosy in this martial land.

Islamism have made inroads there.

-- And thus a tiny tiny percentage does fall victim to the Mullah-too-too and Talbi-b@stard propaganda. And when that happens we do see horrible incidences like attacks on our vital institutions.

-- Even in that case desertions remain unheard of.

Mirza Sahib tussiii teiii NY which Starbuks sip kar raiii hoo gaiii sanuu kiyun marvanaa chandeii hooo ?

If 2014 pans out the way its been said to pan out.....Afghanistan is completely foOked but then so is Pakistan - The '90s were a bad time for us & post 2014 its going to be worst !
.. ?

Very nicely put.

Very nicely.


Many on this forum (Pakistan, India) have said good bye to their motherland.

And now live in load-shedding free apartments in the West.

But for some odd reason many of these guys are trying their best to bring Islamist or Indian hell to their motherland thus planning to turn into "mother-fing-land", like Afghanistanis, Arabs, and Somalians, and Sierrleonians, and Congolese have done already.

peace.

 

[FaujHistorian]

The Taliban will probably take over Afghanistan. It is not a question of if but when. Even though we don't share a border with Afghanistan, but will the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan have an impact on India? How will it effect the violence in Kashmir? will Taliban be sending Jihadis to Kashmir. We need to think ahead 5 to 10 years.

Wow. brother. Wow!

Where have you been all this time? perhaps doing intellectual work.

That now you can come and try to teach us something that may of us are missing for a long long time.

I said Hallelujah (praise the lord) and Amen when you stated (and I quote).

--- We need to think ahead 5 to 10 years

I wish you were running the MoD in India.


Coming back to your full post.

-- Let me state this unequivocally, that India and Pakistan stand to gain enormously if they sit and share their plans for 2013+ Afghanistan.

In the same instance


-- Let me state this unequivocally, that India and Pakistan stand to LOSE enormously if they DO NOT sit and share their plans for 2013+ Afghanistan.

Why?

You have already stated the reasons in a much better way that I could.

So

Thank you, Thank you Thank you.


peace to you. Peace to all.

 

[Pukhtoon]

Guys , lets have the objective analysis of possibility of Taliban to return to power in Kabul.(No wishes but only ground reality)

My take,

USA is negotiating with Taliban so this is ample proof that Taliban is going to get some power share with Afghan government. but what will be type of power share , be Taliban form part of central government or get control of some regions or get hizbollah model of Lebanon in which armed party co-exist with civilian parties ?

Advantage of ANA:

1. One thing is clear 2014 is not 1996.This time,Afghanistan has a better trained and better equipped Army i.e. ANA. Currently ANA has over 2 Lakh soldiers and most of them trained by NATO forces.

2. Most of Great and regional powers like USA,Russia,Iran and India wholeheartedly supports ANA.

3. China,India have won mining contracts in Afghanistan and last thing they want a civil war sort of thing in Afghanistan.

4. USA will have some bases left in Afghanistan to further train ANA and the bases would act as moral boost for ANA.

5.TTP, that is the new thing phenomenon in 2014 which was absent in 1990s.After USA withdrawal,TTP can setup it's bases in afghan side of Afghan-Pak border and let all hell loose in the Pakistan. ANA co-operation would be vital to keep check over TTP.

Advantage for the Talibans:

1. On the other hand , Taliban are formless and shapeless decentralized fighting force with high morale due to extreme religiosity.This form is very suitable for guerrilla fight and type of mountainous terrain in Afghan-Pak border would support such guerrilla war.

2. Pakistan do not even an independent Afghanistan leave aside any anti-Pak Afghans. Why? an independent Afghanistan do not recognize Durand line as international border.Even before 90s,Afghan ministers usually came FATA area and declare it as a part of Afghanistan.

3. Due to ideological match and geopolitical reasons, I think Saudi would favour Taliban which will act as check for Iranian influence in Afghanistan.

4. Currently,Border trade with Pakistan is vital for Afghan economy.

Conclusions:

1. Looking at examples of Libya and Syria,It is very very difficult to defeat a trained and disciplined army by guerrilla forces even with covert support with developed world.Until and unless support is active involvement (No fly zones) of foreign powers, Trained forces can not be defeated easily.

