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PML-N to win elections, predicts The Economist

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PML-N to win elections, predicts The Economist

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Meanwhile, on the economic front, “A widening current account deficit and persistent budget shortfalls pose the biggest risks to macroeconomic stability in 2018-22,” which would be the term of the next government. PHOTO: EXPRESS/FILE

KARACHI : The Economist Intelligence Unit recently put out its new Country Report for Pakistan, and despite criticism of the state of the economy, the report does not predict fair tidings for opposition political parties come July.

The EIU predicts that risks to political stability will remain high in the run-up to the elections.

“We expect the PML-N (Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz) to be reelected on the back of a strong showing in Punjab, the most populous province,” the report says.

The authors do, however, urge caution, as “unfavourable court rulings, resurgent opposition parties and worsening relations with the judiciary and military have raised downside risks to this call.”

Shehbaz set to play his ‘political cards’ to pull PML-N out of crises

Meanwhile, on the economic front, “A widening current account deficit and persistent budget shortfalls pose the biggest risks to macroeconomic stability in 2018-22,” which would be the term of the next government.

The EIU also does not expect the ongoing political upheaval to sort itself out anytime soon. It “expects the outlook for political stability to remain poor in 2018-22,” citing disputes between the major players and parties that will intensify ahead of the election, and continue well after.

The report also predicts that the next prime minister of Pakistan will be Shehbaz Sharif, although “Nawaz Sharif will remain influential in the party”.

But no real change is expected on the drivers of foreign and security policies. “The military will continue to shape much of the country’s foreign and security policies.”

Nor does the report suggest any post-election let-up in the civil-military-judicial divide. “We expect ties between the civilian government, the military, and the judiciary to stay strained, posing an underlying risk to political stability.”

Meanwhile, on the economic front, it says that despite some improvements, the “parlous domestic security situation will remain a key source of instability in 2018-22,” undermining economic “growth potential by posing ongoing operational and strategic challenges to infrastructure projects.”

These projects would include China-Pakistan Economic Corridor related works and numerous other projects.

‘Dar misled Nawaz Sharif on economic issues’

Real GDP, on an expenditure basis, will expand by an annual average rate of 5.4 per cent per year until 2022, according to the EIU report.

“Growth will be underpinned by increases in consumption and the improved performance of exports relative to imports,” it explains.

It also says that large deficits on the fiscal and current accounts will pose major risks to macroeconomic stability throughout the 2018-22 period. Meanwhile, the current account deficit is expected to average the equivalent of 3.1 per cent of GDP over the same period.

EIU is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister company to The Economist newspape
 
Elections are near and you will say many so called PAID surveys like PILDAT so called Economist bla bla whom critera is to get money from the government, goto near raiwind palace and asked 3 4 people who are busy in working Shobaza and Nawaju project and thn come back and write a detail note that PMLN will win this elections ACCORDING to ECONOMIST lol
 
Mere rab tujhe duya karte hain kai ye pmln ka azab mere mulk par phir na laiyo.Mai shahid PAK na a sakon par dil dukhta hai wahan logon kai halat daikh kar.aur dil khun kai anso rota hai jb log itni takleef mai bhi inhi corrupt logon ko vote detai hai .Ya ALLAH in ki ankhon aur dillon par se ye mohr hata dajiye .Ameen!
 
IA pti will win if they donot make any blunders! All overseas pakis should come back on july to vote
 
congratulations to PMLN, spread this winning as much as you can.. We know how to take benefits out of it.
 

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