2. One may question the extent of discipline and morale in ANA,this has some valid points.But one may be look at other points , Pakistan can not provide active and open support to Talibans and powerful countries(USA and Russia) are backing ANA which is a rarity in modern world. So If ANA is no demon then it is no Lemon too!

3. Now there can two possibilities of violence in 2014 -one,this is more probable, some warlords of Taliban angry/unsatisfied with power share wage a war against ANA ,however this can be tackled with carrot and stick policy by ANA.

4. Second possibility,less probable in my eyes,Taliban wholeheartedly wage a total war against ANA. Now this will be serious concern for everyone.This war will go on atleast a Decade.In that decade,terrorist explosions will be in heard in Central asia,India or even Iran too.Terrorist activity would be much much severe in Pakistan (Remember TTP).Perhaps the biggest victim would be Afghan people.


Suggestions:
Afghan has a very rich and proud history in whole of South Asian region.They need to look at their past to realize who they were. In essence , Afghanistan needs nationalism which will be a boost the morale of ANA and it's people and get a worthy cause to fight the dreaded Talibans.


P.S. Please refrain from one liner reply,thank you

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10200191584655862

Answer is IF

 

[Yaduveer]

Very nicely put.

Very nicely.


Many on this forum (Pakistan, India) have said good bye to their motherland.

And now live in load-shedding free apartments in the West.

But for some odd reason many of these guys are trying their best to bring Islamist or Indian hell to their motherland thus planning to turn into "mother-fing-land", like Afghanistanis, Arabs, and Somalians, and Sierrleonians, and Congolese have done already.

peace.

You also put it very nicely too !

Let me give you my example , I am from a small city and sitting in front of a cooler while from last 2 hours electricity is gone. Only I know how it feel sweating out in summer without electricity.

When some Non-residential Indians gives utopian solution while sitting in load shedding free apartment in west,I feel like this .

Answer is IF

Why answering ? Did I ask you a question ?

Yun hi Khali fokat main oversmart banane ki aadat hai kya ?

 

[Pukhtoon]

You also put it very nicely too !

Let me give you my example , I am from a small city and sitting in front of a cooler while from last 2 hours electricity is gone. Only I know how it feel sweating out in summer without electricity.

When some Non-residential Indians gives utopian solution while sitting in load shedding free apartment in west,I feel like this .

Why answering ? Did I ask you a question ?

Yun hi Khali fokat main oversmart banane ki aadat hai kya ?

Video Check kar tuje tere Falsapey ki samjh aa jayee gi jo tuje nahi aa rahi..

ANA This and ANA that... ANA is just a $hit..

 

[Armstrong]

Video Check kar tuje tere Falsapey ki samjh aa jayee gi jo tuje nahi aa rahi..

ANA This and ANA that... ANA is just a $hit..

Abaiii zalim tu Malang ka dil touur deii gaaa !

 

[M.harris]

self delete

 

[Jaggu]

Wow. brother. Wow!

Where have you been all this time? perhaps doing intellectual work.

That now you can come and try to teach us something that may of us are missing for a long long time.

I said Hallelujah (praise the lord) and Amen when you stated (and I quote).

--- We need to think ahead 5 to 10 years

I wish you were running the MoD in India.


Coming back to your full post.

-- Let me state this unequivocally, that India and Pakistan stand to gain enormously if they sit and share their plans for 2013+ Afghanistan.

In the same instance


-- Let me state this unequivocally, that India and Pakistan stand to LOSE enormously if they DO NOT sit and share their plans for 2013+ Afghanistan.

Why?

You have already stated the reasons in a much better way that I could.

So

Thank you, Thank you Thank you.


peace to you. Peace to all.

Thanks brother. Even the US has now realized that the Taliban will eventually take over. They are talking about power sharing, but either way Taliban will take over. This takeover will impact all of South Asia because thousands of Taliban will then be free and will likely want to carry on fighting to another location. The only two likely locations are nearby in Central Asia and South Asia. How will it impact the Pakistani nation and it's society or even the TTP movement? for India it will surely impact the militancy in Kashmir since they will get a boost of battle hardened Pathan militants. Afghanistan is also near China, how will it impact it's vast Xinjiang province because I remember during the 90s reading about many Uighurs training in Afghanistan. So all of South, Central and Eastern Asia will likely feel an impact in the coming decade.